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Re: Vaccination update [Re: DaveW] #695413
25/03/21 09:39 AM
25/03/21 09:39 AM
Joined: Dec 2018
Posts: 1,172
North of Stamford, UK
HeadlessBlue Offline
Has a lot to Say!
HeadlessBlue  Offline
Has a lot to Say!

Joined: Dec 2018
Posts: 1,172
North of Stamford, UK
Thanks for the responses. Of course, things like the flu in 1918 and plague etc were things we’ve learnt about at school etc but I wonder if it is because of sochal meeja and modern science (meaning we have to ability to create vaccines and treatment) that the world appears to have come to a crashing halt and stopped spinning?
I guess my question more related to the appearance at least that, since the Spanish Flu, it has taken another 100 years or so for such a significant and rapidly spreading, human destroying virus to have mutated and jumped across to humans (or wherever it came from). Aside from things such as Ebola and bird flu (which appeared to be relatively contained by comparison), we have seen in 12 months already at least 5 mutations alone of this one virus (and probably 100’s more not yet detected)
Just general pondering that’s all...
HB


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Re: Vaccination update [Re: DaveW] #695415
25/03/21 10:05 AM
25/03/21 10:05 AM
Joined: Nov 2015
Posts: 4,055
Northern Capital of Cool
CooperMan Offline
Just barreling along
CooperMan  Offline
Just barreling along
Part of the Furniture

Joined: Nov 2015
Posts: 4,055
Northern Capital of Cool
I jogged past our local park yesterday, late afternoon, sunny intervals, there were literally hundreds of people sat on the grass in groups of two up to perhaps a dozen, mainly teenage and early 20's and, unless their mother performed a miracle they can't be from the same family

As I understand it we are still in some form of lockdown, the Stay at Home order is still in place, you can only meet one other person outside your family bubble

These people and many others are taking the p**s, they have not been vaccinated & will cause the spread of the next variant, spoiling life for those of us who care about the wider society and stick to the rules, apologies, rant over


Jon M
Re: Vaccination update [Re: SFO] #695417
25/03/21 10:23 AM
25/03/21 10:23 AM
Joined: Oct 2015
Posts: 96
Malvern UK
Aeromax51 Offline
Just Getting Started
Aeromax51  Offline
Just Getting Started

Joined: Oct 2015
Posts: 96
Malvern UK
Originally Posted by SFO
Originally Posted by Aeromax51
a new vaccine resistant virus variant if and when it is generated


how likely is this? Seems like vaccines are essentially as effective against all variants as the "original variant" thus far?


We will only know the risk of a new variant with reduced/possibly no sensitivity to currently licensed vaccines when the first cycle of vaccination has been completed (ie: all those over 18 have been vaccinated) and we can also see the level of daily new infections occurring when this has happened. The other important piece of information that is need in order to model risk with any degree of evidence base to predict the likely time until such an 'escape' variant might appear and start to circulate widely in the vaccinated population because of its selective advantage is what fraction of the total daily new infections are occurring in people previously vaccinated. This is required because although clinical trials of the vaccine gave efficacy values for protection against serious disease and death they were not designed to give a quantative value for protection from infection. Without a reasonably accurate estimate of this value it is not possible to build good predictive mathematical models of the risk of such variants arising over time. Yes you can build models that deal with the extremes ie: vaccination completely blocks infection or blocks only disease with no protection from infection but these are of little value other than engendering extreme anxiety or extreme complacency depending on which of the two you choose to believe. It is known from other viral vaccines it is known that they usually give some protection against infection but the practical value of that in terms of eliminating infection from a defined geographical region, that is changing it from always being present in the region ( a so-called endemic infection) to one that is periodically re-introduced (a so-called epidemic infection) is dependent on the infectiousness of the virus in question. So for example in the case of the poliovirus vaccines, if vaccine coverage of ~50% can be achieved infection can be and has been eliminated can endemic disease from all but two countries (Pakistan and Afghanistan) and hopefully through the sterling efforts of the WHO will be the 2nd human infection to be globally eradicated within the next few years. By contrast the much more infectious measles virus requires >95% vaccine coverage to remove it as an endemic infection hence the problems in the UK after the Andrew Wakefield debacle at the turn of the century when the reduction in MMR vaccine uptake saw measles (a disease that stills kills tens of thousands of children globally each year) continuing to re-occur in the UK with resultant loss of the UK's status as being free of measles infection risk!

Turning to the effectiveness of current vaccines against variants that have already been seen, I am afraid that unfortunately your statement is not correct. There is already data from small and somewhat flawed South African trial that suggests that the Pfizer-BioNtec vaccine has reduced efficacy against the so-called South African variant (B.1.351). There are also lab based data that show antibodies raised by currently licensed vaccines have reduced effectiveness against the so-called Brazilian (P.1) variant. This has prompted the vaccine companies to start work on modifying their vaccines to provide 'booster' vaccines that could be used to improve/maintain efficacy against these variants. Whether such boosters will be needed/used will depend on what levels of these variants are seen in highly vaccinated populations such as the UKs.

Hope these clarifications are informative and useful.

Stay safe

Malcolm

smile smile

Re: Vaccination update [Re: DaveW] #695438
25/03/21 12:53 PM
25/03/21 12:53 PM
Joined: Mar 2009
Posts: 8,759
Hampshire
Alistair Offline
Smile, it confuses them
Alistair  Offline
Smile, it confuses them
Needs to Get Out More!

Joined: Mar 2009
Posts: 8,759
Hampshire
I sat back and had a little think on the first annual holiday of this snafu. I wanted to think of some positives if possible. It was a short list but in truth not a bad one.

I am lucky to work in IT and therefore an industry that has not suffered like many.
I had us prepared for WFH early on thanks to many comments from Peter in Italy among other sources and am thankful.
We were able to work well from home as a small team and it actually bought good focus and work results for most of us.
Using Teams and 300 other V/C tools (all of which make me even uglier I swear) we remained in touch and supportive for our customers.
Some did show signs of stress and isolation but the team spirit has probably made us a stronger unit now.
I also enjoyed removing 2*1hour daily commutes. Lots of eco/personal/cost benefits there!
We avoided wasting a lot of money on needless shopping (okay the prime cardboard mountain did expand a bit)

So when things change again a lot of those will likely stay.
It has in some ways improved our situation by letting us spend more time together.

Loads of negatives, Monster-in-Law is approaching end of life and we are unable to help her as much as we want/need to. It's difficult to thank some of the caring professional enough in these times. Travel for holiday also being eliminated does make it a little bit pressure cooker and I thank my lucky stars for having a patient and caring wife.

As the results of the vaccination program kick in and more liberty is afforded I hope things do not just go back as they were. I hope that travel becomes less generally where it is practical for a persons trade. This is especially valuable for ecology and emissions but also makes private travel all the more enjoyable as a result. But only once the vaccine has become global, until then I would technically welcome closing the ports and airports to speed the control of this evil thing. I wish that had been made mandatory sooner.

Right everybody all together now "always look on the bright side of life"


Just time to burn a little more petrol before dinner.
Re: Vaccination update [Re: SFO] #695443
25/03/21 01:38 PM
25/03/21 01:38 PM
Joined: Oct 2015
Posts: 96
Malvern UK
Aeromax51 Offline
Just Getting Started
Aeromax51  Offline
Just Getting Started

Joined: Oct 2015
Posts: 96
Malvern UK
Originally Posted by SFO
Originally Posted by Aeromax51
death in those over 50 who have accounted for all but ~1200 of the deaths seen in the UK to-date.


The vast majority of these folks have all been vaccinated with the 1st dose, and over 2.5m with both doses, so the risk of NHS being overwhelmed is eliminated, isn't it?



I wish things could be so absolute in relation to a new deadly infectious disease. If nothing changes going forward then yes the risk of the NHS being overwhelmed should have been eliminated. However, the chance that everywhere in the world will be in the relatively safe position that the UK is approaching, with its fantastically successful vaccine role out, in the next couple of years is as close to zero as makes no difference. Consequently there will be a remaining risk that new virus variants able to escape the current vaccine based protection will arrive and the selective pressure on the virus driving the appearance and spread of such variants will be maximised in those countries, such as the UK, whose population have the highest level vaccine based protection. If such variants arise then we are essentially in a foot race between the development and deployment of new vaccines able to combat such variants and the spread of the new variant in the population and this will dictate whether we return to a situation in which the NHS approaches being overwhelmed.

If you want an example of our relative success in such a foot race, you need look no further than influenza virus. At the end of each winter a decision is taken on what new virus variant circulated in the past winter and that variant forms the basis for developing a modified influenza vaccine to be used as a booster vaccine for those of us of advancing years in the autumn to maximise the level of protection against influenza virus based disease in the coming winter. Despite the success of running this foot race we are still faced with 8-10000 influenza virus based deaths in a typical UK winter.


Again, hope this is informative and useful.

Best regards and stay safe.


Malcolm

smile smile

Re: Vaccination update [Re: DaveW] #695454
25/03/21 02:52 PM
25/03/21 02:52 PM
Joined: Oct 2011
Posts: 1,139
S
SFO Offline
Has a lot to Say!
SFO  Offline
Has a lot to Say!
S

Joined: Oct 2011
Posts: 1,139
@aeromax51 - thanks for very informative views.

Ultimately, judgments on what lockdown measures are needed must be based on the balance of risks of new variants and NHS being overwhelmed against damage to people's livelihoods, mental well being, education and physical health. Must be like a stab in the dark when so much is difficult or impossible to quantify.

However, IMO, we cannot hide away from CV19 forever, and we must get used to the fact that life is a risk, and not try to reduce or eliminate one risk (CV19) without full and thorough consideration of other risks.

Re: Vaccination update [Re: DaveW] #695464
25/03/21 05:06 PM
25/03/21 05:06 PM
Joined: Aug 2013
Posts: 14,232
Salisbury, UK
Peter J Offline
Formerly known as Aldermog
Peter J  Offline
Formerly known as Aldermog
Member of the Inner Circle

Joined: Aug 2013
Posts: 14,232
Salisbury, UK
Alistair described the last year as something of a snafu. We may have got onto a well managed track, but the EC has excelled itself today.
Acting on information from the EC Procurement lot the Italian Special Police, usually used to deal with organised crime, raided a vaccine packaging sub contractor working for AZ, where they expected to find 39 million doses of vaccine ready for shipment to the UK.
They found the vials, all ready to be sent to the AZ European Distribution centre in Belgium, for distribution across the EU.

You really couldn't make it up.

It was reported in the Telegraph, but it is behind a paywall: I have a pdf saved, pm me with your e-mail if you would like a copy.


Peter,
Power Corrupts.....
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Re: Vaccination update [Re: DaveW] #695471
25/03/21 05:55 PM
25/03/21 05:55 PM
Joined: Jul 2007
Posts: 20,760
Suffolk
John V6 Offline
Brooklands Register contact
John V6  Offline
Brooklands Register contact
Member of the Inner Circle

Joined: Jul 2007
Posts: 20,760
Suffolk
Peter, exactly just when a Belgian MEP was pronouncing that AZ were difficult to deal with. I hope the voters in the EU (those left alive) vote these idiots out.


JohnV6
2014 Brooklands Edition Roadster "Brookland's Belle" #5 of 50
Re: Vaccination update [Re: DaveW] #695494
25/03/21 08:23 PM
25/03/21 08:23 PM
Joined: May 2019
Posts: 381
Hampshire, UK
I
IMHO Offline
Learner Plates Off!
IMHO  Offline
Learner Plates Off!
I

Joined: May 2019
Posts: 381
Hampshire, UK
It’s sad that the European Vaccine War continues to rumble-on. AZ has apparently decided against ever offering vaccines at zero profit again - due to the multiple falsehoods from European political leaders about their products. A French EU Commissioner was apparently responsible for the raid in Italy. doh


M3W Brooklands (2015)
Moody 41 (2013)
Re: Vaccination update [Re: DaveW] #695495
25/03/21 08:44 PM
25/03/21 08:44 PM
Joined: May 2019
Posts: 381
Hampshire, UK
I
IMHO Offline
Learner Plates Off!
IMHO  Offline
Learner Plates Off!
I

Joined: May 2019
Posts: 381
Hampshire, UK
While I’m on a rant; it appears the EU know they have no basis for legally challenging AZs production levels, otherwise they’d rush to court as is their usual way. Any competent commercial negotiator knows the difference between “reasonable best endeavours” and “best endeavours”. Their only answer to their own bureaucratic incompetence is to snipe and create doubt about the AZ vaccine, totally childish. redcard


M3W Brooklands (2015)
Moody 41 (2013)
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