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#546682 - 06/12/18 10:43 AM A question for the weather experts
Hamwich Online   content

Talk Morgan Sage

Registered: 28/04/08
Posts: 6793
Loc: Gloucestershire, UK
Today's Met office forecast gives an outlook of 'Thick cloud' today at 12:00 with a 58% chance of precipitation.

At 14:00 the outlook is for 'Light Rain', but the chance of precipitation has dropped to only 37%

So if it's not the chance of precipitation actually occurring, what drives the selection of summary symbol?
_________________________
Tim H.
1986 4/4 VVTi Sport, 2002 LR Defender, 1957 R4 CV, 2005 Ferrari Vipar

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#546692 - 06/12/18 11:35 AM Re: A question for the weather experts [Re: Hamwich]
+8Rich Offline

Member of the Inner Circle

Registered: 15/12/09
Posts: 18195
Loc: Devon UK
There can be no other workers that get paid irrespective of continual poor results - sorry Bankers probably take the prize for that.
Like Bankers fortunately we don't rely on them either do we grin2 They're both like politics only ever a transitional period of minor irritation that passes like a good curry.

The only accurate weather forecast I get is by asking one of my local farmer friends they are very accurate, they need to be.
_________________________
Richard
1999 Indigo +8






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#546697 - 06/12/18 12:35 PM Re: A question for the weather experts [Re: Hamwich]
Neptune Offline

Just Getting Started

Registered: 05/09/16
Posts: 49
The one that really winds me up is 50%
The forecast predicts a 50% chance of rain/snow/other weather condition.
So basically they are saying it might or might not rain etc, talk about hedging your bets. 50% chance means they are guaranteed to be right
Grrrrrr

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#546701 - 06/12/18 12:43 PM Re: A question for the weather experts [Re: Hamwich]
Fat Wolfie Offline
New to Talk Morgan

Registered: 11/10/18
Posts: 23
Loc: West Yorkshire
The thing with weather forecasts on a TV is they spend half the time telling you what the weather has been like today.....which they do because you sit there thinking “yes, yes, quite right” etc.

Then when they tell you what it will be like tomorrow, you are in a positive frame of mind towards the presenter and more willing to accept what they are saying is true...then it doesn’t happen, but as the cycle repeats itself you fall for it again.

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#546702 - 06/12/18 12:51 PM Re: A question for the weather experts [Re: Hamwich]
recycled-teenager Offline

Has a lot to Say!

Registered: 17/06/12
Posts: 1269
Loc:
accuracy
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/who/accuracy/forecasts
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2018...e-bbc-rejection

Precipitation
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/news/in-depth/science-behind-probability-of-precipitation
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/guide/weather/symbols

I have a keen interest in weather and became a commercial Yacht Master in 1988 where met was a topic.

I think the met office does a good job especially with all the variables forecasting our island weather

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#546710 - 06/12/18 01:12 PM Re: A question for the weather experts [Re: Hamwich]
lowebird Offline
Talk Morgan Expert

Registered: 11/01/11
Posts: 2943
Loc: norfolk, UK
The best site I have found is "wind guru" This gives you hour by hour wind speed, gusts, rain, temp etc for a specific location. It has proved to be a great site for sailing and Morganing.
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Here for a good time not a long time!!
Reg

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#546724 - 06/12/18 02:27 PM Re: A question for the weather experts [Re: lowebird]
CooperMan Offline

Learner Plates Off!

Registered: 19/11/15
Posts: 485
Loc: Yorkshire
Originally Posted By lowebird
The best site I have found is "wind guru" This gives you hour by hour wind speed, gusts, rain, temp etc for a specific location. It has proved to be a great site for sailing and Morganing.


Any good for 'post curry consumption' forecast ? blush
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Jon M

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#546739 - 06/12/18 04:19 PM Re: A question for the weather experts [Re: CooperMan]
lowebird Offline
Talk Morgan Expert

Registered: 11/01/11
Posts: 2943
Loc: norfolk, UK
Originally Posted By CooperMan
Originally Posted By lowebird
The best site I have found is "wind guru" This gives you hour by hour wind speed, gusts, rain, temp etc for a specific location. It has proved to be a great site for sailing and Morganing.


Any good for 'post curry consumption' forecast ? blush


Didn't work after last nights effort!! exting
_________________________
Here for a good time not a long time!!
Reg

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#546752 - 06/12/18 05:17 PM Re: A question for the weather experts [Re: Neptune]
Graham, G4FUJ Offline
Salty Sea Dog
Member of the Inner Circle

Registered: 03/07/07
Posts: 21253
Loc: Cheltenham, Glos. UK
Originally Posted By Neptune
The one that really winds me up is 50%
The forecast predicts a 50% chance of rain/snow/other weather condition.
Grrrrrr

Slightly better. Local radio Pascagoula MS (so probably coming from NOLA) - "this afternoon there is a 50% probability of possible rain showers".
Fortunately, I wasn't driving. The shipping agent's driver couldn't understand why I was rofl
_________________________
Graham (G4FUJ)

D8921 L44FOR '93 4/4 Giallo Fly 2 seat smile
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#546779 - 06/12/18 07:52 PM Re: A question for the weather experts [Re: Hamwich]
auster Offline
Talk Morgan Regular

Registered: 28/03/15
Posts: 965
Loc: Vienna Austria
Originally Posted By Hamwich
Today's Met office forecast gives an outlook of 'Thick cloud' today at 12:00 with a 58% chance of precipitation.

At 14:00 the outlook is for 'Light Rain', but the chance of precipitation has dropped to only 37%

So if it's not the chance of precipitation actually occurring, what drives the selection of summary symbol?


Tim my meteorology course was 46 years ago so I'm a bit foggy on terminology these days and like the forecast, I'm not sure I will be much help. The language of forecasting is meant to be quite precise. "Thick cloud" was not in the vocabulary when I learnt but I keep hearing it being used. In my day oldgit it would be given its proper name; nimbus, stratus, CB etc. Thick cloud? How thick?

It's important to note that rain is rain, showers are showers and precipitation is precipitation. So if you are getting wet under a shower - that's not rain! Or if you are being precipitated upon, that could be either a shower or rain or sleet or snow. Light rain is likely to be consistent and over a significant period of time, unlike a shower. Precipitation can be any of the above. I think the forecast you have means they can't make up their minds. Best forecasts are those for aviation. Check out TAFs and METARS. I'll just put the anorak back on and head for bed now. umbrella
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1968 4/4 1600
1950 Auster J5B
Kitfox S5 Outback
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