Talk Morgan Forums Community The Malvern Arms Climate Change, The Facts

The "scientific calculations" used to create the climate models are being seen to actually be rather conservative when compared to actual observations - so in that case one could legitimately criticise the models as being inaccurate.

But what that tells us is that the climate is changing faster and in more detrimental ways than originally thought, not that we don't have a problem.

Here's one example:


Observed sea level rise since 1970 from tide gauge data (red) and satellite measurements (blue) compared to model projections for 1990-2010 from the IPCC Third Assessment Report (grey band). (Source: The Copenhagen Diagnosis, 2009)

Here, the models have understated the problem. In reality, observed sea level is tracking at the upper range of the model projections. There are other examples of models being too conservative, rather than alarmist as some portray them. All models have limits - uncertainties - for they are modelling complex systems. However, all models improve over time, and with increasing sources of real-world information such as satellites, the output of climate models can be constantly refined to increase their power and usefulness.

There's loads more good scientific information over at http://skepticalscience.com

Many people have made the perfectly reasonable point that the Earth has undergone massive climactic changes in the past and will survive the current changes too. Which is quite right, the only issue really is that unless we take action now it probably won't have many humans left on it, and those that do manage to stay alive will be fighting over resources like water and liveable habitat - and this will likely to be within our grandchildren's lifetimes.

Well that will make a change to fighting over oil......

We survived the last Ice Age...
So I'm sure that Homo Sapiens won't become extinct, yet.
But life will be very different.

Since my home sits about 25 feet above the ocean maybe I should start building an ark.

As long as it is not made from concrete, a huge contribution to greenhouse gasses.

I don't think most folks on here need to worry overly, but our descendents?

As for all the school kids jumping on the bandwagon and taking strike days off from school, maybe they could start closer to home, by stopping littering, and trashing the local environment? Maybe while they have their days off school they could use there time wisely and pick up all their rubbish (including a lot of plastic)?

Hypocrisy is a wonderful thing!

I moved into my house 30years ago. Iam 30ft from the Chesapeake bay and at 9ft elevation. From my observations nothing has changedin 30years.
5 years ago NOAA erected a tide guage a mile from my house. That shows no change in 5 years.
Climate change is all about the sun, it waxes and wanes just like the moon but in thousand year cycles.Right now the sun is heading to a minimum, its going to get cold. Check out "Grand solar minimum" on u tube for more information.

The "grand solar minimum" circle should make you more nervous than anything else. The sun is at a minimum and the global temperatures are rising. What will happen, when the sun's energy level returns to maximum?

This is a good explanation of the Grand Solar Minimum (GSM)

https://ncas.ac.uk/en/climate-science-hi...d-solar-minimum

Just because the sun's energy is less doesn't mean we can ignore CO2 output.
A GSM is likely to make the winters in the northern hemisphere more extreme, as was in the 1600s, so increasing the use of heating energy, but reducing the output from PV.

The climate is such an incredibly complex system that tinkering with details is pointless, instead we need to be building infrastructure that is capable of managing changes that are presently not able to be properly defined.

Or just stop worrying about it.

And all those spray cans of paint that they use to vandalise walls, rail waggons, bridges, and any other convenient surface in the public view. The manufacturing of, propelants, solvents, etc must all contribute to pollution for a totally useless waste.

An interesting bit of film showing retreating alpine glaciers.