Talk Morgan Forums Community The Malvern Arms Financial planning: what indexes are you using?

Just fiddling about with a spreadsheet or two, trying to keep our finances under control, and I found myself wondering what other folks are thinking about likely future trends in interest rates, inflation, and future asset returns might be?

I'm extremely risk-averse and financially pessimistic, so I'm working on 5% inflation, 3% increase in index-linked pension, 0% increase in equity-based investments, and 5% increase in land/property assets, which are earmarked to pay for a nursing home for either/both of us.

Whaddya reckon? too pessimistic - or too optimistic? And what have I forgotten?

Tim, you need a special column for Fuel...my fixed deal leccy has just expired & gone from £80 to £167, that's not 5% inflation

Yes indeed. One thing that works slightly in my favour in a strange way is that as I'm an Ecotricity customer, I already pay what many would consider a huge amount for electricity, as Ecotricity is a 'deep green' supplier - absolutely everything they deliver is from renewables, so my current rate is £0.36/unit with no cheap rate options. So I'm already exposed to the price increases with no need to cater for a big jump.

I have a 4.8KW solar array that provides getting on for ⅔ of my annual consumption, but I plan on the basis of no contribution at all, so an annual electricity bill of £1200. That way at the end of the year I can spend the excess on a case of decent malt or something

I would say that those are not bad assumptions.

Tim,


Being an accountant who for years spent most of my life producing business and personal forecasts can from experience (despite the use of the best economic mapping tools and information available) assure you that no matter what predictions/factors you build in beyond 12 months or so it is basically 'star gazing' and with unknown or unquantifiable factors throwing spanners in the works.

There were some indicators of the pending the 2001 Tech Market shares crash following Y2K was totally predictable. The 2007/8 US Prime Real estate market crash that flattening the world and lead to a massive recession was greater than ever expected in its depth. We are seeing similar 'warning' signs for the Chinese Housing market overvaluation and potential world wide readjustment economic impact already predicted to be deeper than the recession caused in 2007/8. History usually demonstrates a cycle of recession/realignment every decade or so.

For myself if try I to exercise some form of financial budgeting, I tend to set weekly or monthly targets within an annual plan and use a very out of fashion vehicle..ie cash to pay for things. Handing out real money, very quickly focuses one's mind whereas a number £ on the page of a credit card tends to divorce the immediacy of the spend from the payment of the credit card bill...a kind of gratification now paid off in a few months time, somehow softens the blow. Pay cash/debit card and the impact is immediate the money has left the account and is gone, can often focus the mind more. But I come from an old school approach to budgeting gifted to me by my paternal Grandfather, who started with nothing and was amazing successful...it simple was this 'if you haven't the brass in your pocket you cant afford it' of course those were the days before credit was the norm.

Best of luck with your projections

I just do what the Memsahib tells me to do. I also lie a lot

I leave it to a professional to manage for us ..

I do both Richard. I have some in shares , ISAs etc I manage and DC schemes under one wrap SIPP. The wrap SIPP is then split 50:50 actively managed & tracker funds.

+1

My advisor took one look at my portfolio and evaluated it thus https://youtu.be/5Z0c-8IbYRU?t=106