Just another observation for the collective good.
My 2012 car has developed a "drip" from the bell housing "hole" as have a number of vehicles. Not bothered really as it is literally a drop or two after a run.
Well obviously some incontinence has come about, as last weekend went to have a short winter drive after car being idle for 3 weeks and there was a small puddle ! not just a drip. Luckily contained by the cardboard drip try! and scrap carpet underneath.
Seems that the also common? draining of oil from tank to engine on standing has joined forces with the leaky seal to create my puddle.
What next ? Well ignored everything and went off on the drive.
No abnormality.
On return cleaned puddle, renewed cardboard drip tray, parked car and went for a cuppa. have checked each day since and we are back to literally 2 drips initially then nothing much more.
This has spurred me on to "consider" getting the seal done. Will need to prevaricate a while longer just to see if we really really have to spend the money.
If/when it does get done will look to get Mr B's special Centa rubbery bits installed too.
P964, hello.
Keep in mind that cardboard will "wick" and a few drops of oil will spread to be quite a large spot on cardboard.
Put something like wax paper on the cardboard and see how much you have actually lost. But sitting for 3 weeks allow any minor wetness inside the Centa housing to migrate to the hole and drip out.
As you've thought, it's probably the rear crank seal. In a motorcycle application using this motor, they usually run a wet primary next to the crank output so even a drip or two leak is just absorbed into the primary oil and it's not an issue.
But as you know, the motor has to come out to do this.
Don't know how many miles are on the M3W, but you may want to plan ahead and if you're up there in miles, maybe putting in new Centa rubber rods or Phil's urethane inserts. Maybe too a new clutch disc while you're in there.
The problem with just a drip over time is that it does tend to blow back under the M3W and will get everything in its way messy. Being winter there, maybe it's the right time to do the seal and others etc.
Or you could do what the dealership did, plug or tape off the hole. That's about like a new car customer complaining about a rattle in the dash and the dealer just tells them to turn up the radio a bit more so they cannot hear it...

Good luck with your drip!