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Not just China #618469
22/02/20 09:28 AM
22/02/20 09:28 AM
Joined: Sep 2011
Posts: 12,939
Mandello del Lario
Gambalunga Offline OP
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Gambalunga  Offline OP
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Posts: 12,939
Mandello del Lario
The Coronavirus COVID-19 seems to be spreading like wildfire. We now have a number of cases in a town south of Milan. A young man, very active in various sports, is now in hospital in a serious condition. He was in contact with a colleague who had returned from China a few weeks ago. The colleague has tested negative but had flu symptoms when he returned from China so they are now testing to see if he has antibodies of COVID-19. If this turns out to be the case he may have been a lightly effected carrier.

Tests have been performed at the hospital and in the town and so far 25 cases have been found. In the Veneto region one of the two cases which were hospitalised has died, a 78 year old man. This is the first death in Italy though there are a number seriously ill. As I write this two new cases have been hospitalised.

Moves are under way for all those who can to work from home and the town of Codogna south of Milan is now in quarantine and schools are closed. People who normally work out of town are officially on sick leave and all functions that involve any form of public attendance, funerals, weddings, sports events etc., have been suspended. People are advised to stay at home and if they must leave the house to wear a mask.

Unfortunately however it is too late as the genie is already out of the bottle. A train was stopped at Florence because a person from the zone effected started to feel ill. Equally unfortunately there have been cases of discrimination against anyone who appears to have Asian origins.


Peter

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Re: Not just China [Re: Gambalunga] #618470
22/02/20 10:18 AM
22/02/20 10:18 AM
Joined: Jul 2007
Posts: 15,211
Suffolk
John V6 Offline
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John V6  Offline
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Joined: Jul 2007
Posts: 15,211
Suffolk
Peter,
I find it difficult to know if this similar to flu so not a major threat or a major risk to life. nothing I read , see or hear confirms either viewpoint vs the regular deaths from normal flu.
But I also se some odd things like having an incubator cruise ship in Japan.
Time ill tell I guess but it has definitely spread around the world.
John


JohnV6
2006 Indigo Blue Roadster S1
Re: Not just China [Re: Gambalunga] #618471
22/02/20 10:32 AM
22/02/20 10:32 AM
Joined: Oct 2019
Posts: 359
Aberdeenshire
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Learner Plates Off!
Image  Offline
Learner Plates Off!

Joined: Oct 2019
Posts: 359
Aberdeenshire
John... I'm of the same mind..... Supposedly deaths are the old and infirm... Then fit young medical professionals die in spite of the best treatment..... Deaths are below those of 'normal' flu... But I seriously doubt the figures coming out of Chine..... There seems little firm information to base our response on.... I know we all have a habit of stereotyping (even if mildly) but trying to run quarantine on a packed cruise ship with no real prospect of preventing continuous cross-infection seemed such an obviously poor idea I suppose I expected more of Japanese efficiency and planning.

K

Re: Not just China [Re: Gambalunga] #618472
22/02/20 11:04 AM
22/02/20 11:04 AM
Joined: Aug 2013
Posts: 12,265
Salisbury, UK
Peter J Offline
Formerly known as Aldermog
Peter J  Offline
Formerly known as Aldermog
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Salisbury, UK
I've been following these stories and reading both "official" and unofficial stories.

My conclusions, so far:
1. there is something novel and different about this virus, in the way it infects people. This is the most worrying aspect.
2. There are many, many more people with COVID19 influenza than have been diagnosed.
3. Many deaths especially in old people, are mis-diagnosed as winter pneumonia, I'm not sure if this is deliberate, or not.
4. The quarantine restrictions are probably pointless and doing more damage to the global economy than they are good. The use of a cruise ship was crass stupidity from a disease control perspective.
5. Face masks are pointless, unless they are close fitting NBC grade, hand washing is far more important. Outside the home wash your hands, or use a gel every time you touch something that another person may have touched.
6. the media is causing people to panic, this is unhelpful.

The epidemic will run its course. We will know the actual death rate once it is all over.
My prediction is that it will double the anticipated deaths from winter flu, so another 150,000 to 200,000 dead, bringing the total for winter flu and COVID19 flu over 2019-2020 close to half a billion.


Peter,
Tarka the 'Otter Mog
2014 Plus 8


Re: Not just China [Re: Gambalunga] #618485
22/02/20 03:12 PM
22/02/20 03:12 PM
Joined: Sep 2011
Posts: 12,939
Mandello del Lario
Gambalunga Offline OP
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Gambalunga  Offline OP
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Posts: 12,939
Mandello del Lario
In just a few hours the number of reported cases in northern Italy has topped 50.

Another town near Padova has been placed in quarantine whilst residents are screened for contagion.

PS. The Minister for Health has just issued an ordinance that anyone who has been in contact with an known infected person must go into compulsory quarantine. This means no physical contact with anyone outside the house. Deliveries of necessities may be left at the door.

Last edited by Gambalunga; 22/02/20 03:24 PM.

Peter

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Re: Not just China [Re: Gambalunga] #618495
22/02/20 03:59 PM
22/02/20 03:59 PM
Joined: Jul 2011
Posts: 552
I
IcePack Offline
Talk Morgan Regular
IcePack  Offline
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I

Joined: Jul 2011
Posts: 552
Wondering why China appears to be withholding some statistics. I wonder if they hope to produce a vaccine and then market it themselves. Follow the money comes to mind.


4/4 Ivory 4.1:1 axle, Jaguar XE R-Sport.
Re: Not just China [Re: Gambalunga] #618496
22/02/20 04:00 PM
22/02/20 04:00 PM
Joined: Jul 2007
Posts: 15,211
Suffolk
John V6 Offline
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John V6  Offline
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Suffolk
Or if it is a biological weapon that got away


JohnV6
2006 Indigo Blue Roadster S1
Re: Not just China [Re: Gambalunga] #618502
22/02/20 04:19 PM
22/02/20 04:19 PM
Joined: Sep 2009
Posts: 4,716
Köln Germany
Heinz Offline
Part of the Furniture
Heinz  Offline
Part of the Furniture

Joined: Sep 2009
Posts: 4,716
Köln Germany
I don't want to get involved in conspiracy ideas. But on the other hand, it is already, let's say "uniform", as the virus is reported.
So I am not averse to at least taking note of other reports. I don't link such things here but an informative article (if it's wrong information can be decided by yourself) can be found by googling great game india corona.


'14 4/4 graphite grey
Re: Not just China [Re: Gambalunga] #618626
23/02/20 03:14 PM
23/02/20 03:14 PM
Joined: Sep 2011
Posts: 12,939
Mandello del Lario
Gambalunga Offline OP
Member of the Inner Circle
Gambalunga  Offline OP
Member of the Inner Circle

Joined: Sep 2011
Posts: 12,939
Mandello del Lario
Coronavirus, UPDATE: all schools in Piedmont, Lombardy and Veneto closed. Also Carnivale at Venice has been stopped by ordinance of the Governor.


Peter

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Re: Not just China [Re: Gambalunga] #618640
23/02/20 03:58 PM
23/02/20 03:58 PM
Joined: Mar 2009
Posts: 6,840
Hampshire
Alistair Offline
Smile, it confuses them
Alistair  Offline
Smile, it confuses them
Talk Morgan Sage

Joined: Mar 2009
Posts: 6,840
Hampshire
It made the front page of CNN today Peter. It said they have not yet found patient one which is the most disturbing.


Just time to burn a little more petrol before dinner.
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