Talk Morgan Forums Community The Malvern Arms does anyone understand the covid rules?

I really do feel sorry TBM, that you face this every school day.

As you say, it can only be a matter of time before a school somewhere sees a spike.

Kids walk past our house twice a day to the nearby school, and their behaviour isn't distanced!

The statistical presentation posted yesterday is interesting and would explain the like of Trump and Johnson's reactions to the pandemic. It may also explain why the words 'following the science' are often used by politicians. They are obviously referring to statistical science rather than medical.

I thought that the relationship between the lock-down measures and the spread of the disease was dismissed too lightly by simply predicting that the forward infection and death rate would now follow seasonal patterns regardless. So as with much statistical analysis it comes down to probability and this is where the politicians get scared and start reacting to perceived public pressures.

Not often mentioned is the death rate amongst the caring and medical staff. These statistics can't be regarded in the same way as excess deaths and I wonder what percentage of medical staff have died in previous epidemics as a result of catching the infection from the patients they are caring for. It would also be interesting to know what from of PPE they might have worn or used. This would help determine the perniciousness of this particular virus.

As a Fellow of the Royal Society of Chemistry with a special interest in Analytical Metrology, method validation and the use of certified reference materials and proficiency testing I'm possibly better qualified to hold an opinion on this matter than most. I was part of the ISO Committee the wrote the ISO/IEC 17034 Standard that defines how reference materials to be used in ISO 17025 accredited labs are to be produced and used.
I don't have all the answers, but I do know that there is a lot of bad science and poor interpretation of data in the media. Prof David Speigelhalter I respect enormously, and he has started to question how SAGE and politicians are using data.

This is his latest column in the Times:

Sir David Spiegelhalter: When a politician says they follow the science, that’s when I start screaming

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/...reToken=ddafe06be410ea8419f94a03e00d0e2f

Remember, SAGE is not a proper scientific committee, it’s conclusions are not subject to rigorous peer review, so it is effectively politically window dressing.


Back to COVID 19 testing: almost all of the testing uses a technique called PCR, or polymerase Chain Reaction. It is complex, if you want to know more, read this: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Polymerase_chain_reaction

PCR is a wonderful and powerful technique and when PCR arrived 25 or 30 years ago was widely expected to be "the" analytical tool that would bring clinical and food microbiology into the analytical world. It did not. Why?

The main reason is that PCR cannot differentiate between viable nucleic acid and fragments, the latter are of no diagnostic use whatsoever. A test that cannot distinguish between live and dead bacteria and viruses is of little use.

Despite this in recent months we have a significant growth in PCR COVID testing: why? Because it is seen as better than nothing: I’m not really convinced.

Much of this testing is done on samples collected at home by the public, so the sampling efficiency must be questionable. Many of those sampled may have had a non-clinically significant dose of the virus, which the body's immune system destroyed, leaving viral fragments. Remember, COVID is a respiratory corona virus and our immune system has faced these viruses for eons. Some of us have very well developed ability to deal with a low level corona virus infection, so have shrugged off low dose COVID infections.

Worse, PCR is NOT properly quantitative in the way most other analytical tests used in medicine are, so it isn't able to tell us how much live viral RNA is present.
I do wonder if any of the COVID tests and the sampling procedures meet the requirements of ISO 17025, or the Clinical equivalent, ISO 15189.
The UK Accreditation service, UKAS, has accredited two labs for the antibody test, and has 30 in the que, but make no mention of PCR.
https://www.ukas.com/news/first-accreditations-for-covid-19-testing/

There is at least one COVID 19 PCR Proficiency Testing Scheme from LGC, which is an important step, but that test doesn’t appear to be able to determine if the analysis is of viable RNA or dead viral fragments.

I therefore question if any of the PCR COVID test protocols have been properly validated, I know Eurofins are one of the main testing contractors: they offer V2 Plasmid Controls, but it would be interesting to know if COVID PCR tests are in the scope of their ISO 17025 accreditation.

I take the view that the PCR COVID test is at best a screening test and thus making major decisions based on data from such a procedure is bad science. In my view only if someone tests PCR positive and has one or more COVID clinical symptoms and tests positive for antibodies should it be classified as a "case".

At the moment it seems that there has been no statistically significant increase in hospital admissions, and I do not expect there will be, the next 4 weeks will be crucial.
Based on all the evidence available to me I do not accept the 6 person group limit is justified in any scientific way.

All that being said, I accept that anyone over 65, with existing co-morbidities, as I have (Bronchiectasis), needs to take a bit more care, so we avoid public transport, meeting with groups of people we don’t know, only go to the supermarket once a week and so on. But it does not and will not stop me helping out at the Aircraft Collection once a week and it will not stop Caroline riding her horse and getting exercise out in the fields and woods around our village. If the NHS tells me that I should return to full lockdown I will take very selective notice of their advice.

In the end we all make choices and take risks and must accept the consequences. As said in a previous post above, we want to get the most out of the next 10 years and we are not going to let fear of a disease stop us.

I've just seen on Twitter, first person anecdote but I've not seen corroboration, where someone was contacted by Serco Test and Trace and after having been told they had to travel 350 miles for a test they were told that due to lack of lab capacity in the UK, swabs were being sent to Italy for analysis.

I don't doubt it. EUROFINS, one of the contractors are reported in the Telegraph today to be sending samples to their lab in Germany.
Another report in the same paper has said that there were, yesterday, no available tests anywhere in the UK.

Spot on. But the Government and many members of the public insist that they know better.

A superficially appealing argument, but it misses one crucial point - the impact of one person's risky choices on others. If a person decides they don't wish to be constrained by restrictions like having to wear a mask when out and about, and decides they don't mind if they catch C19 as a consequence, they are also making the decision that they also don't care if they pass that infection onto anyone of whom they come within a couple of meters - and that's the problem, and that's why we have restrictions. It's all about social responsibility.

Yesterday I saw an interview on TV with a virologist from Essen, Prof. Dr. Ulf Dittmer.
In short, it was a little bit hopeful. He commented on some points:
Measured by the positive tests, mortality is significantly declining, at least in Germany. He mentions three assumptions, more tests in total, more younger patients, but also a third reason. At least in local clusters, it can be assumed that the virus is already diminishing in its dangerousness.

The professor said that in new generations, the virus will focus more on the nose, throat and pharynx, and thus become less dangerous.
Another point, he said he was working with an institute at a clinic in Wuhan. The reason is to do studies with people whose disease course is the oldest. It has been shown that although the antibodies are decreasing significantly, they are not disappearing but are being maintained at a significant level, which is a prerequisite for a vaccine to be effective. It is also probable that after a disease, the chances of only getting a weak course of the disease are higher if you are infected again.

But he also said that what he reported gives hope for in about two years' time! Not in weeks or months. And...that the prayed protection measure is indeed the conscientious wearing of masks because they reduce the viral load when breathing out. Likewise, we only have a chance of a mild course if we continue to be very careful with social contacts.

In summary, there is hope for improvement, but not overnight and not until until a vaccine is available in the meantime. Unfortunately, even a vaccine must be imagined to be statistically effective, and not necessarily as personally effective as a measles vaccine is. Wr do not know exactly about this point now but we should not become too euphoric.
In Germany it is also propagated that the elderly (i.e. me) should be vaccinated against flu, pneumocoge and whooping cough in autumn. This avoids additional stress if one should get Covid19.

One more word about a watched behaviour. When we returned from our holiday in Austria two weeks ago, we had ourselves tested against Corona in Bavaria free of charge. The fortunately negative result we had two days later on our mobile phone. There weren't very many drivers who had themselves tested at the special car park at the motorway...even if they were coming back from high risk areas like Kosovo or Croatia.

Well. I for one think the entire UK should be carpet bombed and we can start a fresh. Lets get rid of this lurgy once and for all.

Joking aside, its a shambles isnt it. Pubs open where social distancing might work at opening time but as soon as people start getting drunk it will all go wrong !! Schools open ( they have the dirties of all human life) picking noses, bums and such and flicking it around.

Busses open, work places open, Oh and protesting. If you're a BLM, extinction rebellion or Antifa, rules dont apply to you guys so crack on, London is open for large gathering so feel free to spread it around

Family gathering. 10K fine.

Oh, masks. another joke. Ive got a big bush beard. what are the chances of a mask containing a sneeze loaded with CV19 ? Zero, its going everywhere. I dont do dainty sneezing

Utter s%$t show. We are living in clown world.