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Re: Lockdown [Re: aerotaff] #666405
09/10/20 09:11 PM
09/10/20 09:11 PM
Joined: Sep 2011
Posts: 13,810
Mandello del Lario
Gambalunga Offline
Member of the Inner Circle
Gambalunga  Offline
Member of the Inner Circle

Joined: Sep 2011
Posts: 13,810
Mandello del Lario
Italy has just reported 5,372 new cases. I am more concerned about the number Hospitalised than new cases as many are asymptomatic and have been discovered because of the 129,471 swabs performed. At the moment the reports are of hospitals going into overload in Naples and Sicily, and to a lesser degree Rome.

Having said all that it is clear we are on the start of the so-called "second wave". There is also growing concern over the number of deaths not directly Covid related that are due to cancelled or unavailable care, missed chemotherapy, postponed operations, etc.

I feel sorry for people in the UK because you are now starting on the "second wave" without having really come out of the first.


Peter

[Linked Image]
Re: Lockdown [Re: Gambalunga] #666536
10/10/20 05:46 PM
10/10/20 05:46 PM
Joined: Aug 2013
Posts: 13,191
Salisbury, UK
Peter J Online happy
Formerly known as Aldermog
Peter J  Online Happy
Formerly known as Aldermog
Member of the Inner Circle

Joined: Aug 2013
Posts: 13,191
Salisbury, UK
Originally Posted by Gambalunga
I feel sorry for people in the UK because you are now starting on the "second wave" without having really come out of the first.


Depends where you live in the UK. Draw a line from the Wash to the Severn Estuary and below that line the first wave ended in June.
The second wave is, so far, largely confined to metropolitan areas above the line.
Will it spread south and east?
No one knows.

This is the picture today, Saturday. .

[Linked Image]

The scale is "Covid cases per million". Data is from King's College London and Zoe survey.
Why is the North and West regions so badly impacted?
There are no clear answers, so far.


Peter,
V8s are best....
Tarka the 'Otter Mog....2014 Plus 8
AMG C63 Estate.


Re: Lockdown [Re: Peter J] #666549
10/10/20 07:14 PM
10/10/20 07:14 PM
Joined: Apr 2014
Posts: 5,784
Renfrewshire
BobtheTrain Offline
Charter Member
BobtheTrain  Offline
Charter Member

Joined: Apr 2014
Posts: 5,784
Renfrewshire
Originally Posted by Peter J

Why is the North and West regions so badly impacted?
There are no clear answers, so far.


Possibly because they have lumped together a lot of Scotland which contains few people.


Best Regards
Lang may yer lum reek
Re: Lockdown [Re: aerotaff] #666574
10/10/20 09:27 PM
10/10/20 09:27 PM
Joined: Apr 2014
Posts: 4,801
Llanelli
Ray Online content
Part of the Furniture
Ray  Online Content
Part of the Furniture

Joined: Apr 2014
Posts: 4,801
Llanelli
Overpopulated.


.+8 Now gone for a 1800 4/4. Duratec in bright yellow.
Re: Lockdown [Re: Ray] #666584
10/10/20 10:17 PM
10/10/20 10:17 PM
Joined: Apr 2014
Posts: 5,784
Renfrewshire
BobtheTrain Offline
Charter Member
BobtheTrain  Offline
Charter Member

Joined: Apr 2014
Posts: 5,784
Renfrewshire
Originally Posted by Ray
Overpopulated.

?


Best Regards
Lang may yer lum reek
Re: Lockdown [Re: aerotaff] #666604
11/10/20 06:53 AM
11/10/20 06:53 AM
Joined: Apr 2019
Posts: 663
Lancashire
RobCol Offline
Talk Morgan Regular
RobCol  Offline
Talk Morgan Regular

Joined: Apr 2019
Posts: 663
Lancashire

Who do they pay to draw up theses maps? To quote Mark Twain “There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies and statistics.”

According to the map the remote farming communities of Rum, Muck and Eigg in the Western Isles have a higher lever of infection than Central London and indeed anywhere south of the Severn Wash line.

Is it any wonder people are confused and have a mistrust of statistics and what we are being told.


Rob

4/4 Sport Grey

Re: Lockdown [Re: Peter J] #666607
11/10/20 07:17 AM
11/10/20 07:17 AM
Joined: Apr 2008
Posts: 9,348
Gloucestershire, UK
Hamwich Offline
Needs to Get Out More!
Hamwich  Offline
Needs to Get Out More!

Joined: Apr 2008
Posts: 9,348
Gloucestershire, UK
Originally Posted by RobCol

Who do they pay to draw up theses maps? To quote Mark Twain “There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies and statistics.”

According to the map the remote farming communities of Rum, Muck and Eigg in the Western Isles have a higher lever of infection than Central London and indeed anywhere south of the Severn Wash line.

Is it any wonder people are confused and have a mistrust of statistics and what we are being told.


It's because these are infection rates, not levels of infection - as the rubric clearly indicates. It would possibly be more meaningful to weight the test rates by population density, but then people would have an even harder time deciphering what they are seeing.

Originally Posted by Peter J
Why is the North and West regions so badly impacted?
There are no clear answers, so far.


I suspect it's got a lot to do with socio-economic differences like average family sizes, ability to spend money on hygiene equipment/face masks etc, overall population density, and ability to understand/willingness to comply with social distancing.


Tim H.
1986 4/4 VVTi Sport, 2002 LR Defender, 1957 R4 CV, 2005 Ferrari Vipar
Re: Lockdown [Re: BobtheTrain] #666608
11/10/20 07:26 AM
11/10/20 07:26 AM
Joined: Apr 2014
Posts: 5,784
Renfrewshire
BobtheTrain Offline
Charter Member
BobtheTrain  Offline
Charter Member

Joined: Apr 2014
Posts: 5,784
Renfrewshire
Originally Posted by Peter J
Why is are the North and West regions so badly impacted?
There are no clear answers, so far.


Sorry, I missed it the first time.


Best Regards
Lang may yer lum reek
Re: Lockdown [Re: aerotaff] #666609
11/10/20 07:35 AM
11/10/20 07:35 AM
Joined: Jul 2015
Posts: 529
Reading
Rob Thornton Offline
Talk Morgan Regular
Rob Thornton  Offline
Talk Morgan Regular

Joined: Jul 2015
Posts: 529
Reading
Yes, very misleading even if 'technically' correct.
Presumably the problem comes because in the lesser populated but larger geographic areas a small community's outbreak is then shown across the authority's domain. If this smaller community is a low number it is also then, presumably, factored up to the 'cases per million' such that if five cases were identified in a community of, say, 1000 people this would be represented by the 5000 cases pm. colour.
For the map to be truly representative the algorithm would need to factor in densities of population and rationalise the community area boundaries to a level playing field of similar sized samples.
I would assume though that this is being done and that the map shown is just one of many representations prepared for the authorities to understand the problem as this next phase is developing.


Rob T
2001 Royal Ivory Plus 8
Re: Lockdown [Re: Gambalunga] #666610
11/10/20 08:06 AM
11/10/20 08:06 AM
Joined: Jan 2009
Posts: 4,970
howard Offline
Part of the Furniture
howard  Offline
Part of the Furniture

Joined: Jan 2009
Posts: 4,970
Originally Posted by Gambalunga


I feel sorry for people in the UK because you are now starting on the "second wave" without having really come out of the first.


You are mistaken. By early August the UK pattern was very low just as it then was in France and Spain. There is some debate as to whether what we are seeing now is simply the result of doing more tests per day than anywhere else in Europe - 250k typically. If you look harder you find more.

An Irish man's view on the situation https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LrRijSa8494&feature=emb_logo

Interesting that Italy seems to be doing better than most other major European countries. Wonder why.

Last edited by howard; 11/10/20 08:09 AM.
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