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Re: Petrol and diesel car ban 2030 [Re: Stringers Best Mate] #674734
25/11/20 07:53 PM
25/11/20 07:53 PM
Joined: Apr 2014
Posts: 5,869
Renfrewshire
BobtheTrain Offline
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BobtheTrain  Offline
Charter Member

Joined: Apr 2014
Posts: 5,869
Renfrewshire
Originally Posted by Stringers Best Mate
I think I'm on the wrong bus..

Great Glasgow "clippie" saying - "come oan, get aff."


Best Regards
Lang may yer lum reek
Re: Petrol and diesel car ban 2030 [Re: BobtheTrain] #674738
25/11/20 07:58 PM
25/11/20 07:58 PM
Joined: Jul 2007
Posts: 25,053
Cheltenham, Glos. UK
Graham, G4FUJ Offline
Salty Sea Dog
Graham, G4FUJ  Offline
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Joined: Jul 2007
Posts: 25,053
Cheltenham, Glos. UK
laugh2 laugh2


Graham (G4FUJ)

D8921 L44FOR '93 4/4 Giallo Fly 2 seat smile
'90 LR 90 SW
'06 Saab 9-3 Convertible
Re: Petrol and diesel car ban 2030 [Re: Hamwich] #674769
26/11/20 08:50 AM
26/11/20 08:50 AM
Joined: Aug 2020
Posts: 228
Lytham St Annes, Lancashire
J
JohnHarris Offline
L - Learner Plates On
JohnHarris  Offline
L - Learner Plates On
J

Joined: Aug 2020
Posts: 228
Lytham St Annes, Lancashire
Originally Posted by Hamwich
Originally Posted by JohnHarris
From time to time especially relating the the current size of the world population and climate change and its potential impacts, I am reminded of Thomas Robert Malthus FRS an English cleric, scholar and influential economist in the fields of political economy and demography.


Influential at the time maybe, but pretty much discredited now. What he didn't take into account is that (as we are seeing in western countries) as standards of living and education levels rise, the birth rate falls. Endless population increase until a crash is by no means inevitable. Current estimates are that it will top out around 10.9 billion by the end of this century.

https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-ta...-stop-growing-by-the-end-of-the-century/



Yes the birth rate does decline, but life expectancy increases, creating a much older population, which is usually less productive than the younger generation and usually consumes net more resources per capita. It been forecast by 2050 we will not be able to produce sufficient cereal and grain to feed to livestock to maintain the current levels of meat protein in our diet and will have to seek protein from elsewhere.

With the increases in desertification, land degradation and drought, rises in sea levels around key rice paddy areas of Asian river delta's its hard to see how the planet could even sustain the current population levels long term.
To put some personal prospective on it, I live by the sea a few hundred yards from the shore on reclaimed land from the sea, a few feet above sea level. Despite massive ongoing investment in sea defences the latest forecast for the first time ever shows by 2050 (favourite date) we will be a new Venice of the North............we see the effect of rising sea levels every time there is a really high tide or storm swell/surge, its advancing closer all the time.

regards








John

2006 4/4 70th (1972) Black LOKI
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Re: Petrol and diesel car ban 2030 [Re: Gambalunga] #674783
26/11/20 10:03 AM
26/11/20 10:03 AM
Joined: Sep 2015
Posts: 869
TheCustomer Offline
Talk Morgan Regular
TheCustomer  Offline
Talk Morgan Regular

Joined: Sep 2015
Posts: 869
Originally Posted by Gambalunga
Originally Posted by Paul F
Originally Posted by Hamwich

I can't help thinking that the fossil fuel lobby is responsible for peddling a lot of this negative spinning, I can't think who else's interests would be served by briefing against the truly innovative work being done by our energy scientists and engineers.


+1

The fossil fuel companies are busily buying into and/or researching alternate energy. After all the have to do something with all that dirty money.


(there's some spectacular thread drift below - well done chaps ;-)

Back to the topic in hand...

If you read DriveNation on Instagram, there's a recent interesting post on synthetic fuels. They're quoting strategy & execs from Porsche & Ferrari, inferring that 2030ish production will still include significant internal combustion engine production, powered by synthetic fuel. & that the price is currently forecast to be over $1.20 per litre in 2030, pre tax.

I wonder; if Formula 1 adopts synthetic fuels - which seems to be the plan from c2025 - just how quickly would that speed synthetic fuel development?

Or should we all run our cars on Red Bull?

Will


Aero 8 S5
BMW i8 Coupe
Triumph Stag '72
Re: Petrol and diesel car ban 2030 [Re: JohnHarris] #674784
26/11/20 10:23 AM
26/11/20 10:23 AM
Joined: Apr 2008
Posts: 9,543
Gloucestershire, UK
Hamwich Online content
Needs to Get Out More!
Hamwich  Online Content
Needs to Get Out More!

Joined: Apr 2008
Posts: 9,543
Gloucestershire, UK
Originally Posted by JohnHarris
It been forecast by 2050 we will not be able to produce sufficient cereal and grain to feed to livestock to maintain the current levels of meat protein in our diet and will have to seek protein from elsewhere.


Certainly the lives of those on diets high in meat protein is going to have to change one that is primarily plant-based. And as you say, rising sea levels are going to be highly problematic, creating many millions of refugees that are going to have to be accommodated on higher ground, leading to further pressure on farmland. But it's important to recognise that the issue is primarily not of resource availability so much as resource distribution, those of us in the 'advanced' societies are consuming a massively disproportionate share of the world's resources.

https://cdn.friendsoftheearth.uk/sites/default/files/downloads/overconsumption.pdf

https://populationmatters.org/the-facts/resources-consumption


Tim H.
1986 4/4 VVTi Sport, 2002 LR Defender, 1957 R4 CV, 2005 Ferrari Vipar
Re: Petrol and diesel car ban 2030 [Re: Stringers Best Mate] #674786
26/11/20 10:36 AM
26/11/20 10:36 AM
Joined: Aug 2013
Posts: 642
R
Rovert Online content
Talk Morgan Regular
Rovert  Online Content
Talk Morgan Regular
R

Joined: Aug 2013
Posts: 642
Originally Posted by Stringers Best Mate
Originally Posted by Rovert
Originally Posted by Stringers Best Mate
I think I'm on the wrong bus..

From Brave New World Steve.

A popular, but incorrect view of Malthus' theory was that he predicted exponential population growth hence In BNW Malthusian drill was Contraceptive drill a Freebird is a sterile woman.


Excellent stuff, then..

Does anyone know who won Bakeoff..?

laugh2 laugh2 laugh2 laugh2


Brian
Jersey and Spain
Re: Petrol and diesel car ban 2030 [Re: Hamwich] #674797
26/11/20 12:11 PM
26/11/20 12:11 PM
Joined: Aug 2020
Posts: 228
Lytham St Annes, Lancashire
J
JohnHarris Offline
L - Learner Plates On
JohnHarris  Offline
L - Learner Plates On
J

Joined: Aug 2020
Posts: 228
Lytham St Annes, Lancashire
Originally Posted by Hamwich
Originally Posted by JohnHarris
It been forecast by 2050 we will not be able to produce sufficient cereal and grain to feed to livestock to maintain the current levels of meat protein in our diet and will have to seek protein from elsewhere.


Certainly the lives of those on diets high in meat protein is going to have to change one that is primarily plant-based. And as you say, rising sea levels are going to be highly problematic, creating many millions of refugees that are going to have to be accommodated on higher ground, leading to further pressure on farmland. But it's important to recognise that the issue is primarily not of resource availability so much as resource distribution, those of us in the 'advanced' societies are consuming a massively disproportionate share of the world's resources.

https://cdn.friendsoftheearth.uk/sites/default/files/downloads/overconsumption.pdf

https://populationmatters.org/the-facts/resources-consumption


Don't disagree, the cultural shock for advanced societies is going to be far greater than people realise.....history is littered with and has many examples of the problems and unrest created by taking 'something' away from someone who has a sense of entitlement and privilege to that resource, made worse if its something as basic as food and energy sources. Mass migration will be on an unprecedented scale, and increasing focus will go on food and energy security. Thank goodness in my hopefully long lifetime I can say I left the planet in a cleaner less polluted state than the one I came into. but zero net carbon highly unlikely.Global warming is seen as a post industrialisation phenomenon, however it goes back a few centuries earlier when higher carbon levels were produced as we intensified farming and opened up eg common land.

Coming back to the topic in hand, it puts our discussions around what fuels/energy will replaced fossil fuels into context.......any low carbon synthetic fuel with still enable us to indulge our passions without having to completely rebuild all of our infrastructure at enormous cost and use of resources for really little benefit, as the conversion process will generate considerable amounts new pollution within the manufacturing process for limited gains in the short term. To illustrate, I seem to remember a case study from my school days now well over 50/60 years old now, that suggested the total energy consumed in the building of a coal power station (transportation, steel and concrete production, building construction etc.) required the first 2O years energy generation of the power station to payback the total energy consumed in its construction...............that's why it is preferable to use current technology made cleaner and more efficient.



regards

Last edited by JohnHarris; 26/11/20 12:40 PM.

John

2006 4/4 70th (1972) Black LOKI
prev 1977 4/4 4 seater Green SEAMUS
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Re: Petrol and diesel car ban 2030 [Re: SFO] #674907
26/11/20 11:12 PM
26/11/20 11:12 PM
Joined: Sep 2011
Posts: 13,832
Mandello del Lario
Gambalunga Offline
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Gambalunga  Offline
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Posts: 13,832
Mandello del Lario
Carbon neutral fuel?

So we want to convert carbon dioxide into a combustible fuel. Which, in turn, when burned, will replace that valuable CO2 in the atmosphere. Why valuable? Well we wouldn't have much to eat without CO2 in the atmosphere would we.

Strangely plants have been performing this very function for millions of years so obviously the tree huggers are correct. We need more trees, and other plants, to soak up all that surplus CO2.

Now since things are somewhat fixed in this world there has always been a lot of carbon about but there was once more than really suited humans so mother nature locked it up in fossil fuels which we have been busily turning into CO2 and putting it back into the atmosphere.

So the answer is obvious, is it not, plant a whole lot of oil producing plants to capture all that excess CO2 in the atmosphere and then turn that plant oil into synthetic fuel. We then burn that synthetic fuel in our car engines and put the CO2 back into the atmosphere to help the plants grow.

I think I could do my bit for this virtuous cycle and happily burn some 95 octane synthetic fuel smile


Peter

[Linked Image]
Re: Petrol and diesel car ban 2030 [Re: SFO] #674941
27/11/20 09:17 AM
27/11/20 09:17 AM
Joined: Jul 2007
Posts: 18,783
Suffolk
John V6 Online content
Member of the Inner Circle
John V6  Online Content
Member of the Inner Circle

Joined: Jul 2007
Posts: 18,783
Suffolk
Finally someone busts the zero emissions bull dermot.
EV create more CO2 than ICE cars


JohnV6
2006 Indigo Blue Roadster S1
2014 Brooklands Edition Roadster "Brookland's Belle" #5 of 50
Re: Petrol and diesel car ban 2030 [Re: SFO] #674944
27/11/20 09:21 AM
27/11/20 09:21 AM
Joined: Jul 2011
Posts: 681
I
IcePack Offline
Talk Morgan Regular
IcePack  Offline
Talk Morgan Regular
I

Joined: Jul 2011
Posts: 681
I often wonder if Tesla got it right. Certainly his electric motor is proving to be a masterpiece. Would the wold have been a cleaner place if his electrical distribution had been allowed more development and it worked.


4/4 Ivory 4.1:1 axle, Jaguar XE R-Sport.
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