Talk Morgan

does anyone understand the covid rules?

Posted By: howard

does anyone understand the covid rules? - 09/09/20 07:58 AM

Because I dont. Here in England this mornings news is that social gatherings of more than 6 people will be illegal from the 15th. But pubs remain open and no pub is viable on a maximum capacity of 6 people. So does anyone know when being in a pub with other people becomes a "social gathering" as opposed to just being there? Is it when people talk to each other? Is it when they are closer than 2m? Is it simply when they know each other? And if so how well do they need to know each other? We have a planned lunch involving two tables of 4 people. Is that socialising?

I suppose we could move our lunch across the border into Wales where up to 4 households can form an extended household and have lunch together? Avoiding Caerphilly of course, where most things are banned - but then who would want to go there?

OK I am old but I am university educated and reasonably literate. If I cant understand the rules, who can? Why is the communication from the civil service ( I dont for a moment think that ministers write these rules themselves) so apallingly bad?
Posted By: BobtheTrain

Re: does anyone understand the covid rules? - 09/09/20 08:04 AM

Originally Posted by howard
Why is the communication from the civil service ( I dont for a moment think that ministers write these rules themselves) so apallingly bad?

You've never watched "Yes, Minister"?
Posted By: Hamwich

Re: does anyone understand the covid rules? - 09/09/20 08:16 AM

A pub can have more than 6 people in it, but they cannot be in groups of more than 6 - so 6 people on one table, for example. Groups must be >2m apart.

So your 2 tables of 4 people can go ahead, but the two tables must be distanced.

It doesn't apply to businesses and offices because the virus understands the importance of these environments to the economy and so has agreed not to spread in these places.
Posted By: brownbaker

Re: does anyone understand the covid rules? - 09/09/20 08:20 AM

Here is the Welsh Guidelines.
Read about extended households.
Totally confusing!
Also no masks need to be worn in shops
https://gov.wales/coronavirus-regulations-guidance#section-39235
Posted By: TBM

Re: does anyone understand the covid rules? - 09/09/20 08:20 AM

Being a classroom with 32 kids and 2 adults - OK
Sat on a crowded bus/train/tube - OK
Sat in an office for 7+ hours with other people - OK

Meeting with 7 of those colleagues or friends socially - Not OK
Posted By: Alistair

Re: does anyone understand the covid rules? - 09/09/20 08:25 AM

I think your frustration is felt by most of us Howard.

1. What Bob said. It was not a light entertainment program at all. It was a advertisement to entice sadists to join the civil service. It took me ages to realise it was a recruiting tactic. After all none of it could possibly be real could it. Actually maybe is was their operating procedures made real? Explains why they have never released a new version and the procedures have yet to see change?

2. I think I understood it but that was on one day about three weeks ago. I was also standing in a different county.

3. I have lost confidence in them so make my own more conservative rules up which include gloves and a face mask pretty much everywhere there is public mingling. This is going to go on for a while yet so the best thing they can do is lower the panic tone on the press and set normal.

Lets face it if someone ever calls their card all they need to do is point at one of the three different contradicting releases made every day and they are home free. This may be a ploy Cummings was testing some time back, it seems to have worked for him as he still has a job despite being a hyena.
Posted By: DaveW

Re: does anyone understand the covid rules? - 09/09/20 08:26 AM

Well, right now around 2,500 people a day don't understand the rules enough to avoid getting infected.

Unfortunately there's a massive lack of common sense around, and for that there's no cure either.

Not wearing masks anywhere is popular around here. Car sharing, hanging around in groups drinking and so on.

Let's face it, adults shouldn't need rules, especially if long term ill health or death is the outcome.
Posted By: TBM

Re: does anyone understand the covid rules? - 09/09/20 08:39 AM

Common sense tells me that my school is a petri dish, and spending hours at a time in a confined space with 34 other people, when I have absolutely no idea of their wider social groups and the personal precautions they are taking, is absolutely ludicrous.

Common sense tells me that I should be wearing a hazmat suit at worst, or staying as far away as possible at best.

Government 'rules' tell me that school attendance is mandatory for all children, and the use of PPE is not required (or even allowed) in the classroom.
Posted By: DaveW

Re: does anyone understand the covid rules? - 09/09/20 08:43 AM

^^This is why I consider myself so lucky to be retired. Otherwise I would face a daily rail commute, and an office where managers are bereft of common sense. And that's putting it mildly.
Posted By: Alistair

Re: does anyone understand the covid rules? - 09/09/20 08:44 AM

Well TBM its good news in some ways, the hazmat suit will fit over the anti-stab vest comfortably ooo
Posted By: TBM

Re: does anyone understand the covid rules? - 09/09/20 08:56 AM

Originally Posted by Alistair
Well TBM its good news in some ways, the hazmat suit will fit over the anti-stab vest comfortably ooo


You jest, but we had a knife/machete incident yesterday, so needed one of them as well. Thankfully we contained it and the boys in blue turned up in time.
Posted By: howard

Re: does anyone understand the covid rules? - 09/09/20 08:58 AM

Originally Posted by Hamwich
A pub can have more than 6 people in it, but they cannot be in groups of more than 6 - so 6 people on one table, for example. Groups must be >2m apart.

So your 2 tables of 4 people can go ahead, but the two tables must be distanced.

It doesn't apply to businesses and offices because the virus understands the importance of these environments to the economy and so has agreed not to spread in these places.


But that doesnt explain " social gathering" does it. For example, if my local classic car club arranged a meeting of 20 people in a pub, with groups of 4 or 6 per table 2m apart, is that a social gathering? Does it become one if we chat over that 2 m distance - those of us without hearing aids that is. If it is a social gathering how is it more of a virus risk than a similar situation not organised by a club and where the tables dont know each other. Does it stop being a social gathering if we all wear masks?

And then there is the bubble question. How long is a bubble a bubble? If you form a bubble are you in it for life or as long as the virus lasts? Or for a week or a day? Or can you move from bubble to bubble with each meal course? Anyone know? I would have thought that a bubble wiould be the same for the gestation perion od in infection but how long is that? 6 days or two weeks?
Posted By: CooperMan

Re: does anyone understand the covid rules? - 09/09/20 09:06 AM

Originally Posted by brownbaker
Here is the Welsh Guidelines.
Read about extended households.
Totally confusing!
Also no masks need to be worn in shops
https://gov.wales/coronavirus-regulations-guidance#section-39235


We did a little Mog tour in Wales last week, our base was great, the owner had done a proper Covid / H&S assessment and made sure visitors complied, each suite had it's own separate entrance, breakfast served to your room if you wanted

We called into one coastal town for a comfort stop & some shopping, and I was very uncomfortable with the lack of mask wearing by the public, we stood outside a bakers which had a max 3 people sign, patiently waited with masks on to enter when the customer numbers had dropped, the owner was wearing a mask & face shield, paid up left, walked back past the same shop 10 minutes later & it was packed with perhaps a dozen locals, not one with a mask
Posted By: Alistair

Re: does anyone understand the covid rules? - 09/09/20 09:07 AM

Sorry to hear that, I was not jesting as I do know a couple of teachers and they say that retirement cannot come fast enough given the way things have changed. It is the same for fire and ambulance staff. As if their jobs were not exciting enough already?

You could almost see a Not-the-nine-o'clock-news sketch self populating.

Two kids fighting.
One draws a knife.
A teacher walks in and shouts to control things.
The head walks in and starts asking the boys to social distance or he will have to call the health and safety officer.

Buts it okay as we are not involving colour, religion or sexual orientation in making these decisions so the world is clearly a better place than it was ten years ago.
Posted By: howard

Re: does anyone understand the covid rules? - 09/09/20 09:13 AM

Originally Posted by Alistair

Buts it okay as we are not involving colour, religion or sexual orientation in making these decisions so the world is clearly a better place than it was ten years ago.


I did a years supply teaching some 40 years ago and the stories of violence and chaos that I hear these days are no different to those I experienced. Kids, particualry from the sink estates / single parents / drunkn druggie parents need house training
Posted By: Alistair

Re: does anyone understand the covid rules? - 09/09/20 09:17 AM

Howard you need to get a role commenting for the guardian with comments like that ! rofl
Posted By: PhilRoyle

Re: does anyone understand the covid rules? - 09/09/20 10:08 AM

A simplification of the rules as I see it.
If there is a chip & pin machine there or money to be made/saved - anything goes
Otherwise you are limited to 6 people.

Or am I getting even more cynical? soapbox
Posted By: Rob Thornton

Re: does anyone understand the covid rules? - 09/09/20 10:22 AM

I suspect that definitive rules would be impossible to provide unless they were draconian. I would imagine that the target audiences of this latest advice are the people who have routinely ignored earlier advice about social distancing in particular, e.g younger pub and party-goers and certain social family groups. Yes, we can all find examples that seem incongruous but my own observations on public transport are that they are not running anywhere near capacity generally and from what I hear most offices seem to be able to provide reasonable space and the necessary precautions. In the end its about reducing risk rather than eliminating it I guess.

The worrying trend among the young is the belief that a, the problem doesn't apply to them and b, that the consequences for others that they may have contact with are totally over exaggerated. Conspiracy theories abound on their social media. The latest 'generic' guidance is more likely to make them think about how they go about their social lives and make transgression easier to spot.

It is pretty obvious from statistics that the basic measures do work when people apply them and those who have adopted a common sense approach rather than demanding clearer rules have benefitted from their actions with lower infection rates.
Posted By: Alistair

Re: does anyone understand the covid rules? - 09/09/20 10:24 AM

Originally Posted by PhilRoyle
A simplification of the rules as I see it.
If there is a chip & pin machine there or money to be made/saved - anything goes
Otherwise you are limited to 6 people.

Or am I getting even more cynical? soapbox


No you have just gone to the underlying logic that is driving the public statement and cut out the middleman doh
Posted By: Peter J

Re: does anyone understand the covid rules? - 09/09/20 10:33 AM

Our interpretation common sense view is that anyone we do not know well is a potential risk, not just covid, but all other winter diseases.
Yes, covid is increasingly detected, increasing at a rate similar to that recorded in April, but amongst the 20 to 30 generation who are not going to do as they are told, because they do not believe they are at risk...and I think they may well be right.
Even so we avoid places where they tend to go.

The Government and the Unions are both, again, overreacting, causing fear and anxiety where it is not needed.Why do I say that?
Back in the 1960s winter flu caused over 100,000 excess deaths a year, above the normal annual death total of about 450,000, so a 22% increase. Since then the winter flu excess total has fallen, mostly due to vaccination, reduced smoking and falling air pollution.
Covid will end up with about 70,000 excess deaths for 2020, so little more than a bad winter flu in the 60's.

Normally since 2015 about 1200 people die every day in the UK. If in the winter of 2020/2021 10 or 20 or even 50 die each day with Covid, so what?

I have had enough of all this. The latest rules are pointless, they serve only to cause more fear and worry.
Posted By: Rob Thornton

Re: does anyone understand the covid rules? - 09/09/20 10:45 AM


Originally Posted by Peter J
The latest rules are pointless, they serve only to cause more fear and worry.


Peter,
Isn't this the point though, as anything milder may not jog people back to thinking about the sensible measures that are proved to work?
I'm with you on the thinking but unlike the seasonal flu wasn't the danger of this virus that, if uncontrolled, the excess death rate could spiral out of control?
ps. really like your avatar which would make a great COVID mask!
Posted By: +8Rich

Re: does anyone understand the covid rules? - 09/09/20 10:53 AM

I don't see a problem, we have chosen not to mix and will continue to do so until a proven vaccine arrives.

The Dominic Cummings precedent (approved by Doris) is available to anyone that fancies their chances of exposure, I encourage it as it will reduce the burden on pensions grin2
Posted By: Neptune

Re: does anyone understand the covid rules? - 09/09/20 10:56 AM

I don’t have a problem with it, this is a pretty good guide

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51506729

The numbers are increasing, the government have to do something because as we have seen large portions of the community can’t be trusted to do the right thing. It’ll be a step by step thing to prevent a total lockdown again and keeps schools and businesses open.

I assume those who object to increasing restrictions haven’t lost someone near to them or know a friend or relative who suffered
I have.

Having said that I think the devolved Parliaments should have a conjoined approach, the track and trace is a joke and testing availability is laughable.
I would humbly suggest that many on here are in the age group that whilst no longer the most likely to catch it are in the category that will suffer the worst.
Posted By: Hamwich

Re: does anyone understand the covid rules? - 09/09/20 11:12 AM

Originally Posted by +8Rich
I don't see a problem, we have chosen not to mix and will continue to do so until a proven vaccine arrives.


Yep, us too.
Posted By: Peter J

Re: does anyone understand the covid rules? - 09/09/20 11:19 AM

Originally Posted by Neptune
I
I would humbly suggest that many on here are in the age group that whilst no longer the most likely to catch it are in the category that will suffer the worst.


We are of an age group that is at risk of my things....including flu and heart lung issues, diabetes, various cancers and a multitude of ways of dying: Covid is just one more to add to the list.
A family friend died a couple of weeks ago, massive heart attack in his sleep. Age 65.
Another friend is 4 years into endometrial cancer, same age and the prognosis isn't good.
Our neighbour lost her father, age 72, last week.
My 65 year old sister has had one TIA, it looks as if she has just had another.
As we approach 70 death and suffering is all around us.

I don't worry about any of these, other than feel sad that anyone younger than me has died, and I will not worry about Covid.
Posted By: mutley

Re: does anyone understand the covid rules? - 09/09/20 11:37 AM

Originally Posted by +8Rich
I don't see a problem, we have chosen not to mix and will continue to do so until a proven vaccine arrives.

The Dominic Cummings precedent (approved by Doris) is available to anyone that fancies their chances of exposure, I encourage it as it will reduce the burden on pensions grin2


We are the same been to the pub once and sat in the beer garden, most of the food shopping on line and stick to the rules.
Posted By: TBM

Re: does anyone understand the covid rules? - 09/09/20 12:45 PM

IMy parents have been able to isolate easily. They are together, they are both retired and have a reasonably sized detached house with garden. They order all there food online, and can have it delivered easily during the day. They can plan trips out, as my Mum still drives and they have a National Trust membership. They can plan their day around 'quiet' times.

Those who are working all day, live in small houses/flats with no outdoor space, either singularly or multiple occupancy, may have more need to go out and socialise at busier times.
Posted By: Hamwich

Re: does anyone understand the covid rules? - 09/09/20 12:58 PM

Originally Posted by Peter J
Originally Posted by Neptune
I
I would humbly suggest that many on here are in the age group that whilst no longer the most likely to catch it are in the category that will suffer the worst.


We are of an age group that is at risk of my things....including flu and heart lung issues, diabetes, various cancers and a multitude of ways of dying: Covid is just one more to add to the list.
A family friend died a couple of weeks ago, massive heart attack in his sleep. Age 65.
Another friend is 4 years into endometrial cancer, same age and the prognosis isn't good.
Our neighbour lost her father, age 72, last week.
My 65 year old sister has had one TIA, it looks as if she has just had another.
As we approach 70 death and suffering is all around us.

I don't worry about any of these, other than feel sad that anyone younger than me has died, and I will not worry about Covid.


Fair enough - but unlike Coronaviruses diseases like diabetes, COPD, cancer, and strokes are not highly contagious.

I'm quite relaxed about the risks of death or incapacity caused by my own poor lifestyle choices, but less enthusiastic as to the prospect of going down due to those of others.

But then again, we're extremely happy keeping the rest of the world at bay, we have very little motivation to go out even when there's no risk so CV19 is a great excuse smile
Posted By: howard

Re: does anyone understand the covid rules? - 09/09/20 01:17 PM

Most of you are missing the point of my frustration. The new rules are legally enforceable and fineable. But no one seems to know what they are. Its a bit like having fines for speeding without having any posted speed limits.
Posted By: Neptune

Re: does anyone understand the covid rules? - 09/09/20 01:39 PM

What are the new rules on socialising?
The new limit of six people will apply to social gatherings from Monday.
It will apply both indoors and outdoors, and to all ages.
So, meeting up socially in private homes, venues like pubs and restaurants, and in outdoor spaces like parks will all be affected.
At present, the rules allow up to 30 people from two households, or six from multiple households, to meet outdoors.
Current guidance says you should only socialise indoors with members of up to two households.

Will any social events of more than six be allowed?
Some gatherings of more than six people will be allowed, for example:
If your household or support bubble is larger than six
Where gatherings are for work or education purposes
Weddings and funerals
Team sports organised in a way limiting the spread of coronavirus
A full list will be published before the law changes on Monday
Posted By: IcePack

Re: does anyone understand the covid rules? - 09/09/20 02:04 PM

Having had a conversation with security in local super market today. Apparently they are not allowed to ask people to wear masks or put them on properly. The reason given is you can not enquire about anyone's health condition. (Thus can not discern if they are exempt.) IMHO the country has to decide if just allow the virus to run or get real simplify and enforce. As is, their will be no controlling the virus.
Posted By: Neptune

Re: does anyone understand the covid rules? - 09/09/20 02:17 PM

Originally Posted by IcePack
Having had a conversation with security in local super market today. Apparently they are not allowed to ask people to wear masks or put them on properly. The reason given is you can not enquire about anyone's health condition. (Thus can not discern if they are exempt.) IMHO the country has to decide if just allow the virus to run or get real simplify and enforce. As is, their will be no controlling the virus.


I think I’m in the make guidelines into rules and enforce them, with discretion and relevant exemptions until a vaccine is developed, safe and the uptake of it is sufficient.
Then we get onto the whole anti-Vaxers issue.
Posted By: pandy

Re: does anyone understand the covid rules? - 09/09/20 02:49 PM

This Benelli review from the latest issue of BIKE magazine made me chuckle.

[Linked Image]
Posted By: tmg513

Re: does anyone understand the covid rules? - 09/09/20 03:46 PM

Posted By: Hamwich

Re: does anyone understand the covid rules? - 09/09/20 05:36 PM

Originally Posted by tmg513


rofl

Genius!
Posted By: Scrambledsignals

Re: does anyone understand the covid rules? - 09/09/20 06:36 PM

You don't need to understand them as they will change again tomorrow.
Posted By: tmg513

Re: does anyone understand the covid rules? - 13/09/20 03:23 PM



This raises some interesting issues.
Posted By: HJP

Re: does anyone understand the covid rules? - 13/09/20 04:36 PM

That is interesting , thanks for posting it .
Posted By: sospan

Re: does anyone understand the covid rules? - 13/09/20 05:07 PM

How are the rules applied outside England?
Another complication.
Posted By: Peter J

Re: does anyone understand the covid rules? - 13/09/20 06:39 PM

Excellent presentation. The presenter clearly articulates everything I've been trying to get over since the start.
So, the Political decision making has no scientific underpinning.

I'll continue to ignore most of the nonsense contained in Government "advice".
Posted By: ewn

Re: does anyone understand the covid rules? - 13/09/20 06:41 PM

Originally Posted by Hamwich
Originally Posted by tmg513


rofl

Genius!


That really is the best laugh we’ve had in ages, I loved those broadcasts back then, thanks for posting.
Posted By: howard

Re: does anyone understand the covid rules? - 13/09/20 08:25 PM

Originally Posted by Peter J
Excellent presentation. The presenter clearly articulates everything I've been trying to get over since the start.
So, the Political decision making has no scientific underpinning.

I'll continue to ignore most of the nonsense contained in Government "advice".


Not so.This is medicine not hard science like physics or engineering. Whatever your views are you can find an "expert" to agree with you. This Irish expert takes a different view to the experts in SAGE. My gut feel is that I prefer what SAGE says for one simple reason - the rest of the world is following the SAGE approach. Or to put it another way, there appear to be far more "experts" supporting the government approach than supporting what this Irish "expert" says. Doesnt mean that he is wrong but it does make it far more likely that he is wrong.

Man made global warming is a similar situation. There are numbers of experts who say it doesnt exist. There are way more experts who say it does. People chose to believe the expert who tells them what they want to hear, as you are doing right now. smile
Posted By: Gambalunga

Re: does anyone understand the covid rules? - 13/09/20 10:19 PM

The problem is that he makes a few statements that are not actually correct as far as I am concerned and backs them up with his own very loose interpretation of statistics. Like all good stories there is an element of truth in his.

Personally I have already booked my flu shots with our doctor (who is also a friend and was here for dinner last night) and since I am in the vulnerable age group I will continue to take reasonable precautions. The curve in Italy is slowly but surely swinging up again and we have not yet hit the cold and flu season. Schools reopen tomorrow and they have provided space between students but many of them will travel to and from school on crowded public transport. Basically most young people don't give a damn anyway because they feel it doesn't affect them.

We have far too many foreigners who have travelled to Italy for the summer holidays and many Italians are coming back from other countries and have been found to be infected. IMHO they should never have opened the borders.

It probably won't be so bad this winter because, as he pointed out, are large number of vulnerable people are already dead, but I don't believe it is over yet.
Posted By: howard

Re: does anyone understand the covid rules? - 14/09/20 07:05 AM

That the shape of the infection curve is much like that of any other flu / coronavirus is hardly surprising and proves nothing much. What is far more questionable is whether the curve would have been much higher had not every country taken precautions to some degree. And then of course, his implied approach is to regard the deaths as normal and take no action against the epidemic, but is this a moral approach when you believe that with some social changes such as lockdown you can reduce the death count? And how bad has the economic effect really been? We will never know in the UK because of Brexit and elsewhere there is a recession looming. But unlike people, economies can and do come back from the dead.

The real question here is whether the disease could have been better fought by seperating the population into two groups - the over 60s where the death rate is high and the under 60s where the rate is low. The former could have been seriously locked down, the latter could have gone to work as normal and let the virus infect them with little more than a bad cold. To some degree this has happened because the old and cranky like me have fled indoors in fear of the bug whilst youngesters have ignored the rules on the basis, as one put it, of "the old have had their lives and the virus wont kill me". But it could have happend in a better organised way.

The real issue for us golden oldies is how we live what is left of our lives. There is no reason to think that a vaccine will come riding over the horizon any time soon ( I believe the record shortest development time is 4 years ) so the bug isnt going to go away any time soon and will ramp up between now and next May. So if you cant socialise with other than tiny groups, either by common sense or government orders, and you cant sensibly go on holidays etc, just what do you do with your retirement?
Posted By: Hamwich

Re: does anyone understand the covid rules? - 14/09/20 07:57 AM

Originally Posted by howard

The real question here is whether the disease could have been better fought by seperating the population into two groups - the over 60s where the death rate is high and the under 60s where the rate is low. The former could have been seriously locked down, the latter could have gone to work as normal and let the virus infect them with little more than a bad cold. To some degree this has happened because the old and cranky like me have fled indoors in fear of the bug whilst youngesters have ignored the rules on the basis, as one put it, of "the old have had their lives and the virus wont kill me". But it could have happend in a better organised way.

The real issue for us golden oldies is how we live what is left of our lives. There is no reason to think that a vaccine will come riding over the horizon any time soon ( I believe the record shortest development time is 4 years ) so the bug isnt going to go away any time soon and will ramp up between now and next May. So if you cant socialise with other than tiny groups, either by common sense or government orders, and you cant sensibly go on holidays etc, just what do you do with your retirement?


With the second wave, at least we have a straightforward and simple strategy that we can follow with a pretty good chance of success:

1. Which other countries tackled the first wave in a way that resulted in significantly fewer excess deaths per 100k than the UK? (Answer - practically everyone)
2. Which of these countries are most like the UK in terms of economy, population density, and health service provision? (Answer - probably Germany)
3. Therefore hw should we tackle the 2nd wave? (Answer - copy Germany)

Will we do this? Of course not, we are cursed by British exceptionalism to be convinced that it wouldn't work here for all sorts of spurious and nonsensical reasons.

As to how do we cope with retirement if you can't meet with loads of people or go on holiday?

Answer: Change your lifestyle to focus on the things you can do rather than worrying about stuff you can't.

Learn new things, including how to socialise remotely and use technology effectively. I'm currently making music by emailing tracks back and forth with pals and sharing via SoundCloud.

Take on new hobbies that you can do from home: Cooking, Music, Engineering, Gardening, Astronomy, Reading, Writing, Philosophy, Art, Poetry, Photography, Cycling, Running, Walking, the list is endless. Join online groups to discuss your new-found interests and learn from others.

Or just join Reddit or Twitter and have endless arguments with idiots about stuff.
Posted By: DaveW

Re: does anyone understand the covid rules? - 14/09/20 07:58 AM

Our gas mans nephew was 48 and a brickie.

He spent the day on site. Came home, shower, and had his meal.

Soon after started with a nosebleed which went on for 90 minutes.

After some ringing round and buck passing, ambulance arrived. His temp was off the scale. They suited up and took him in.

Twelve weeks on a ventilator and he's dead.

There's no magic under 60. People are gambling with their lives.

Like Peter said, borders should be closed. NZ has the right approach.

Oh PS. The building site was closed. 9 tested positive. Two are still in hospital.
Posted By: Alistair

Re: does anyone understand the covid rules? - 14/09/20 08:15 AM

I agree, it has not gone away. I was shocked about the utter lack of airport testing (I thought the self quarantine approach was a total smoke screen and farce.) and opening of the borders.

I do believe in free choice but the impact on others is just too serious if you were to have an accident.

We have an NHS GP living next to us. Her mother lives in France. She goes to France with the kids during the summer holiday every year. This year as the travel ban was lifted she took them out, her husband joining them a week later. They had been out three days when the France quarantine was re-applied.
They came home the previous weekend. My understanding of the fast altering rules means two weeks quarantine?
They have been out shopping twice already (in the late evening).
They have had the parents around for one of the boys birthday.
They went out again as a family this weekend,

I made a joke about how they were bearing up with the quarantine and two young lads and she said they were not worried about it.

It will be interesting to see when she returns to work. I would only hope that they have been tested.
Posted By: tmg513

Re: does anyone understand the covid rules? - 14/09/20 08:26 AM

I'd be back at football tomorrow if it was allowed and with having weekends free as it isn't I'll be flying out for a few breaks away. Life's a risk anyway.
Posted By: DaveW

Re: does anyone understand the covid rules? - 14/09/20 08:53 AM

Originally Posted by Alistair
I agree, it has not gone away. I was shocked about the utter lack of airport testing (I thought the self quarantine approach was a total smoke screen and farce.) and opening of the borders.

I do believe in free choice but the impact on others is just too serious if you were to have an accident.

We have an NHS GP living next to us. Her mother lives in France. She goes to France with the kids during the summer holiday every year. This year as the travel ban was lifted she took them out, her husband joining them a week later. They had been out three days when the France quarantine was re-applied.
They came home the previous weekend. My understanding of the fast altering rules means two weeks quarantine?
They have been out shopping twice already (in the late evening).
They have had the parents around for one of the boys birthday.
They went out again as a family this weekend,

I made a joke about how they were bearing up with the quarantine and two young lads and she said they were not worried about it.

It will be interesting to see when she returns to work. I would only hope that they have been tested.


I agree Alistair. All we hear is "You've got to get your life back", and a seemingly reckless disregard for the obvious. We're quite happy at home. We can see our small family, and sure a holiday would be good, but until the masses change behaviour, this will continue world wide.

It's a permanent change, and the sooner people come to terms with it, the sooner it will be controlled better. 3,000plus a day now testing positive.
Posted By: TBM

Re: does anyone understand the covid rules? - 14/09/20 08:59 AM

I'm currently spending most of my time in a confined space with 30+ kids and one or two other adults. Every hour or so, that changes and I get a new set of 30 and different adults.

Most kids go home on a crowded bus, often standing room only, and back to their families. I have no idea what the situation is with regards to their COVID hygiene. As some seem unable to pop a shirt in the washing machine, I'm not hopeful.

Most of us have given up any pretence of COVID prevention and are just waiting to get it, and hoping for a good result.
Posted By: DaveW

Re: does anyone understand the covid rules? - 14/09/20 09:05 AM

I really do feel sorry TBM, that you face this every school day.

As you say, it can only be a matter of time before a school somewhere sees a spike.

Kids walk past our house twice a day to the nearby school, and their behaviour isn't distanced!
Posted By: Rob Thornton

Re: does anyone understand the covid rules? - 14/09/20 09:24 AM

The statistical presentation posted yesterday is interesting and would explain the like of Trump and Johnson's reactions to the pandemic. It may also explain why the words 'following the science' are often used by politicians. They are obviously referring to statistical science rather than medical.

I thought that the relationship between the lock-down measures and the spread of the disease was dismissed too lightly by simply predicting that the forward infection and death rate would now follow seasonal patterns regardless. So as with much statistical analysis it comes down to probability and this is where the politicians get scared and start reacting to perceived public pressures.

Not often mentioned is the death rate amongst the caring and medical staff. These statistics can't be regarded in the same way as excess deaths and I wonder what percentage of medical staff have died in previous epidemics as a result of catching the infection from the patients they are caring for. It would also be interesting to know what from of PPE they might have worn or used. This would help determine the perniciousness of this particular virus.
Posted By: Peter J

Re: does anyone understand the covid rules? - 14/09/20 10:33 AM

As a Fellow of the Royal Society of Chemistry with a special interest in Analytical Metrology, method validation and the use of certified reference materials and proficiency testing I'm possibly better qualified to hold an opinion on this matter than most. I was part of the ISO Committee the wrote the ISO/IEC 17034 Standard that defines how reference materials to be used in ISO 17025 accredited labs are to be produced and used.
I don't have all the answers, but I do know that there is a lot of bad science and poor interpretation of data in the media. Prof David Speigelhalter I respect enormously, and he has started to question how SAGE and politicians are using data.

This is his latest column in the Times:

Sir David Spiegelhalter: When a politician says they follow the science, that’s when I start screaming


https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/...reToken=ddafe06be410ea8419f94a03e00d0e2f

Remember, SAGE is not a proper scientific committee, it’s conclusions are not subject to rigorous peer review, so it is effectively politically window dressing.


Back to COVID 19 testing: almost all of the testing uses a technique called PCR, or polymerase Chain Reaction. It is complex, if you want to know more, read this: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polymerase_chain_reaction

PCR is a wonderful and powerful technique and when PCR arrived 25 or 30 years ago was widely expected to be "the" analytical tool that would bring clinical and food microbiology into the analytical world. It did not. Why?

The main reason is that PCR cannot differentiate between viable nucleic acid and fragments, the latter are of no diagnostic use whatsoever.
A test that cannot distinguish between live and dead bacteria and viruses is of little use.

Despite this in recent months we have a significant growth in PCR COVID testing: why? Because it is seen as better than nothing: I’m not really convinced.

Much of this testing is done on samples collected at home by the public, so the sampling efficiency must be questionable. Many of those sampled may have had a non-clinically significant dose of the virus, which the body's immune system destroyed, leaving viral fragments. Remember, COVID is a respiratory corona virus and our immune system has faced these viruses for eons. Some of us have very well developed ability to deal with a low level corona virus infection, so have shrugged off low dose COVID infections.

Worse, PCR is NOT properly quantitative in the way most other analytical tests used in medicine are, so it isn't able to tell us how much live viral RNA is present.
I do wonder if any of the COVID tests and the sampling procedures meet the requirements of ISO 17025, or the Clinical equivalent, ISO 15189.
The UK Accreditation service, UKAS, has accredited two labs for the antibody test, and has 30 in the que, but make no mention of PCR.
https://www.ukas.com/news/first-accreditations-for-covid-19-testing/

There is at least one COVID 19 PCR Proficiency Testing Scheme from LGC, which is an important step, but that test doesn’t appear to be able to determine if the analysis is of viable RNA or dead viral fragments.

I therefore question if any of the PCR COVID test protocols have been properly validated, I know Eurofins are one of the main testing contractors: they offer V2 Plasmid Controls, but it would be interesting to know if COVID PCR tests are in the scope of their ISO 17025 accreditation.

I take the view that the PCR COVID test is at best a screening test and thus making major decisions based on data from such a procedure is bad science. In my view only if someone tests PCR positive and has one or more COVID clinical symptoms and tests positive for antibodies should it be classified as a "case".

At the moment it seems that there has been no statistically significant increase in hospital admissions, and I do not expect there will be, the next 4 weeks will be crucial.
Based on all the evidence available to me I do not accept the 6 person group limit is justified in any scientific way.

All that being said, I accept that anyone over 65, with existing co-morbidities, as I have (Bronchiectasis), needs to take a bit more care, so we avoid public transport, meeting with groups of people we don’t know, only go to the supermarket once a week and so on. But it does not and will not stop me helping out at the Aircraft Collection once a week and it will not stop Caroline riding her horse and getting exercise out in the fields and woods around our village. If the NHS tells me that I should return to full lockdown I will take very selective notice of their advice.

In the end we all make choices and take risks and must accept the consequences. As said in a previous post above, we want to get the most out of the next 10 years and we are not going to let fear of a disease stop us.
Posted By: Hamwich

Re: does anyone understand the covid rules? - 14/09/20 11:07 AM

I've just seen on Twitter, first person anecdote but I've not seen corroboration, where someone was contacted by Serco Test and Trace and after having been told they had to travel 350 miles for a test they were told that due to lack of lab capacity in the UK, swabs were being sent to Italy for analysis.
Posted By: Peter J

Re: does anyone understand the covid rules? - 14/09/20 11:10 AM

Originally Posted by Hamwich
I've just seen on Twitter, first person anecdote but I've not seen corroboration, where someone was contacted by Serco Test and Trace and after having been told they had to travel 350 miles for a test they were told that due to lack of lab capacity in the UK, swabs were being sent to Italy for analysis.


I don't doubt it. EUROFINS, one of the contractors are reported in the Telegraph today to be sending samples to their lab in Germany.
Another report in the same paper has said that there were, yesterday, no available tests anywhere in the UK.
Posted By: SFO

Re: does anyone understand the covid rules? - 14/09/20 11:19 AM

Originally Posted by Peter J

In the end we all make choices and take risks and must accept the consequences. As said in a previous post above, we want to get the most out of the next 10 years and we are not going to let fear of a disease stop us.


Spot on. But the Government and many members of the public insist that they know better.
Posted By: PeterG

Re: does anyone understand the covid rules? - 14/09/20 12:11 PM



[Linked Image]
Posted By: Hamwich

Re: does anyone understand the covid rules? - 14/09/20 12:15 PM

Originally Posted by SFO
Originally Posted by Peter J

In the end we all make choices and take risks and must accept the consequences. As said in a previous post above, we want to get the most out of the next 10 years and we are not going to let fear of a disease stop us.


Spot on. But the Government and many members of the public insist that they know better.


A superficially appealing argument, but it misses one crucial point - the impact of one person's risky choices on others. If a person decides they don't wish to be constrained by restrictions like having to wear a mask when out and about, and decides they don't mind if they catch C19 as a consequence, they are also making the decision that they also don't care if they pass that infection onto anyone of whom they come within a couple of meters - and that's the problem, and that's why we have restrictions. It's all about social responsibility.
Posted By: Heinz

Re: does anyone understand the covid rules? - 14/09/20 12:28 PM

Yesterday I saw an interview on TV with a virologist from Essen, Prof. Dr. Ulf Dittmer.
In short, it was a little bit hopeful. He commented on some points:
Measured by the positive tests, mortality is significantly declining, at least in Germany. He mentions three assumptions, more tests in total, more younger patients, but also a third reason. At least in local clusters, it can be assumed that the virus is already diminishing in its dangerousness.

The professor said that in new generations, the virus will focus more on the nose, throat and pharynx, and thus become less dangerous.
Another point, he said he was working with an institute at a clinic in Wuhan. The reason is to do studies with people whose disease course is the oldest. It has been shown that although the antibodies are decreasing significantly, they are not disappearing but are being maintained at a significant level, which is a prerequisite for a vaccine to be effective. It is also probable that after a disease, the chances of only getting a weak course of the disease are higher if you are infected again.

But he also said that what he reported gives hope for in about two years' time! Not in weeks or months. And...that the prayed protection measure is indeed the conscientious wearing of masks because they reduce the viral load when breathing out. Likewise, we only have a chance of a mild course if we continue to be very careful with social contacts.

In summary, there is hope for improvement, but not overnight and not until until a vaccine is available in the meantime. Unfortunately, even a vaccine must be imagined to be statistically effective, and not necessarily as personally effective as a measles vaccine is. Wr do not know exactly about this point now but we should not become too euphoric.
In Germany it is also propagated that the elderly (i.e. me) should be vaccinated against flu, pneumocoge and whooping cough in autumn. This avoids additional stress if one should get Covid19.

One more word about a watched behaviour. When we returned from our holiday in Austria two weeks ago, we had ourselves tested against Corona in Bavaria free of charge. The fortunately negative result we had two days later on our mobile phone. There weren't very many drivers who had themselves tested at the special car park at the motorway...even if they were coming back from high risk areas like Kosovo or Croatia.
Posted By: Bonesie

Re: does anyone understand the covid rules? - 14/09/20 12:50 PM

Well. I for one think the entire UK should be carpet bombed and we can start a fresh. Lets get rid of this lurgy once and for all.

Joking aside, its a shambles isnt it. Pubs open where social distancing might work at opening time but as soon as people start getting drunk it will all go wrong !! cheers Schools open ( they have the dirties of all human life) picking noses, bums and such and flicking it around.

Busses open, work places open, Oh and protesting. If you're a BLM, extinction rebellion or Antifa, rules dont apply to you guys so crack on, London is open for large gathering so feel free to spread it around

Family gathering. 10K fine.

Oh, masks. another joke. Ive got a big bush beard. what are the chances of a mask containing a sneeze loaded with CV19 ? Zero, its going everywhere. I dont do dainty sneezing rofl

Utter s%$t show. We are living in clown world.
Posted By: TBM

Re: does anyone understand the covid rules? - 14/09/20 01:42 PM

Originally Posted by Bonesie
Oh and protesting. If you're a BLM, extinction rebellion or Antifa, rules dont apply to you guys so crack on, London is open for large gathering so feel free to spread it around


Don't forget the 'so-called' statue defenders, the anti-immigration rally, and the 'Covid is all made up/David Icke' rally. They've all taken place as well
Posted By: Peter J

Re: does anyone understand the covid rules? - 14/09/20 01:44 PM

Originally Posted by Hamwich
Originally Posted by SFO
Originally Posted by Peter J

In the end we all make choices and take risks and must accept the consequences. As said in a previous post above, we want to get the most out of the next 10 years and we are not going to let fear of a disease stop us.


Spot on. But the Government and many members of the public insist that they know better.


A superficially appealing argument, but it misses one crucial point - the impact of one person's risky choices on others. If a person decides they don't wish to be constrained by restrictions like having to wear a mask when out and about, and decides they don't mind if they catch C19 as a consequence, they are also making the decision that they also don't care if they pass that infection onto anyone of whom they come within a couple of meters - and that's the problem, and that's why we have restrictions. It's all about social responsibility.




Tim, I understand your argument and it would hold water if the masks were effective and worn properly. But 95% are not.
We have some Chinese made masks that claim to meet this and that EU standard, but anyone can print a label. This point was demonstrated when I sneezed wearing it and it did nothing to stop the air.
Proper PPE masks are expensive and need to be correctly fitted. Even so I where one when in shops because if it does little good it certainly does no harm.

Second point: there is a time/distance issue. To catch COVID from an infected person there needs to be prolonged exposure at close range. 20 to 30 minutes at less than 1m, assuming you are face to face: like standing in a bar as the "youff" do.
Outside and standing at right angles, with 2m spacing, the chances of getting enough virus to be infected is minimal.
I have no intention of going near anyone who is not part of our bubble,

Another point: someone asked about the infection of medics. That happened because they were exposed 8 to 12 hours a day, day in, day out. So they were subject to a massive viral challenge. Add to that the sad fact that many NHS staff have significant comorbidities, obesity, heart problems and type 2 diabetes. Many smoke and get very little exercise outside.
Posted By: Bonesie

Re: does anyone understand the covid rules? - 14/09/20 02:59 PM

Originally Posted by TBM
Originally Posted by Bonesie
Oh and protesting. If you're a BLM, extinction rebellion or Antifa, rules dont apply to you guys so crack on, London is open for large gathering so feel free to spread it around


Don't forget the 'so-called' statue defenders, the anti-immigration rally, and the 'Covid is all made up/David Icke' rally. They've all taken place as well



Fair point. Duly noted.
Posted By: SFO

Re: does anyone understand the covid rules? - 14/09/20 04:29 PM

Originally Posted by Peter J


Second point: there is a time/distance issue. To catch COVID from an infected person there needs to be prolonged exposure at close range. 20 to 30 minutes at less than 1m, assuming you are face to face: like standing in a bar as the "youff" do.
Outside and standing at right angles, with 2m spacing, the chances of getting enough virus to be infected is minimal.



So this means masks are pretty pointless .. virtue signalling, desire to comply and fit in and/or just scared stupid by the Government and the many “experts” and professors of this, that and the other
Posted By: Peter J

Re: does anyone understand the covid rules? - 14/09/20 04:34 PM

Yup. Virtue Signaling.
Posted By: CooperMan

Re: does anyone understand the covid rules? - 14/09/20 04:35 PM

Originally Posted by SFO
Originally Posted by Peter J


Second point: there is a time/distance issue. To catch COVID from an infected person there needs to be prolonged exposure at close range. 20 to 30 minutes at less than 1m, assuming you are face to face: like standing in a bar as the "youff" do.
Outside and standing at right angles, with 2m spacing, the chances of getting enough virus to be infected is minimal.



So this means masks are pretty pointless .. virtue signalling, desire to comply and fit in and/or just scared stupid by the Government and the many “experts” and professors of this, that and the other


Yep, our H&S gaffa used to do face fit testing with some reagent dye, the edge leakage even with PP3 spec is shocking
Posted By: Peter J

Re: does anyone understand the covid rules? - 14/09/20 05:12 PM

Probably pays to understand them in Australia, where enforcement seems somewhat over the top.
It is reported that they’ve arrested people for just saying on chat rooms “let’s all gather on the beach”.
Posted By: Gambalunga

Re: does anyone understand the covid rules? - 14/09/20 07:14 PM

Originally Posted by Heinz
In Germany it is also propagated that the elderly (i.e. me) should be vaccinated against flu, pneumocoge and whooping cough in autumn. This avoids additional stress if one should get Covid19.

In Italy too!
Posted By: SFO

Re: does anyone understand the covid rules? - 14/09/20 07:21 PM

Originally Posted by Peter J
Probably pays to understand them in Australia, where enforcement seems somewhat over the top.
It is reported that they’ve arrested people for just saying on chat rooms “let’s all gather on the beach”.



I have friends in Melbourne. Total police state. Police are super diligent. Would never been accepted here.
Posted By: Gambalunga

Re: does anyone understand the covid rules? - 14/09/20 07:36 PM

Something that I simply do not understand. Why is it that people don't understand that the surgical masks that most people wear, scarves, bandanas etc. are not for personal protection but to protect others if you unknowingly are infected. Surgical masks were never designed to protect the wearer.

This basic principle seems to be beyond the comprehension of the majority of the population. If you sneeze into a surgical mask it is true that some droplets may excape but most are contained.

If I had to travel on public transport I would wear a PP3 but thankfully I don't have to. Unfortunately swmbo jnr does, but we are taking steps to minimise this,. (she works in a pre-school)
Posted By: Alistair

Re: does anyone understand the covid rules? - 14/09/20 07:47 PM

We had a thinking session today. What could you do to avoid spreading this damn thing and why is it called a bubble?

What could Doris Trump do that would be more likely to induce ridicule now? So we worked it out as a mental exercise.

He could suggest that the bubble should be made real and when in public everyone should go around in a zorb.

[Linked Image]
Posted By: Gordon D

Re: does anyone understand the covid rules? - 14/09/20 07:49 PM

Mmmmmm. Wouldn't fit in the Morgan though
Posted By: Rob Thornton

Re: does anyone understand the covid rules? - 15/09/20 06:21 AM

Think the comments re 'virtue signalling' are a bit unfair. Most people are following what they consider to be sensible guidance in the circumstances. I would have thought that the term equally applies to those who chose not to wear them given the current 'instructions'.
I must admit that I find the mask an absolute pain, as I am sure all those who wear glasses do, and would rather not bother but having sad that I will follow what is expected as surely it can do no harm and may even do some good even if the statistics are a bit uncertain.
Posted By: Peter J

Re: does anyone understand the covid rules? - 15/09/20 10:19 AM

Originally Posted by Gambalunga
Something that I simply do not understand. Why is it that people don't understand that the surgical masks that most people wear, scarves, bandanas etc. are not for personal protection but to protect others if you unknowingly are infected. Surgical masks were never designed to protect the wearer.


Because any face mask, unless it is a properly fitted N95 surgical mask does not stop particles from you, especially those with vents to make breathing out easier.
If there is ANY gap between mask and face then there is air leakage, so you must, if male, be clean shaven.
Bandanas and fabric home made masks are, unless they have an ultra filter as used in a Dyson built in, are equally pointless.

Bottom line: unless the mask leaves lines on you face it isn't doing any more than deflecting/slowing the air you exhale. Which is why I consider most to be little more than virtue singling, and as for those who wear it with the upper edge below their nose.....

From the US FDA..

An N95 respirator is a respiratory protective device designed to achieve a very close facial fit and very efficient filtration of airborne particles. Note that the edges of the respirator are designed to form a seal around the nose and mouth. Surgical N95 Respirators are commonly used in healthcare settings and are a subset of N95 Filtering Facepiece Respirators (FFRs), often referred to as N95s.

The similarities among surgical masks and surgical N95s are:

They are tested for fluid resistance, filtration efficiency (particulate filtration efficiency and bacterial filtration efficiency), flammability and biocompatibility.
They should not be shared or reused.
Posted By: TBM

Re: does anyone understand the covid rules? - 15/09/20 10:28 AM

Interestingly, we're getting a number of students going down with the 'common cold'. It always happens at the start of every new school year as students are mixing and mingling with each other after a period of absence. Nothing to worry about - runny nose, few sniffles etc.

What is more concerning is that it's happening under the current conditions of social distancing/face marks/ hand sanitising/ hygiene awarenes/ school zones etc

Does make me wonder if there's any point in it all......
Posted By: Peter J

Re: does anyone understand the covid rules? - 15/09/20 10:41 AM

Quite....
Posted By: BobtheTrain

Re: does anyone understand the covid rules? - 15/09/20 10:58 AM

Originally Posted by Alistair
What could Doris Trump do that would be more likely to induce ridicule now? So we worked it out as a mental exercise.


Originally Posted by Peter J
so you must, if male, be clean shaven.

They could ban beards. It has been done before!
Mind you. Brian Blessed and David Bellamy would be up in arms.
Posted By: pandy

Re: does anyone understand the covid rules? - 15/09/20 11:07 AM

Originally Posted by BobtheTrain
Originally Posted by Alistair
What could Doris Trump do that would be more likely to induce ridicule now? So we worked it out as a mental exercise.


Originally Posted by Peter J
so you must, if male, be clean shaven.

They could ban beards. It has been done before!


State sponsored pognophobia....

Mind you, You could be onto something. The last president of the USA to sport face-fungus was Howard Taft, who left office in 1913. Most presidents prior to that had facial hair.

Bob for President !!!!
Posted By: BobtheTrain

Re: does anyone understand the covid rules? - 15/09/20 11:08 AM

Originally Posted by pandy
Bob for President !!!!

Could I do worse?
Posted By: pandy

Re: does anyone understand the covid rules? - 15/09/20 11:16 AM

No.
Posted By: BobtheTrain

Re: does anyone understand the covid rules? - 15/09/20 11:35 AM

Thank you for all your confidence. Now all you need to do is crowd fund several million dollars for my campaign.
Posted By: Gambalunga

Re: does anyone understand the covid rules? - 15/09/20 12:26 PM

Peter. Of course some particles will get past your bandana when you sneeze but it will limit the number of droplets that pass and hopefully reduce the chances of you infecting someone. I repeat that the simple masks are not, and never have been considered personal protection but are used to limit (if properly worn) the possibility of passing bacteria etc to others.

As you quite rightly point out personal protection requires a properly fitted N95 mask or better. Those with valves for exhalation (mainly used in industrial environments) will give even less protection for others than a simple mask or bandana. Those without valves will no doubt give better protection for others than a simple surgical mask.

At the end of the day you can't ask everyone to spend the money to buy and keep changing the expensive N95 masks, there would not be enough available anyway. In Italy a law was introduced to stop profiteering on surgical masks and they are now readily available at 50 cents each.

It is all about risk reduction, not absolute prevention.

There are plenty of well informed studies on the subject. You might like to read Still Confused About Masks? Here’s the Science Behind How Face Masks Prevent Coronavirus

Posted By: pandy

Re: does anyone understand the covid rules? - 15/09/20 12:28 PM

That’s great Peter, but what do you think of the prospects of President Bob ?
Posted By: Image

Re: does anyone understand the covid rules? - 15/09/20 12:37 PM

Personally I think Bob has a Lincoln-esque look .... a stovepipe hat and a black suit and I reckon he could pick up a wedge of the rural vote .... might be worth cutting back on his theatre attendance though! smile

K
Posted By: Hamwich

Re: does anyone understand the covid rules? - 15/09/20 01:58 PM

I see that apparently in Indonesia when people are caught not wearing masks in situations where it is required, the punishment is that they are made to dig the graves of people who have died from C19.
Posted By: HJP

Re: does anyone understand the covid rules? - 15/09/20 02:49 PM

Seeing as less than 9000 people have died in Indonesia out of a population of 270,000,000 it doesn't seem they'll have much digging to do ...
Posted By: Hamwich

Re: does anyone understand the covid rules? - 15/09/20 03:15 PM

Originally Posted by HJP
Seeing as less than 9000 people have died in Indonesia out of a population of 270,000,000 it doesn't seem they'll have much digging to do ...


But apparently on East Java they've only got 3 gravediggers available.

https://nypost.com/2020/09/14/anti-maskers-forced-to-dig-graves-for-covid-19-victims-in-indonesia/
Posted By: sospan

Re: does anyone understand the covid rules? - 15/09/20 04:50 PM

A mask is part of a system for limiting spread. It is not perfect and has limitations but does add extra limitations when used in conjunction with social distancing and group congregating.
So, which social distance is better? 2m, 1m ?
Limiting contacts outside a bubble.
No mask, no distancing, no limiting contacts =risk level 1, a base level with highest risk.
Adding each of the 3 factors changes the risk level to a lower one.
They are cumulative so all 3 give a lower risk level. Removing any increases the risk level.
It all boils down to risk management in the end. We will not get a risk free scenario? In trying to protect a whole population it is wrong to assume total protection is feasible as the requirements for PPE, isolation, ignoring common sense instructions will never be achieved.
We can argue about the mask types ad infinitum but in practice it is the readily available ones that will form the risk level factor.
We are in for a long haul unfortunately.
As for the stats...bloody hell, what a load of poor info.
Negligible testing in the early days and Covid being wrongly used as a death cause.
Higher testing frequency now so NUMBERS of positives would be higher anyway and wrongly dangerous to compare to earlier results. We are not comparing like with like. Until we gat a stable testing regime then the variations in it compromises comparisons, an apples versus pears comparison.
Posted By: Hamwich

Re: does anyone understand the covid rules? - 15/09/20 05:01 PM

Originally Posted by sospan
A mask is part of a system for limiting spread. It is not perfect and has limitations but does add extra limitations when used in conjunction with social distancing and group congregating.
So, which social distance is better? 2m, 1m ?
Limiting contacts outside a bubble.
No mask, no distancing, no limiting contacts =risk level 1, a base level with highest risk.
Adding each of the 3 factors changes the risk level to a lower one.
They are cumulative so all 3 give a lower risk level. Removing any increases the risk level.
It all boils down to risk management in the end. We will not get a risk free scenario? In trying to protect a whole population it is wrong to assume total protection is feasible as the requirements for PPE, isolation, ignoring common sense instructions will never be achieved.
We can argue about the mask types ad infinitum but in practice it is the readily available ones that will form the risk level factor.
We are in for a long haul unfortunately.
As for the stats...bloody hell, what a load of poor info.
Negligible testing in the early days and Covid being wrongly used as a death cause.
Higher testing frequency now so NUMBERS of positives would be higher anyway and wrongly dangerous to compare to earlier results. We are not comparing like with like. Until we gat a stable testing regime then the variations in it compromises comparisons, an apples versus pears comparison.



+1 Good post.
Posted By: Heinz

Re: does anyone understand the covid rules? - 15/09/20 05:18 PM

A prime example of how you can really do everything wrong. Sturgis Biker Festival in South Dakota, it is estimated that about 240.000 of 450.000 people were infected. Masks...? What is this?

https://www.washingtonpost.com/heal...ked-266000-coronavirus-cases-study-says/
Posted By: TBM

Re: does anyone understand the covid rules? - 15/09/20 05:30 PM

Look on the bright side - 240,000 less Trump voters smile
Posted By: Peter J

Re: does anyone understand the covid rules? - 15/09/20 05:30 PM

A positive COVID test does not mean you are infected or are infectious.

All it means is that viral RNA from the COVID 19 virus has been detected in your body.

The testing is chaotic, the data derived from the pcr testing is confused at best and misleading at worst.
As SOSPAN has said, the key to knowing what is really happening is to get a robust and credible testing system in place.

But if, in 4 to 6 weeks, COVID hospital admissions have not increased and death rates are within the normal expected range at this time of year, what is to be done?
Spend more and more, keep restrictions in place, or say enough is enough, it is all over, nothing to worry about, go back to normal?
Governments will not accept that, because it makes them look stupid. So they will continue with their confused position.

I used to be a long term member of a Political Party, it matters not which.
Today I resigned, I have no confidence in any of them.
Posted By: Heinz

Re: does anyone understand the covid rules? - 15/09/20 06:07 PM

Peter, given the current state of knowledge, how do you differentiate between whether a positively tested person is contagious or not? It is better as a precautionary measure, all those who test positive are first put in quarantine. One knows someone is positive but one does not know the viral load. Furthermore, the example from South Dakota shows that one cannot rely on C19 positives not being contagious. The large numbers of infected people speak a different language than the scientific qualitative approach. Of course, you can now reply that the 240,000 people who tested positive will not infect others...

I also believe that governments will change their measures if the leading virologists give a slight all-clear. And as I said, perhaps it now indicates that the virus will lose its lethality. So if we are a bit patient, it could be better in spring.
Posted By: SFO

Re: does anyone understand the covid rules? - 15/09/20 09:52 PM

Originally Posted by Peter J
A positive COVID test does not mean you are infected or are infectious.



but the politicians and “experts” treat these results like the beginnings of the apocalypse
Posted By: Rob Thornton

Re: does anyone understand the covid rules? - 16/09/20 07:15 AM

As the pandemic plays itself out over the coming months - or maybe years, heaven forbid - the true qualities of our leader's capabilities will be exposed further. I can imagine that many countries will then look in envy to those countries where decisive early leadership was evident such as Sweden or NZ even if their approaches to the problem were diametrically opposed. The key will obviously be the management of the country and all its other accumulated health and economic predicaments in the face of the pandemic rather than the pandemic itself.
If on ultimate reflection, Sweden got it right all along, what will we all do next to get out of the biggest hole we ever dug, especially bearing in mind that their approach was akin to that initially adopted by the two leaders most criticised on this forum!
As Peter J has said, perhaps, the next quandary will emerge in 4 - 6 weeks if death rates are within seasonal expectations. Having said that, the politicians will, of course, put this down to the precautionary 'lock-down' measures they have just imposed and so the confusion continues!
Posted By: Gambalunga

Re: does anyone understand the covid rules? - 16/09/20 07:33 AM

Originally Posted by Heinz
A prime example of how you can really do everything wrong. Sturgis Biker Festival in South Dakota, it is estimated that about 240.000 of 450.000 people were infected. Masks...? What is this?

https://www.washingtonpost.com/heal...ked-266000-coronavirus-cases-study-says/

This came up after the video in the Sturgis article

Amid pandemic fatigue, an Arkansas hospital warns the crisis isn’t over. 


At Baptist Health hospital in Fort Smith, the intensive care unit for covid-19 patients is full, and a long-time nurse has died from the disease. https://wapo.st/2FrAp1v
Posted By: Gambalunga

Re: does anyone understand the covid rules? - 16/09/20 11:41 AM

Posted By: BobtheTrain

Re: does anyone understand the covid rules? - 17/09/20 09:04 AM

Fascinating.
Posted By: Hamwich

Re: does anyone understand the covid rules? - 17/09/20 11:06 AM

Looks like we're in for another lockdown. CMO Chris Witty is recommending that since we're up to something like 38,000 new cases a day we have one starting soon and lasting just 2 weeks.

A government minister has dismissed suggestions, so we can look forward to them fannying about for another week or so until it becomes really obvious we need one, by which time it'll be too late to nip it in the bud so it'll have to last longer than 2 weeks.

I hope you all have plenty of toilet paper left over from last time smile
Posted By: DaveW

Re: does anyone understand the covid rules? - 17/09/20 11:29 AM

Selfish disregard for basic precautions will prolong this crisis.

It brings out the best and worst in people.
Posted By: BobtheTrain

Re: does anyone understand the covid rules? - 17/09/20 11:38 AM

+1
Posted By: howard

Re: does anyone understand the covid rules? - 17/09/20 11:56 AM

We are doing a larger number of tests than any other country size for size but the great stoic brush people are in full panic mode. For example, tow kids at daughters kids infant school sent home with a temperature which the doc diagnosed as tonsylitis. Nevertheless the head insists that not only these two have c.f. tests but also all the others in their bubble. Apparently worried about liability!

Chatting around this approach seems to be common. How can the government ever keep up with the demand for tests
Posted By: TBM

Re: does anyone understand the covid rules? - 17/09/20 12:09 PM

Originally Posted by howard
We are doing a larger number of tests than any other country size for size but the great stoic brush people are in full panic mode. For example, tow kids at daughters kids infant school sent home with a temperature which the doc diagnosed as tonsylitis. Nevertheless the head insists that not only these two have c.f. tests but also all the others in their bubble. Apparently worried about liability!

Chatting around this approach seems to be common. How can the government ever keep up with the demand for tests


Trouble is there is no solid guidance for schools from that feckless cretin Boris and his fawning cronies.

We have a proper registered Nurse employed in school - we're telling parents - symptoms go, straight back in. No tests needed.
Posted By: Rovert

Re: does anyone understand the covid rules? - 17/09/20 01:09 PM

Originally Posted by howard
We are doing a larger number of tests than any other country size for size


Well. Actually the 18th highest
Posted By: Gambalunga

Re: does anyone understand the covid rules? - 17/09/20 05:17 PM

We have just been to Bellagio and wore our masks virtually all the time. The town was just a full of tourists as normal for this time of year and most non Italians not wearing masks. The risks are enormous. Those that travel on planes or ferries, constantly eat in restaurants etc., and not taking precautions, are almost bound to return home with the virus and risk spreading it on their travels.
Posted By: Alistair

Re: does anyone understand the covid rules? - 18/09/20 09:07 AM

Sadly they probably also bought it with them.
Posted By: Peter J

Re: does anyone understand the covid rules? - 18/09/20 05:35 PM

Tim,
indeed, we have little motivation to go outside our little bubble.......of family and friends.

We will not be using public transport of any sort in the foreseeable future, nor do we plan to stay away from home, go to anywhere where there are more than a few people....
Posted By: Gambalunga

Re: does anyone understand the covid rules? - 18/09/20 05:36 PM

We just had the Minister for Health on the TV who announced that the increase in hospitalisation is predominantly caused by younger people who have brought the virus into the household where they live with parents and grandparents. Exactly what one could expect when they have been OS on holidays, in discotheques, etc all without a care in the world and no protection. After all it won't kill me, will it. And who gives a damn about the others.
Posted By: Peter J

Re: does anyone understand the covid rules? - 18/09/20 06:10 PM

We keep out children at arms length!
No grandchildren.
Daughter is in Basel, son is local, but as anti-social as we are!
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