Talk Morgan Forums Community The Malvern Arms Vaccination update

Blimey that would be unlucky, wouldn't it? Catch both flu and Covid, both of which turn out to be fatal. I certainly wouldn't bet on any deathbed racing tips from that person.

Why are we still seeing around 10,000 new infections each day?

Any theories? Apart from not social distancing.

As far as I can see it's exactly down to lack of adherence to the mask/wash/distance protocol. They've pretty much established now that the prime cause of transmission is respiratory droplets & aerosols, so if it's the first then people aren't wearing masks and if it's the second they are too close in unventilated enclosed spaces.

https://www.who.int/news-room/q-a-detail/coronavirus-disease-covid-19-how-is-it-transmitted

Because the PCR test is flawed, it reports many, many false positives...possibly 50%
This is worth listening to
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5fznDgRHInM

You can also read my article in Spectroscopy Europe.
https://www.spectroscopyeurope.com/quality/new-quality-challenge

Bottom line:to make a proper diagnosis the clinician has to look at the PCR test, a lateral flow test and clinical symptoms.

Wow, that's a heck of a difference from the ONS Data



https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopula...ary2021#test-sensitivity-and-specificity

On what dataset are you basing your 50% false positive estimate? Your article is a very thorough rundown of the many possible weaknesses of the testing approach but doesn't appear to have any analysis of actual test results to demonstrate that your concerns are actually valid in real-world conditions.

Most compromised people die from several infections. Bel Mooney the reporter pointed out her Dad Ted died of CPD & had had 3 COVID tests all negative but the GP in the home put the cause down as COVID as others in the home died of it. I imagine there are similar cases out there where flu contributes.

That interpretation is not even close to what the government has said

"Johnson will underline that each stage is subject to four tests – the successful continued deployment of the vaccine programme, continued evidence that vaccines are reducing hospitalisations and deaths, low infection rates which do not risk a surge in hospitalisations, and that the programme is not threatened by a new Covid variant."

So why are the dates there then? A data-driven approach is When (Condition A is met) Then (Action B is taken). The conditions referred to are subjective assessments, not data points.

If (Condition A is met) Then (Action B is taken).

Personally I think it is 17 Angels that can dance on the head of a pin

What would be wrong with an approach that said something like:

Condition 1:
When (National case incidence < 20/100,000)
And (R rate less than .4)
And (50% population have had 2nd Vacc)
And (70% population have had 1st Vacc)
Then
(Exit Lockdown)

Condition 2:
When (R rate exceeds .7 for any 5-day period)
Then
(Return to Lockdown)

Or

"The sooner you lot get yourselves vaccinated and behave yourselves with the hygiene protocols, the sooner we can come out of lockdown, and if you get complacent we'll go straight back in."