Talk Morgan Forums Community The Malvern Arms Interesting to get someone else's prospective

Irrespective of your own views on this issue, its interesting to see how others outside the UK look objectively at the big picture, especially compared to some of the UK press campaigns.


''A GERMAN bank has hailed Brexit Britain's success, arguing criticism of the UK's withdrawal from the EU has been well overstated.

More than five years after Britons voted for Brexit, critics continue to claim Britain is in a much worse position – economically, politically and socially – than it would be had it chosen to remain in the EU. But a growing number of officials in countries within the bloc are publicly declaring Brexit has done Britain far more good than harm.

An article published in the corporate blog of German bank IKB Deutsche Industriebank on Wednesday highlighted that, despite predictions of post-Brexit chaos, the British economy has not collapsed, investments have proven to be robust and neither corporate nor consumer confidence have noticeably deteriorated.
Dr Klaus Bauknecht, chief economist at IKB, wrote that most of Britain’s current economic woes can be pinned not on Brexit but on the Government’s response to Covid.
Given this, he adds that many of the same problems – for example, a reduction in potential growth – can also be seen in Germany.
Dr Bauknecht wrote that, for the most part, Brexit did not worsen the financial struggles met by the British Government during the Covid pandemic.
He said: “Brexit did not make the [NHS staff shortage] situation worse, as the number of doctors in Great Britain did not decrease between 2016 and 2020."
Dr Bauknecht also noted: "The slump in GDP a year and a half ago initially seemed to confirm the pessimists.
"But the British economy is now in relatively good shape again - especially compared to the German economy.
"That is why the Bank of England is already considering the first rate hikes, especially since estimates of potential growth support the thesis that the negative consequences of Brexit could remain manageable

While some pundits paint a picture of Brexit Britain faring far worse in its efforts against Covid than its European – particularly its EU – counterparts, Dr Bauknecht said “it has now followed a similar course”.
On delivery problems, he added: “The concern that the corona effects, in combination with Brexit, will lead to significantly stronger distortions on the supply side and thus more serious delivery bottlenecks, is currently not reflected in either the actual or expected inflation trend.”
His overall view is that criticism of Britain's withdrawal from the EU is “much ado about nothing”.
IKB expects that Britain will see a GDP growth of 7.5 percent in 2021 and 5.2 percent in 2022.''

Ostriches and sand come to mind!!!

It is great that the UK has left Europe?
We start to feel the advantages.
Is that what people want to hear?

Poland next please - and Orban too.
... I see the need for a soap box

I imagine, given the short time frame, that Dr Bauknecht makes the point rather precariously that the UK economy has not yet gone to hell in a hand cart according to the facts. I say it is a bit early to extrapolate this and I don't expect to see the proven economic effects of Brexit in my lifetime, for good or bad. In the interim reports like this might make us feel a bit better and may even soften the sound of crowing from Mr Macron.

Currently Covid masks everything and offers Boris and his incompetents the excuses they need to trip and stumble their way through. The cost of energy will be the next excuse to be worn thin and who knows what after that. Where are the excellent minds, the strategic visionaries and statesmen and stateswomen that we are supposed to produce at £9000 a year?

Johnson and his cronies are a disgrace to democracy, but over the channel we see a basket case of micro egos, some elected, some not, all strutting their stuff, as they see it.

The whole political class everywhere have lost respect for democracy. How can you have a full time job, and then another job? The logic is that being an MP is a part time job, so they should be paid pro rata.

The MP for Barnsley Central is also Mayor for South Yorkshire. How can that possibly be OK?

The EU remains weak on defence and weak on dealing with migrancy. This will continue to unravel if nothing changes.

The whole political class everywhere have lost respect for democracy.

Dave, I don't think that this is true for a moment and while there is evidence to support what you claim there are also many politicians who are doing their very best to counter the real danger that exists. Normally I wouldn't commit to a comment on politics on Talk Morgan but I do feel that you are wrong about this, with respect.

Despite everything that has happened, in particular the poorly thought through Northern Ireland protocol, whilst it offers NI a unique position of being both in and out of the EU which may help long overdue growth and prosperity in the region and over time create greater security and hopefully long term peace. As NI ties and trading patterns move closer to the Ireland and the EU may potentially be one very positive outcome for the Island of Ireland, Probably leading to unification which was forecast to happen in the next 20 to 30 years anyway, as the Catholic population will overtake the Protestant population of NI and lead to a unification majority vote under the GFA, Hopefully, they can work through the protocol issues going forward, without the grandstanding currently demonstrated in negotiations.

The EEC was a great success as an economic block, for me it lost its way as it moved to a federal Europe . We had our difficulties whilst within the EU remember the French British lamb ban, the BSE ban, the issues over egg salmonella, the blockading of Calais and other French ports by French lorry drivers and farmers to mention just a few. Everything wasn't rosy in the garden without question.

I never anticipated the economic benefits to work themselves out in the next 10 to 20 years, but without question the Pacific Rim will be the economic giant going forward, with Singapore and HK the real future challenges to the London financial centre. UK membership application of the Pacific trading block especially for services will be key to UK growth whilst maintaining a trading relationship with the EU. The EU has been in world GDP% terms been in decline for decades, when it had all the capital, intellectual, economic and industrial infrastructure and an educated work force advantages when compared with the likes of many far east countries that have prospered.

In a strange way I was pleased to read that the UK has sent British Army Engineers to support Poland in defence of the EU borders in response the the migration and Russian military growth in the area. Obviously the human tragedy on the Belarus border is very telling of the future migration we can expect. It shows we still have a strong commitment to the defence of Europe. We however do need to get a greater balance back in our relationship with our European neighbours, but I cant see how that is possible whilst Macron is determined that the UK must pay for leaving the EU. Whilst I disagree with Poland's political situation, I'm lost for words as to France's refusal to sanction EU funds to build a border wall in Poland, whose border position is being used to try and destabilise the EU.

I've no time for the current political antics of all political parties, we need a strong moral, ethical government held to account by a strong opposition.

5.2% Growth in GDP in 2022 seems a bit optimistic to me. I have not come across a business over recent months that is not complaining about the ability to recruit. I suspect that lack of skilled labour will be the greatest constraint on future growth.

My view on the lack of available labour is that Covid caused what some commentators are calling the great resignation, where a substantial number of over 50's have just said to themselves, enough is enough and then Brexit caused a large number of Europeans to return home.

Over all I think UK is better off as I consider the EU as a failed experiment. Happy with common market but not United States of Europe. Also do not like being run by Un elected people. At least UK gets democracy every 5 years.

Yes I agree, this is exactly why Pandy and Gambalunga left these parts just sick to death of the subject, aren't we all ... it's yet more speculation albeit with a positive spin...