Talk Morgan Forums Community Vehicle Talk (non-Morgan) Energy price rise.

The senior civil servants I mixed with were only concerned about career progression and fitting in.

I'm not so sure that ICE's are going to be around for decades to come, I believe petrol will become so expensive with a reduced delivery network...on much lower volumes, with car manufacturers not supporting the ICE much beyond the new car final warranty period after 2030 cut off, The ICE service and repair industry will diminish quite quickly there after. Just look to what is happening to the M3W, production has only recently stopped but already availability of spares eg S&S do not look promising............

OTOH, look at Cuba. Once the manufacturers stop making spares available for their cars, other people will step in to meet the demand, if there is any.

For sure the continuation of the current range of seriously dull cars won't be supported, but I don't see why the Classic Movement won't expand to cover worthy more modern cars.

In respect of EVs, at present there's a total failure on all levels to recognise affordability issues, and accessibility issues for home charging. Petrol & diesel may not be as widely available as now, but that's been a trend for years.

2030 is still eight years away and nothing evolves as predicted anyway.

Petrol and diesel will be available for many years to come.

According to the RAC foundation: "In the first nine years of the vehicle’s life, the only scrappage that occurs results from write-off accidents. Thereafter there is a steady increase in scrappage till a peak is reached at around 14 years. By 20 years most cars have been scrapped, the remainder being kept as classic cars".

So if ICE cars are actually pulled from sale in 2035 it will be 2055 before the fleet will be all electric. Aviation gasoline is produced in modest amounts, it is more expensive than motor gasoline but given that ICE light aircraft will still be sold and used after 2035 there will be fuel for classic cars.

For commercial vehicles diesel will remain the only option for much longer as to date there is no viable none ICE HGV. HGCs are used for longer than cars, so even if there are EV or hydrogen HGV tractors by 2035 it will be 30+ years before the volume market for diesel disappears.

They said the same about 4 star petrol and it was gone in no time at all, as the economics of the refining, distribution and retailing network could no longer support the viability of it.

The biggest issue for ICE most likely it will be banned from every village, town and city centre over the coming years.........its starting to happen already with major cities, it will be so outrageous priced into obsolescence for the masses. The emphasis on road network priorities will change, greater priority to clean green transport, even EV's may struggle to get into city centres (congestion charging back on the agenda) once the push for public transport gets hold............

Time will tell, but we and ICE I'm sure will be seen as part and parcel of unacceptable behaviour and at the wrong end of the spectrum of anti social behaviour for the upcoming children of today.

The residual value of ICE vehicles will start to diminish, making economic repair increasingly less viable beside availability of spares issues. Lets see how much emissions testing changes for the MOT.

Exactly, I saw their thinking and action plans on the ' Millenium bug' and the UK adopting the Euro........it was quite worrying and at the same time frightening as their countenanced projected costs and solutions were out of all context to the issue at hand.

Its interesting that Caterpillar are throwing all their resources into hydrogen power, they certainly see a short life ahead for the ICE and will have hydrogen powered equipment available shortly.

The Y2K problem was very real, and required an awful lot of behind the scenes work to fix. We knew about it for decades, I was a software developer in the 1980s and often had to deal with code written back in the 1970's that frequently had comments like "NB, this bit won't work in the next century" or variations thereof. The thing was back then people would write code fully expecting it to be rewritten or refactored way before the risk became an actual issue, and back then there was a very real need to save every possible byte of machine space.

All through the 1990s organisations with large legacy systems spent many tens of thousands of analyst hours trawling back though old code identifying and fixing problems so that the systems would carry on working successfully. I did practically nothing else from 1995 to 1998 except redesign databases to be Y2K compliant, and converting and migrating the data to the new design. Thanks to all the work our team, and the equivalent teams in thousands of organisations worldwide, there were no problems as we switched over. Our organisation didn't even need to put any special measures in place as we'd spent years doing the analysis, modifications and testing so we were sure it would be ok.

The media, for reasons best known to themselves, decided to trumpet this as "See? There wasn't an issue after all!" rather than "Bloody hell, those people did a good job, didn't they?"

Without question there was a legacy issue to be fixed, at the time I was part of the DWP IT division and appreciate the issues that arose and the 1000's of man years of work to be Y2K compliant...however, a problem known for decades was left to the very last moment to be resolved and rather than training up more designers, programmers and testers to met the additional work, they went to the contractor market at huge expense to the taxpayer to create the additional resource in a short lead time. Then creating a DWP nerve centre focused on problems arising across the world starting with NZ as the Millennium crossed over the time zones across the globe. Replicating similar other Departmental nerve centres doing exactly the same thing at immense cost to the tax payer. The cost was horrendous, all due to lack of planning of changes to software systems for Y2K compliance for benefit payment systems that were being continuously changed to reflect various government's benefit policy. Other simple things like date of birth (DOB) although collected by most benefit/taxation systems the only reliable subject to scrutiny DOB was the pension system. Ever wondered why Government forms eg UB40 ask you what other benefit you receive, it quite simple because the payment engines were built in silo's and didn't talk to one another. so if you claimed unemployment benefit the DWP wouldn't necessarily know you were claiming benefits anywhere else. It has improved but it cost billions to re-platform from ICL to IBM .

Dont get me going on the Euro planning, were it was proposed to change the 2 digit decimal point field to a seven digit decimal point field to allow greater accuracy in converting sterling balances to Euro balances at cut over that ran in 1000's of man years work, for an issue that could have been dealt with in primary legislation dealing with the adoption of the Euro.