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[quote=SpeedMog]As has been pointed out Aero's are not selling too well in the USA and so that will hit residuals. If dealers have new stock not moving them the consequences for residuals follows. You are undoubtedly right. However, it is my understanding, from what was reported from St.Tropez, that the MMC has again invested to make the Aero US crash compatible for next year. Was there mention when the new round of crash tests will begin? as a rule of thumb most cars are expected to loose about 40% of their value in the first two years and there is not really any reason why Morgan's are exempt from this. I do not believe that was ever correct of Morgans until the last few years. All US Morgan trads sold in the US in the last 2-3 years are selling at a premium. Those older than that sell for a much higher premium. The simple fact is that residuals have softened where mogs are oversold. The market is now much smaller and there are many more cars being sold to it. However, the Aeros seem to be vulnerable for other reasons. I haven't convinced myself what the reasons are yet but this forum has been very helpful. Lorne
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You are undoubtedly right. However, it is my understanding, from what was reported from St.Tropez, that the MMC has again invested to make the Aero US crash compatible for next year. Was there mention when the new round of crash tests will begin? The prototype already had the petrol tank in the new position, and I understand that the tank in the trad will also be moved into this central position; as well. No details were given of the exact state of the testing regime, as the work on the Series IV is an ongoing project. I do not believe that was ever correct of Morgans until the last few years. All US Morgan trads sold in the US in the last 2-3 years are selling at a premium. Those older than that sell for a much higher premium. I think that the UK and North American markets have operated to a different dynamic for some considerable time, as my first Plus 8 was sold at a profit after nearly four year of ownership, my second, after a shorter period I basically broke even, but my third was sold at a loss in the early 90's.  Whilst Peter Morgan was very canny at balancing the price versus quantity equation for very many years, once they started to increase the production the writing was on the wall for profit-taking in the UK on Morgan's with one or two exceptions. Harvey-Jones has a lot to answer for. However, the Aeros seem to be vulnerable for other reasons. I haven't convinced myself what the reasons are yet but this forum has been very helpful. Whilst Aero residuals have changed as the perception of the cars has changed, I don't think that the current residuals (again in the UK) are any worse than other Morgan's, or for the Roadster in particular the Aero's may even be stronger. I doubt very much whether anyone in the UK buying a new Morgan expects it to be worth more than they paid for it in a few years time, as these days Morgan's depreciate until they reach sort sort of threshold and then they do not normally drop much below that. For Series I Aero's this seems to be a main dealer price of circa £35k, although you occasionally see private cars being sold off for whatever reason; for much lower prices. There is little doubt that the Aero 8 has not been the success in the USA that many of us would have liked to see, and there are many reasons for this. Maybe the automatic gearbox will do the trick, but I do not know enough about that market to say whether this single item will be the complete panacea; on its own I quite frankly doubt it.
Brian
1970 Morgan Plus 8 - Moss Box (Indigo Blue) 2014 Morgan SP1 (Rocket Red) 2015 Morgan Plus 8 (Rocket Blue)
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Was there mention when the new round of crash tests will begin? Not that I recall. as a rule of thumb most cars are expected to loose about 40% of their value in the first two years and there is not really any reason why Morgan's are exempt from this. I do not believe that was ever correct of Morgans until the last few years. All US Morgan trads sold in the US in the last 2-3 years are selling at a premium. Those older than that sell for a much higher premium. Brian I agree with you on just about every other car I have owned other than a Morgan. I think Lorne is right here. My 1999 4/4 cost me £20k at three years old, which is exactly what it cost the first owner when new. It sold for £20k this year (albeit lost out on the mods I had made but the base car was the same). However, the Aeros seem to be vulnerable for other reasons. I haven't convinced myself what the reasons are yet but this forum has been very helpful. Share your thoughts Lorne and lets debate them 
Last edited by SpeedMog; 26/11/07 02:37 PM.
Phil Egginton 1979 4/4 4 seater
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Brian I agree with you on just about every other car I have owned other than a Morgan. I think Lorne is right here. My 1999 4/4 cost me £20k at three years old, which is exactly what it cost the first owner when new. It sold for £20k this year (albeit lost out on the mods I had made but the base car was the same). As I know that the money that you spent on mods was more than the value of the car itself Phil, I don't know what that proves other than the propensity for Morgan owner to spend vasts amounts of money on their cars; that in most cases they are unlikely to see back.
Brian
1970 Morgan Plus 8 - Moss Box (Indigo Blue) 2014 Morgan SP1 (Rocket Red) 2015 Morgan Plus 8 (Rocket Blue)
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As I know that the money that you spent on mods was more than the value of the car itself Phil, I don't know what that proves other than the propensity for Morgan owner to spend vasts amounts of money on their cars; that in most cases they are unlikely to see back. Ouch 
Phil Egginton 1979 4/4 4 seater
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Sorry Phil, the truth hurts. I know, I've taken the hit on two Aero's (so far!).  Nevertheless, I think the point I was making is still valid in that most Morgan's in the UK depreciate, in real terms, if they are purchased new.
Brian
1970 Morgan Plus 8 - Moss Box (Indigo Blue) 2014 Morgan SP1 (Rocket Red) 2015 Morgan Plus 8 (Rocket Blue)
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However, the Aeros seem to be vulnerable for other reasons. I haven't convinced myself what the reasons are yet but this forum has been very helpful. Share your thoughts Lorne and lets debate them Hmmm...ok. But we need to set parameters for the debate. Time period, region and questions to be dealt with. I am open. What would be best? Period: from the 2000 Geneva show and the original 600 orders that year. Or from any date to present. Region: UK only, all Europe, or all world Questions: Why are Aero residuals lower than previous Morgan experiences. Why aren't more of Morgan sales Aero? Perhaps our musings can help the powers that be. Lorne
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Why dont we start with the specific example of North America?
Phil Egginton 1979 4/4 4 seater
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I understand that the tank in the trad will also be moved into this central position; as well. Pity. The trad was not a difficult car to make compliant for a another decade..almost as is. There were designs capable of passing the new rear end crash tests and another airbag could have been sourced. Theta would have produced another decade on the old frame and cut costs immensely. Not to be. Lorne
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Whilst Peter Morgan was very canny at balancing the price versus quantity equation for very many years, once they started to increase the production the writing was on the wall for profit-taking in the UK on Morgan's with one or two exceptions. Harvey-Jones has a lot to answer for. I could not agree with you more. Harvey-Jones had no clue on the dynamics of Morgan production and sales. Peter Morgan operated on instinct and his instincts were most often excellent. More than that, they were extremely profitable after the rocky 60s. Yet the Harvey-Jones' counsel became the law of Pickersleigh Road nonetheless. The reasons for that about-face tell the tale of the present MMC. Whilst Aero residuals have changed as the perception of the cars has changed, I don't think that the current residuals (again in the UK) are any worse than other Morgan's, or for the Roadster in particular the Aero's may even be stronger. I am not sure the MMC's used car locator bears you out. Irrespective, the UK, where it came to trads, was in a very unusual spot for 2-3 years. The modesl were very aggressively oversold. As a result, sales, production share and residuals plummeted. They are just recovering now and will continue to do so, depending on what happens in 2009. There is little doubt that the Aero 8 has not been the success in the USA that many of us would have liked to see, and there are many reasons for this. What do you feel these reasons are? Lorne
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