Talk Morgan Forums Community The Malvern Arms Vaccination update

Talking of efficient surgeries . I have a lump come up on the middle finger of my right hand. After me attacking it it was still there. Phoned surgery, nursed phoned me back. She text me and told me to attach a photograph (a link in the text) and return. A course of antibiotics which I picked up from the chemist 2hrs later. Lump still there off to see the quack tomorrow.

a calm, interesting and measured opinion/analysis on the lockdown release plans

Watch from 38mins 45

https://youtu.be/5cnHWTIHYDk

Hmm

Not sure I agree with him (a sociologist from a third tier university):

- As of today, numbers infected and dying would have to fall by 90% to get back to the levels of last September

- Experience has shown us twice that as soon as we give people greater opportunity to mix, those numbers shoot up again

- If anything, the Government is being too optimistic in projecting a free-for-all at the end of June, by which time most people will not have had their second dose (and that projection is tantamount to telling them that they need not bother).

In emphasising date rather than data-based thresholds, the Government has done the very thing it said it was going to avoid and has encouraged many, one suspects, to feel that they can relax because it's as good as over. It isn't.

Completely agree. This government is either collectively as thick as mince or thinks that we are.

"We are going to be driven by data not dates"

"Schedule of coming out of lockdown is Date1 Date2 Date 3 Date4"

Do they really not understand that these two statements are completely contradictory? Or do they really think we won't notice?

I'm perfectly happy to stick with my data-based approach:

IF
(>21 days since 2nd Vacc)
AND
(Local cases < 50/100,000)
THEN
GoTo Pub
ELSE
WaitaBitLonger
ENDIF

Beg to disagree, M3W55.

Whilst you are right, when people were allowed to mix in the past the numbers shot up this time there is a massive difference: As of 24 Feb almost 16m people have been vaccinated once and 0.5m twice. Evidence from vaccinations in December and January shows clearly the protective effect of a single vaccination, with over 85% reduction in hospitalisations in the group vaccinated, against the previously experienced levels. More data is arriving from PHE next week that will extend the sample to include February.

The second vaccination is "belt and braces and may not add much protection.

In my local area infection rates have fallen to a level that PHE doesn't report them, hospital admissions are falling like a stone and likewise deaths.

The BIG test will be the impact of school return. If there is no subsequent spike and the rates continue to drop through April and May then the Governments June target is sensible.
But if there is a spike after the schools return we are going to have to wait until everyone over 18 is vaccinated. The vaccines may be approved for 16 to 18 year olds, but it will not be tried on younger children under the existing plans.

COVID will never be over, just as Influenza will never be over. Er will have booster COVID vaccinations every year, covering any new, emerging strains. Like Flu, it will kill 5,000 to 20,000 per year. We just have to learn to live (and die) with it.

Except that apparently there have been vanishingly few flu deaths this last year, and no cases at all in the last 7 weeks. Which just goes to show:

1. How effective simple hygiene measures like social distancing, hand washing and mask wearing are at preventing many viral infections
2. Just how enormously contagious and infectious C19 is in comparison to 'normal' flu

https://www.pulsetoday.co.uk/news/c...es-detected-in-england-this-year-to-date

Tests update. I have a place in Spain I have already not seen for 12 months- its also locked down.The car is 12 months out of ITV and has been on a trickle charger

I also have 4 return flights to Malaga vouchers from cancellations last next year.

Based on the Government Road map of coming out of lockdown I have now booked two flights one in July one in September 2021.

Fortunately I and SWMBO will be fully vaccinated (2 jabs each) and if Spain is still dodgy I can choose to move these flights at no cost if necessary.

I then looked into how and where to get a fit-to=fly 72 hour before flight test. Found out the following is the current situation:

1. Cannot be done on or by NHS even if willing to pay.

.2. To get a UK test and certificate privately is between £99 and £180 per person per flight.

3. As yet I cannot find anything on Internet for for How, where or how much for test in Spain to get home.

4. Assuming Spanish costs will be similar to UK the fit to fly Covid tests "could" cost us between £400 and £700 per round trip. (between 2 and 3 times the cost of airfares)

The purpose of this post is to inform so that in the event you a planning offshore holiday to include costs of tests.

The purpose of this thread is NOT to solicit views on whether individual TT-ers would or would not go offshore this year.

My hope is that as we get nearer to 12 June other fit to fly Covid solution will be in place eg Vaccine Passports and/or use of NHS testing capability to provide fit to fly tests at a more reasonable cost..

My local large infrastructure (5 tents etc etc ) test centre appears to be permanently empty/under utilised.

We have had to keep a factory open all the way through the last year and ironically we have had by far the lowest level of absenteeism due to sickness that we have every experienced.

Normally through the winter period we will budget for an increased level of absenteeism due to colds flu etc - and this year absolutely nothing.

Peoples shopping habits have had a large effect on the flu reduction as well, this is a significant factor together with the supermarket separations etc. Online shopping taking off big time..
There are many vectors responsible for the reduction this being one.

Prior to the C factor the great British public were the great unwashed post public lavatory visit as I'm sure some will have noticed, this appears to have changed for the good too, so it seems it's never too late for a little childhood education in hygiene when faced with a life threatening disease.

And don't underestimate the probability that death by COVID also includes hidden flu victims.