Talk Morgan Forums Community The Malvern Arms Lockdown

The WHO has just made some pronouncements which could be taken as critical of NZ but the fact is we are business as usual here so our cautious early approach and closing borders has worked and the WHO has made some very questionable utterances lately. The UK does not need more lockdown but you do require a level of personal responsibility and maybe look at your border control -though how Lidl and Aldi etc would go without the 5 kilometers of trucks at Dover each day I dont know.
Off sailing this afternoon for the first summer Wednesday night race

Who has the cahoonas to tell vulnerable groups that they have to disappear from normal every day life to enable things to return to normal (close to) and the herd immunity allowed to develop?
Aged over 60 (55)? Go and hibernate.
Underlying health issues (chest/heart/cancer and chemo). Go and hibernate.
Caring for a vulnerable person? Go and hibernate.
Ethnicity. BAME? Go and hibernate.
TM has a high membership of “mature” people that would put them into such groups. How do we feel about it? How much of a risk taker are you?
How long for?
When (if) will a vaccine be available? This would be a huge help but until then we will have to rely on treatment.

I would love to see proof of this 'herd immunity'

Waikiore .... as the end result of a million years of surviving the onslaught of whatever viruses have rolled by without medical assistance or even the knowledge of what 'infection' actually is .... the fact that you're there typing may be proof enough

K

Widespread antibody build up is the basis of herd immunity. What is the situation with Covid 19?
The common flu mutates so new antibodies have to be formed each time. Flu vaccines are developed to cope. With Covid 19 there is no vaccine, antibodies are thought to have limited lifespan. This means cycles of infection with reliance on treatment, health problems for vulnerable groups, even death. Luckily flu vaccine is continuing to be relatively effective but not perfect as there are deaths from the effects on susceptible people with other health issues.
Covid 19 data suggests deaths significantly higher than flu. So, what is the acceptable death rate?
That is the not talked about factor in lockdown decisions. How many deaths are we prepared to accept?
Smoking....deaths directly associated with it plus the long term effects on health and early death require similar decisions.
Speeding...the same. Lots of debate for this though!

Indeed Sospan ..... one question I can't find the answer to is that many of the same people who claim limited value from immunity acquired after infection are the same ones pressing for a vaccine and suggesting good levels of immunity from tests so far .... I'm mystified as to why a vaccine made from part of the virus would give a useful level of antibodies and therefore immunity where naturally catching the the virus is claimed not to ? ..... I'm pro vaccine (and off to get my flu jab on Thursday) .... obviously for the vulnerable the vaccine (if and when it arrives) allows you to get whatever immunity is available without the risk of going the 'natural' route.

K

Current research shows that all people tested so far who were C19 positive also have antibodies. But very often they are quantitatively at a very low level. This means two things. That antibodies are there "at all" is the prerequisite for vaccines to work. But on their own, i.e. without vaccination, they do not protect against new infections.

Very nice metaphor!

I am sure I`ll use it some day.

Heinz ...... and yet with 37 million cases there have only been a handful of recorded reinfections ..... European countries have hundreds of thousands of 'recovered' patients (a quarter of a million in the case of Italy ) .... With the levels of monitoring going on in most European countries I would have thought that if reinfection was a significant possibility it would have been apparent in large numbers by now??

K

K, I very much agree with you on this observation, even if I do not know these figures precisely. But maybe people who were positive and seriously ill are much more careful and protect themselves better against new infections. That could explain the small number. On the other hand, people who tested positive without symptoms might not show symptoms even if they have a second infection. Or maybe there are many people who have never been tested, had no symptoms and have been positive twice over the months.
It would have to be very specific about finding people who had severe symptoms, were cured and how they react to a second infection.