Talk Morgan Forums Community The Malvern Arms Vaccination update

An interesting WHO report from 10/03/2021, I am frankly surprised at the similarity in death rates considering how far ahead we are in the vaccination process. Full WHO Report.


The other reaction is that the horror stories we are hearing about France, Germany and Italy are not borne out by the statistics, so yet more Doris spin going on or what, I have to say I've never trusted wild blondes ever..

IMHO The figures are not too representative of the current trend situation.

There is now clear evidence in the UK numbers of mortality falling faster amongst older, vaccinated, people. Using the latest, more rigorous, ONS data, over the 4 weeks from the peak of Covid deaths in January, deaths fell by 70% in the over 80s but only by 55% in the 60-70 age group. Mortality rates have been very consistent from week to week until now.

New cases per day have fallen by 90% from a peak on 10th January. The lockdown and some people having the vaccine has clearly worked, The Spring 2020 lockdown was more severe - but we saw a much slower decline in new cases. The UK's rate is now one of the lowest in Europe, 15% lower than even Germany.

Hospitalisation (current numbers in hospital) have fallen by over 75% since Jan 18th. Daily admissions over the last week are 83% lower than their peak.

Mortality has also dropped by 83%, since January.

It looks like the UK is possibly two weeks away from the total death rate falling to normal levels for the time of year. Two weeks ago it was 12.8% higher - the excess death rate. I'm assuming that Covid deaths fall by 25% per week for the next 2 weeks. That may be an under-estimate of the reduction.

The headline Covid deaths will still be approx. 600 each week, which sounds a lot. But it is less than half the normal daily rate for respiratory deaths at this time of year. Remembering that Covid deaths have replaced most other respiratory causes of deaths in the data.

I've been out with one or two wild blondes over the years - usually been good for a laugh

As long as they weren't pointing at you and laughing..............

I don't think I'll be drawn on that one!

Down here in semi rural south wiltshire they are a week into he over 50s and expect to finish well before the end of March, so the over 40s will start and as long as vaccine supply keeps up they expect to have all the over 18s offered by the middle of May,

As of 12 March positive tests are running at 36 per 100,000 and deaths within 28 days of a positive test is 3. One person has been admitted to Salisbury District Hospital with Covid. There are 10 patients in hospital and one on a ventilator.
As IMHO said, the rates are approaching normality for this time of year.

I have always been wary about Covid related stats from day 1. The ones I give most credence to are actual hospital admissions as they are more clear cut. The problems with testing accuracy and the way it was introduced and not fit for purpose add a certain level of discredit to the reported results. Poor data collection means unreliable analysis. Also deaths reported as caused by Covid has a poor catch-all methodology. International comparisons are also poor due to the variations used by each country. A lack of comparable consistency.
Current UK stats based on hospital data are showing significant improvements. The biggest positive I see from the Government was the early commitment to vaccine development AND preordering of doses. It has certainly appeared to accelerate the reduction of cases ( again using hospital data).
The future? Initially similar to the flu type of vaccination as a basis to start with modifications as more is learned about the long term immunity the vaccines give. Basically we will have to accept that Covid viruses are here to stay and we have to learn to accept that and live with it. Probably an intervention for localised outbreaks as has been done already to varying extent.
There are huge areas that should be learned from. Notably clearer communications of true facts as opposed to the garbage that has been and still is out there. The anti-vax issue needs resolving. The more deniers there are the more likely we are to see outbreaks. The trouble is governments have been lax in learning lessons and setting up future strategy.
Ah well, golf next week and hopefully not long afterwards some chances to go for proper drives.

It’s pathetic- had a jab yesterday and been zonked all day today - feel like they slipped me a dose of the Russian Sputnik which has got mixed up with Novichok

Man up! It's only a tiny prick.

Had my AZ jab Tuesday at 5pm. 5 days later, my arm is still sore and slightly red. I have been feeling slightly unwell since then too. Today, I am still a touch tired.