Good bit of detective work on the new damp patch, I have done the same. I took off the lower bit of the air intake yesterday for a view of the jubilee clip you had been working on, but no clues there for me. Incidently the upper part of the air filter, which is screwed on, how does this bit fully come off. Do you have to remove the jubilee clip at the top right?
As i speak the roads are dry and salt free for the first time in a week so I will be getting out there for a blast and further checks