Lots of ideas on what the future will look like, but very little to hold on to.
The way I see it societies in what we usually called the developed world became very VERY sick. People just aren't as rich as they were 30 years ago, there are no jobs on offer unless you are either under or clearly over-qualified, proper houses became a dream for young people, and the whole of society lives with a constant fear and uncertainty of the future). But people still remember how it was just a couple of decades ago. And nobody understands what happened.
So, what happens next. Knee jerk reaction, societies blame: a) the long standing traditional politicians and parties; b) the international trade and the foreign countries that "took our jobs, closed our factories, ruined our society".
And such societies, driven by the oportunistic politicians (and/or public figures) that usually show up under these circumstances, have their say, in a way that looks more like a cry of anger.
The UK had Brexit and the US has Trump.
From where I stand watching, Brexit was a sad decision but wasn't really a worry, the EU loses an important country but doesn't really need the UK to exist and work as intended. Geopolitics to the rescue, the fact that the UK is an Island makes its brexit vote simple to implement. Of course it helps too that the UK was never a part of Schengen or the Euro. And concerning the European defense against the bully from the East, that was and remained mainly a NATO job, not an EU one.
Now Trump taking also the USA to na isolacionist route begs for a diferent level of concern. Of course international trade will suffer if the US suddenly become fully protectionists, but somehow that isn't worrying me much, the EU (even without the UK) remains a formidable economic force in its own right so a deal of some sort will always be achieved or kept.
My main concern now is twofold:
a)Will we see more European countries follow suit in this isolacionist "blame the foreigners and close our borders" trend? We might, and the main concern is now France. Geopolitics tell us that if France does a "Frexit", the EU is over. And Europe again in shambles is something I wouldn't like to leave my kids to see.
b) Will Trump weaken the resolve of NATO, as feared, leaving the EU uncertain of the steadiness of their over the pond ally, when facing the bully audibly growling at the gates of the Eastern borders of Europe? If this happens, Europe will need to step up, with or without the UK. And I suppose that would bring with it a surge in the military power of Germany, the only country - with France - that can afford to follow that route.
I fear more the spreading of isolacionism in Europe than I do the weakening of NATO. In any case, there's a lot to think about from these last electoral acts and a lot to fear for what comes next. These are troubled times.
