Talk Morgan Forums Community The Malvern Arms Coronavirus / Corona Virus

Pandy, regarding your link



Often read Guardian articles (mostly on the web as I don't 'do' newspapers these days) ..... I'm very wary of their 'opinion' section however ..... they seek out virulently anti-government contributors (no pun intended) and sidestep editorial responsibility because it's a sort of 'hyde park corner soap box' of the media world.

The guy may be right ....tho, saying this is a new virus and we can't have reliable knowledge of it ...then proclaiming with the certainty of appearing to know what it will do, criticising highly qualified teams that have been focussed on modelling this specific outbreak in our specific situation, seems contradictory

My concern with the heavy 'lock down' policy is that, unless you want to crash your economy and see mass starvation and civil unrest, you have to let all those unexposed people back on the street sometime fairly soon, such is the complexity and interdependence of our society ....and with the mobile nature of the modern world, re-introduction of the virus is pretty much certain ....back to square one ....it would be the ideal strategy if we were 4 weeks away from a reliable cure/vaccination ....that doesn't appear to be the case.

The UK position isn't 'do nothing and see who makes it' ....we're planning reduced contact and peak-flattening measures ...to be introduced when the monitoring and modelling says is the right time ....our teams of experts may be totally wrong but they may be totally right (or maybe somewhere in between) .... time will tell.

K

But why prefer the view of that professor of epidemiology, to this professor of epidemiology?

I think it is only proves that this a new virus, with no agreement from the experts as to whether there is a single correct approach.

Four experts in a room are worth five opinions as a minimum.

Quite clearly the UK approach is the correct one. Such a shame that the rest of the world is wrong.

In Italy, the number of deaths in a 24-hour period reached a new high, up by 368 since Saturday to reach a total of 1,809. Of those, 1,218 were recorded in the Lombardy region, which is home to the business hub of Milan.

We shall only know whose strategy was right about this time next year, like Brexit there are no "real experts" these are both new events and we need to give it time.

Nobody should think that that is unexpected. The really strict regulations have only been in place for a week, and minor restrictions for two weeks. Simple logic shows that if you have an incubation period of 2 weeks we still have another week or two to go before we see a reduction in cases. It should also be pointed out that people who are seriously ill take a long time to recover. We are now seeing provision beeing made to move recovering patients to the hospitals that used to cater to TB patients for lung rehabilitation.

One of the worst areas is Bergamo, 40 km from here.

That's a bit close to home, like I said time will tell us who got it right or not.

Interesting the Germany has closed it's borders now, for a major trading nation that is a big move but a necessary evil.

We shall find out which set of experts were right in about 18 months.

Remember, an expert can be defined, thus.

Ex... something living in the past
(s)pert = a useless uncontrolled jet.

All experts take data from the past and use it to predict the future.

I wish Lord Haw haw would stop giving correspondence courses, people are beginning to sound like him.
Nick

those who are so keen on lockdowns .. just don’t go out and don’t do anything, no one stopping you going on your own lockdown.