Talk Morgan Forums Community The Malvern Arms Coronavirus / Corona Virus

I imagine it's pretty widespread through school. We have over 60 different languages spoken, and a large Italian contingent so it will have come in from one of numerous possible channels.

Had five emails in already (I look after a Year Group - 280 kids) either from parents who are either really ill, and don't want their child to spread it, or where the children have compromised immunity and don't want to take the risk. Those are just the ones who will bother contacting. Many just won't turn up.

We also have several staff who are in the 'at risk' category so hopefully they will take the decsision to self isolate (although many won't due to the extra pressure it puts on their colleagues).

It should be noted that Italy is not a third world country and, with all its problems, has an advanced and free health care system. Italy has done more testing for the virus outside of any other country with the exception of China. I think that on that basis we can take the figures as being reasonably reliable.

To say that 4 out of 5 people will only get a mild form of the symptoms is a little ingenuous. The Italian experience is that roughly 55% have mild symptoms and 45% need to be hospitalised. Nearly 10% of those need intensive care, that may mean life support. Italy simply does not have enough intensive care beds and departments and even buildings are being equiped in record time. So even with all the restrictions the current situation is close to overwhelming the health system.

All this in in addition, not instead of, all the usual causes of illness, hospitalisation, and death. By and large all those things are still happening (with perhaps a reduction in road and work related trauma in Italy due to the curfew like restrictions). If you saw the film of the rows of coffins building up at places like Bergamo I think your question would be answered. If it were not for modern medicine and emergency provisions (in other words if it was allowed to spread without control) we could be seeing mass graves come into use similar to when some of the great plagues occurred in the past.

What I would criticize (as in the decision to close the resorts in France) is in the timing. In Switzerland they announced the closure of the ski resorts on Friday 13th, so the people who were to have travelled out on Saturday and Sunday were able to cancel and stay at home. By leaving it until Saturday night/Sunday morning(as did France) many people, including 30 000 Brits had travelled to the Alps, only to have to return home. A totally unnecessary displacement of a large number of people, exactly what is supposed to be avoided. Whilst you could say that it was foolish for these people to make that trip in view of current circumstances, as in most cases you can't get a refund for a cancellation unless it's imposed upon you, it's hardly surprising that folk decided to go ahead.

Peter, 4 out of 5, quoted on UK breakfast TV this morning. Interesting that different countries are coming up with different figures, again I wonder why.

Perhaps because the figures I mentioned are based on real data.

Judge for yourself.



The columns are: Hospitalised with symptoms, Intensive care, Home isolation, Total currently positive, Dismissed/cured, Deceased, Total cases, Tampons (swabs performed)
You can probably assume that those with mild symptoms are those currently in "Home isolation".

The first 3 columns add up to the 4th. The 4th, 5th, and 6th columns add up to the 7th.

By the way I would expect to see the figures for Southern Italy jump in the next week. More than 60,000 people fled to their family homes of origin in the South as travel restrictions were imposed. Some of them are bound to have carried the contagion with them.

According to the boss here, following Gov advice, if a family member is self isolating, you don't have to.....

They'll be issuing chocolate teapots next .

“So” Peter to follow on my questions. Why would UK Gov be lying to the UK population. Your figures which would seem to be correct for Italy anyway, cause my continued query. Is this virus much much more lethal, than some governments would have you believe. Or put it another way. “What are we not being told” & why. Imho this must be super serious to stop the world. Or politicians getting fixated.

Peter....you must tearing your hair out (😉) in frustration in getting your message across to some people on here. Give us here in the UK another two or three weeks and perhaps they will believe you.

I don’t believe we can believe the UK figures, as testing for the virus isn’t at the levels of other countries in spite of Grant Shapps comments today. If it wasn’t for WHO comments about Britain being way out of line with most other countries, we would be following the route of herd immunisation based on some mathematical modelling. No doubt there’s other modelling which gives a totally different result. I don’t dispute the governments scientific advisors are not experts in their field but going down the herd immunisation route smacks of a medical experiment....one that the rest of the world isn’t following. When you look at the percentage immunisation rates and those who would need hospital treatment quoted as a result of the “experiment” the NHS would be swamped and many would die as a result of no treatment being available. Of course a cynic might feel that the Government would welcome the mass dying of pensioners and the huge saving to the countries coffers!

I mention Britain’s approach earlier. I’d not be surprised to see Northern Island following Eires approach and Scotland doing their own thing, followed by Wales.

And the latest? Whilst we have a desperate need for ventilators, we also do for oxygen supplies!

On a much lighter note ( sorry to seem irreverent ) but if us old gits are confined to barracks just imagine how high +8 Rich will put his posting score !!!