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Scruffy Oik
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Originally Posted by John V6
And don't underestimate the probability that death by COVID also includes hidden flu victims.


Blimey that would be unlucky, wouldn't it? Catch both flu and Covid, both of which turn out to be fatal. I certainly wouldn't bet on any deathbed racing tips from that person. smile


Tim H.
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Why are we still seeing around 10,000 new infections each day?

Any theories? Apart from not social distancing.


DaveW
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Scruffy Oik
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Originally Posted by DaveW
Why are we still seeing around 10,000 new infections each day?

Any theories? Apart from not social distancing.


As far as I can see it's exactly down to lack of adherence to the mask/wash/distance protocol. They've pretty much established now that the prime cause of transmission is respiratory droplets & aerosols, so if it's the first then people aren't wearing masks and if it's the second they are too close in unventilated enclosed spaces.

https://www.who.int/news-room/q-a-detail/coronavirus-disease-covid-19-how-is-it-transmitted


Tim H.
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Originally Posted by DaveW
Why are we still seeing around 10,000 new infections each day?

Any theories? Apart from not social distancing.


Because the PCR test is flawed, it reports many, many false positives...possibly 50%
This is worth listening to
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5fznDgRHInM

You can also read my article in Spectroscopy Europe.
https://www.spectroscopyeurope.com/quality/new-quality-challenge

Bottom line:to make a proper diagnosis the clinician has to look at the PCR test, a lateral flow test and clinical symptoms.


Peter,
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Scruffy Oik
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Originally Posted by Peter J

Because the PCR test is flawed, it reports many, many false positives...possibly 50%


Wow, that's a heck of a difference from the ONS Data

Originally Posted by ONS

the data suggest that the false-positive rate is very low, under 0.005%. We do not know the sensitivity (true positive rate) of the swab test. However, other studies suggest that sensitivity may be somewhere between 85% and 98%.


https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopula...ary2021#test-sensitivity-and-specificity

On what dataset are you basing your 50% false positive estimate? Your article is a very thorough rundown of the many possible weaknesses of the testing approach but doesn't appear to have any analysis of actual test results to demonstrate that your concerns are actually valid in real-world conditions.



Tim H.
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Originally Posted by Hamwich
Originally Posted by John V6
And don't underestimate the probability that death by COVID also includes hidden flu victims.


Blimey that would be unlucky, wouldn't it? Catch both flu and Covid, both of which turn out to be fatal. I certainly wouldn't bet on any deathbed racing tips from that person. smile




Most compromised people die from several infections. Bel Mooney the reporter pointed out her Dad Ted died of CPD & had had 3 COVID tests all negative but the GP in the home put the cause down as COVID as others in the home died of it. I imagine there are similar cases out there where flu contributes.


JohnV6
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Originally Posted by Hamwich


Completely agree. This government is either collectively as thick as mince or thinks that we are.

"We are going to be driven by data not dates"

"Schedule of coming out of lockdown is Date1 Date2 Date 3 Date4"

Do they really not understand that these two statements are completely contradictory? Or do they really think we won't notice?



That interpretation is not even close to what the government has said

"Johnson will underline that each stage is subject to four tests – the successful continued deployment of the vaccine programme, continued evidence that vaccines are reducing hospitalisations and deaths, low infection rates which do not risk a surge in hospitalisations, and that the programme is not threatened by a new Covid variant."


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Originally Posted by Rovert

That interpretation is not even close to what the government has said

"Johnson will underline that each stage is subject to four tests – the successful continued deployment of the vaccine programme, continued evidence that vaccines are reducing hospitalisations and deaths, low infection rates which do not risk a surge in hospitalisations, and that the programme is not threatened by a new Covid variant."




So why are the dates there then? A data-driven approach is When (Condition A is met) Then (Action B is taken). The conditions referred to are subjective assessments, not data points.


Tim H.
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Originally Posted by Hamwich
[
When (Condition A is met) Then (Action B is taken). The conditions referred to are subjective assessments, not data points.


If (Condition A is met) Then (Action B is taken).

Personally I think it is 17 Angels that can dance on the head of a pin


Brian

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Scruffy Oik
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Originally Posted by Rovert
Originally Posted by Hamwich
[
When (Condition A is met) Then (Action B is taken). The conditions referred to are subjective assessments, not data points.


If (Condition A is met) Then (Action B is taken).

Personally I think it is 17 Angels that can dance on the head of a pin


What would be wrong with an approach that said something like:

Condition 1:
When (National case incidence < 20/100,000)
And (R rate less than .4)
And (50% population have had 2nd Vacc)
And (70% population have had 1st Vacc)
Then
(Exit Lockdown)

Condition 2:
When (R rate exceeds .7 for any 5-day period)
Then
(Return to Lockdown)

Or

"The sooner you lot get yourselves vaccinated and behave yourselves with the hygiene protocols, the sooner we can come out of lockdown, and if you get complacent we'll go straight back in."


Tim H.
1986 4/4 VVTi Sport, 2002 LR Defender, 2022 Mini Cooper SE
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