Talk Morgan Forums Community The Malvern Arms Coronavirus / Corona Virus

Gambalunga ....do you really think the designers of the modelling software are unaware of the lag between starting isolation and the reservoir of already infected people running down and slowing the numbers entering the health system?....but us lads on a car forum are much better informed ..... and if the dieing and recovery 'holes' were the same size, that would mean a 50% fatality rate ....that would be a disastrous situation but doesn't seem to be anything like the case

K

I agree Alistair, it does seem laughable, but people are taking it seriously and it does seem to function. I went out with the dog earlier this evening and did not encounter a single soul in a 20 minute walk. From our window, looking across the Port, we can see the main road on the lake front. At 5pm on a Sunday it would jam packed yet today it vatied between 5 and 10 minutes for a single car to pass.

I think the main effect it has is making people think what they are doing before they go out and the result is that people are being responsible.

At 9 o'clock there was another "flash event" people opened their windows and waved torches up in the sky. Sounds silly but people talked to their neighbours for a few minutes and it was a bit of light hearted fun. More in the cities but even here there has been singing, music playing, pot lid banging and other other community "flash events". I think it started with everyone opening their windows an clapping to thank the emergency services and medical staff for the job they are doing.

Well If we take the glass to contain only those hospitalised there is still a lot of water in the glass and it is not coming out the holes as fast as it is being poured in at the top. The hole for deaths is actually slightly smaller.

This is from the official report at 5 pm on Sunday.



It should be stressed that less than 50%, 9663 people out of 24,747 have been hospitalised. They are not classified as cured until they no longer return a positive swab. About 125,000 swab tests have now been performed so about 20% of those tested have returned a positive result.

We went for a walk along the Embankment in Dartmouth today and walking back through the town the bars, restraunts and shops were very quiet indeed.
This is the first fine day we have had for a week or so and there would be a lot of people out for a stroll along the embankment but most preferred to stay away today it seemed.

That may stem from what you are seeing in the US vs the blanket coverage in the UK. You can watch BBC or Sky (other channels incessantly covering CV19 are available) for 3 hours and find less than 20 minutes of coverage of any other subject.

We had our ski trip to Austria booked for April (one day driving from UK to Strasbourg, then second day via Lindau to Ischgl). On 10th March I checked with the hotel and they said the resort was operating normally. Just been informed yesterday that the Austrian government has closed the ski resorts with effect today 15th March. Various European countries imposing border controls now. Things are changing rapidly and it's easy to criticise government actions while sitting on the sidelines but these are difficult decisions.

Our Viking Rhine cruise at the beginning of April has been canceled. Bettter luck next year!!!

I'm about to go into close contact with about 2000 kids and 250 adults, as are 1/2 million of my colleagues across the UK.

Thankfully, due to exposure of every kind of worldwide disease over the last 14 years, I have a pretty advanced immune system. I still get the old sneeze and sniffle, but nothing that wipes me off my feet - haven't had a days sick leave for around 6 years (if you don't count riding a motorbike into a parked car )

They've made a few token concessions around school, and started to piut loads of hand santizer in rooms, but our suppliers have now run out, so it didn't quite make it as far as our history classrooms. They banned 'collective worship' on Friday (280 kids in a hall x 5) but obviousy couldn't ban lunch, which is 400 kids in a canteen......

Still, I'm teaching the History of Medicine at GCSE, so it giving us lots of good discussions, and providing some cultural references for the kids

“So” I understand why the UK is trying to slow & move the peak infection point, as the NHS will not be able to cope. But is this the same reason in other countries? Essentially the virus is now part of the worlds “bugs” and 4 out of 5 people will only get a mild form of the symptoms. Why stop the world for this particular virus? Yes I understand percentages & numbers, but other diseases, suicides & accidents, kill an awful lot more people.

That should work well for the herd immunity experiment.
Just have to hope that you don't have any asymptomatic carriers. It is not so much the risk to the children, whose systems seem by and large able to cope, but the risk that they will carry it back to their parents and grandparents.

If I understand the present thinking on how the most severe cases are occurring it is the person's immune system fighting the virus that is causing the lung inflamation. Tocilizumab used in conjunction with antiviral medicine is showing good results by reducing lung inflamation.