Talk Morgan Forums Community The Malvern Arms Lockdown

Today it appears that you can get get it twice and the second time it can be worse, this needs far more investigation before proven as fact.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/...-cases-latest-study-vaccine-b990859.html

For the purpose of discussion, let’s assume it’s true. How does herd immunity work if the herd keep getting it and it gets worse each time they contract it eventually the herd dies out.

If it proven to be true then no vaccine will work for long, if at all.

In the UK the Medical Research Council funded the Common Cold Research Unit between 1946 and 1989. Its mission? To find a cure for the common cold, about 10% of colds are caused by a corona virus related to Covid. They failed.
More, here:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Common_Cold_Unit

Quite possibly and the alternative is? Stay indoors and we all die of starvation?

Quite possibly and the alternative is? Stay indoors and we all die of starvation? Or do we just sacrifice the poor to pick our food and deliver it to our doorsteps. Who will pay the taxes to pay the pensions or fund the NHS? Society has some hard choices to make, there is no getting away from the terrible fact that people get ill and die. If we can all try and stick to the social/hygiene guidelines then less will become ill 1st, 2nd or 3rd time around, bit like the flu...

Neptune .... we can't read too much into a 1 in 37 million happening (if indeed it is a happening and not an unfortunate sequence of false readings ) .... nature is messy and loves rare and random exceptions .... like rare allergies and conjoined twins .... until it is proven that a statistically significant number of the population get quickly reinfected it's an outlier ..... this virus is under a microscope globally (both literally and metaphorically) so anomalies are more likely to be spotted than in other outbreaks .... doesn't mean it's necessarily something novel and sinister ... just that we never looked hard enough before to spot the anomalies elsewhere.( or they were seen as scientific curiosities rather than something to be blared out by speculative early 21st century media)

K

Sorry to go on, but it's interesting that there's plenty of folk out there (and in here! ) who are convinced that the testing situation is 'shambolic' and 'in chaos' and the test itself gives high incidences of false positives and that the situation in America is worse than in Europe.

Given the possibilities for false readings, mixed up results, 'fumble fingers' etc .... why do we accept the 1in 37 Million-ish possibility that someone got it again and worse as gospel .... rather than the 1in 100,000 ish (or 1in 1000 ish??) chance that someone f*cked up ??

Odd things us Humans

K

Here are a few critical voices on the "Great Barrington" declaration.

https://www.sciencemediacentre.org/...ed-protection/?cli_action=1602608056.295

As a layman I can't estimate it...except that herd immunity has not been proven so far, and that C19, as far as we know, can take very insidious and unpredictable courses in individual cases even in younger people. We should not venture such generation-specific "openings", as suggested by Great Barrington, until vaccines are available...as a transitional strategy until there are enough vaccines for everyone, even in poor countries.

"A Corona Virus lesson"
This picture from World War II, a soldier carrying a donkey. It is not that the soldier loves donkeys or has some sort of perversion. What's happening is that the field is mined and that if the donkey was free to wander as it pleased, it would likely detonate a charge and kill everyone. The moral of the story is that during difficult times the first ones you have to keep under control are the jackasses who don't understand the danger and do as they please.

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But we do have a working flu jab that alters as the virus alters to give a high degree of protection to those that receive it, which I thought was the whole point of having so many companies producing different anti Covid inoculations. We will need recurring inoculations on a regular basis, what and when none of us including scientists know. I can see a future when you will only be allowed certain services, flights, access to venues if you can produce an inoculation certificate.



I'm afraid I don't know what the alternative that will resolve all this is, nor do any scientists. My thoughts are that we should have had a two week "circuit breaker" with a fixed start and finish (over the half term break?), with some additional precautions on reopening. For what its worth in my opinion reinforcing social distancing and more mask use should be part of that. We need to find a way to keep the economy going until a vaccine is available but personally I don't think that includes locking down everyone over 60 (from Barrington "Retired people living at home should have groceries and other essentials delivered to their home. When possible, they should meet family members outside rather than inside") whilst risking long term health problems in those that do catch it possibly totally overwhelming the NHS. Barrington also depends on people acting intelligently and responsibly which sadly many people (a minority but still a substantial number) can't be trusted to do.


I agree with you, which is why I put "needs more investigation before proven as fact" and "For the purpose of discussion, lets assume its true"

And finally before I lay down in a darkened room. On the subject of herd immunity:

The projection is a worst case scenario.
This could put the lives of 8.4 million Africans at risk if immunity was to be achieved naturally, Africa CDC added.
Herd immunity is a situation in which a sufficient proportion of a population is immune to an infectious disease through vaccination and/or prior illness to make its spread from person to person unlikely.
Wessam Mankoula, the incident manager for Covid-19 at the Africa CDC, told the BBC that the risk of deliberately giving the virus an avenue to spread will come at a high human cost.
“In a continent of more than 1.2 billion people, this will mean that we will let the infection get to between 720 – 840 million people to reach this herd immunity,” Dr Mankoula said.

As it appears my opinions have irritated so many, I shall bow out and make no further comment.
Cheering commences amongst those gathered

Neptune you haven't irritated me and I sincerely doubt any others on here, everyone is entitled to their opinion, especially on TM

Neptune ..... your opinions certainly don't irritate me .... my post was just my take on the same issue and I referenced you by name to avoid a big 'quote' box (as I just did again )

Interestingly .... Africa may be one of the places that, failing all else, might acheive herd immunity with the least disruption .... for whatever reason (well used immune systems or demographic spread perhaps ) ... the death rates in Africa are massively below predictions based on European models .... along with possibly a different view on the precariousness of life compared to well coddled Europeans that may mean that in the abscence of a vaccine the transition to herd immunity may be less damaging to African societies than European ones.

K