I think your assumptions about width may be correct Heinz.
There is one other option of course and that would be to use the older (narrower) axle, it won't be much difference because the eye can detect just a few mm. Once fitted, see how it looks. Then you have options of taking a slice off the rear wings, getting bespoke wires or just wider tyres on the rear, assuming adequate clearance on the inner wing panels.
Apart from the effort involved in narrowing the rear fenders a little, it would be very appealing because the car would then look less like a trapezoid. I love the look of Morgans that appear in a relatively parallel line. But there is still a question, do you think that the connection of the front wings would still be right or were they also cut a little wider at the rear on my 4/4?
And you say, somewhat more in the subordinate clause, that the older BTR axle was actually a little less wide. Is it also your assumption, as I suspect, or are you sure that the axle was narrower?