Sorry to dim the light slightly but it's not actually going to be petrol that's used.

Ultimately - yes it was a step change. But not initially. Speeds were in the same range for quite a while.

A major technology change often leads to a reduction in initial performance (Pagers had far better radio performance than mobile phones for quite a while). The new technology, once it becomes mainstream, will overtake in the areas that matter to most consumers although there will still be people who will hang on to something old for nostalgic or quality reasons (valve amplifiers for example).

Just a few examples:
Carburettors - replaced by Fuel Injection
Steam Railways - replaced by Diesel initially
Steam Ships - replaced by Diesel / Fuel Oil
Compact Disc - replaced by downloaded / streamed Music


EVs will get better. Batteries are already developing very quickly and the current state of battery development is delivering longer lifespans than predicted.

Today, EVs only move the point of pollution from the car to the power station which is not ideal. However, the rapid development of more and better power generation technology will, over time, deal with that issue. In the mean time, a shift to EVs will lead to lower pollution levels in our major cities - recognised to be a significant issue throughout Europe.

So we get the hydrogen from water, suck a bit of CO2 out of the atmosphere and convert it all the synthetic fuel. All we need to do now is miniturise the plant and stick it in the boot, then the old dream of running a car on a tank full of water becomes a reality

Then they will find a way to tax it.

Road pricing seems to be their preferred option here, as the revenue from fuels falls away.

Quite so Dave.

This is what's dishonest about the arguments of the cost-effectiveness of EV's, as it only costs a few quid to fill up. As soon as there has been significant take-up, the government will start taxing electricity use for cars in some way (likely, as you suggest through road-pricing) to replace the revenue lost from the decline in the sale of hydrocarbon fuel.

Interesting, but I think the report you are quoting covers transportation in general not just cars.
From https://www.autocar.co.uk/car-news/advice/how-national-grid-will-work-electric-cars

First off, energy demand is lower now than it has been for years. The highest demand in the last couple of decades peaked in 2002 at 62GW and has now fallen to just over 50GW thanks to improvements in efficiency. National Grid estimates that even if there was an overnight switch to EVs, the increase in overall demand would only amount to 10 percent. This year, due to Covid measures, demand has fallen by another five percent and National Grid ESO (Electricity System Operator) predicts 44.7GW peak demand this winter.

The UK capacity has also been closed down, all coal fired power stations are now being mothballed early. Recently we have a spell of calm windless weather and we had an acute shortage of electricity generation, leaving us scrambling for electricity supply. We are still reliant on the French supplying electricity via the The National Grid and its French counterpart, RTE, already own a 2GW interconnector between the two countries which has been in use since 1986.

Its cable provide a valuable source of energy at a time when coal-fired stations were being closed down and planned new gas and nuclear installations were yet to be built. However, we may see some capacity free up when the Irish interconnector (uses upto 10% of UK total capacity) is switched off as the Irish look to France with their new interconnector.

The UK is far from being self sufficient on electricity generation and leaves us exposed to becalmed weather, disputes and price hikes with our continental neighbours. Last projection I noted was that electricity demand would double by 2050.

In 2018 the UK remained a net importer of energy (all types, gas, electricity, oil and coal) at 36 per cent, down marginally from 2017. In 2018 the UK was a net importer of all main fuel types, we only produced 64% of our total energy needs.

To put 2018 energy consumption into context using a similar value ......for natural gas and electricity

Natural gas demand increased by 0.9 per cent to 881 TWh compared with 2017. In contrast, gas demand for transformation, including electricity and heat generation, was down 4.2 per cent on 2017.

Main electricity generation and supply statistics:

• There was a 0.3 per cent drop in the total supply of electricity in the UK in 2018, to 352 TWh, as demand fell. Indigenous electricity supply fell 1.6 per cent while net imports of electricity rose by 29 per cent, to 19.1 TWh, with a return to more typical imports from France following interconnector damage and a price spike in 2017. The UK remained a net importer of electricity in 2018.
• Final consumption of electricity was stable at 300 TWh, remaining at its lowest level

So to replace the natural gas with electricity for heating, electricity generation etc we have to generate an extra 881 TWh of electricty and in 2018 we produced domestically electricity generation of about 330 TWh,

That doesn't take into account the and not to mention the electricity to replace oil for transport.

If electricity has to replace the energy consumed from other sources eg oil, gas ,this is not resolved yet by any stretch of the imagination and lead in times for such major projects are not conducive to early resolution anytime soon..

The fact that our government allowed the nation's energy infrastructure assets to be sold off to foreign companies is indeed deeply concerning regarding our energy security, as des depending on foreign investment to develop more assets.

I think there might have been a bit of misinterpretation in your source for the 'doubled demand by 2050' thing. The National Grid strategy docs state we need 40GW of new capacity by 2050, but this is not in addition to the existing 40GW capacity, but as replacement for old kit going out of commission. There also seems to be a bit of misinformation/lack of understanding about what the energy sector is actually doing to ensure continuity of energy supply going forward. A very good source for an overview can be found here:

https://www.nationalgrideso.com/document/173821/download

For up to date information on the UK's demand and energy sources, Gridwatch is an excellent source, updated live from grid data.

https://gridwatch.co.uk

I spent the last 15 years of my career working in the UK electricity supply industry and am very happy to help in providing an analysis of information sources, they are not always quite as accurate as we might like to believe.

Tim,

I changed my post and included in from UK Government sources the 2018 UK Overall energy consumption and importation stats, unfortunately whilst you were responding. It amplifies in a common value energy consumption in TWh. All the sources I use are from either Government or Hansards. This isn't just electricity supply but all energy forms, and as we move away from fossil fuels something has to replace the energy in another form..
regards

OK, IF we were to try to replace 881TWh/year of gas consumption with centrally-generated electricity we would need a shedload more generation capacity than we currently have, but I don't know of any strategy document that is actually proposing that.

To my understanding the bulk of the replacement is planned to come from conversion to hydrogen, and other non-traditional gases like Biomethane. There is also usage reduction, heat pumps and localised CHP that are growing as alternatives.

This is a really useful overview of the current strategy in this area:

https://www.nationalgrid.com/sites/...trategy%20For%20Consultation%20Final.pdf

Interestingly, this document also touches on the potential to replace petrol/diesel used in transport with lower-carbon gas alternatives.

I'm not accusing you of this, but it does seem that there are some people out there loudly declaring that our climate target can never be met and that it's somehow nonsensical to try, whilst at the same time there are loads and loads of highly skilled and talented engineers in the energy industry who are quite happily figuring out and implementing ways of achieving it.

My particular involvement was in helping to design the new business models needed to support concepts like virtual power plants so that individual micro-generators can take an active part in the supply market through leveraging their investment in home solar, batteries, and EVs.

I can't help thinking that the fossil fuel lobby is responsible for peddling a lot of this negative spinning, I can't think who else's interests would be served by briefing against the truly innovative work being done by our energy scientists and engineers.



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