Talk Morgan Forums Community Vehicle Talk (non-Morgan) Hydrogen vehicles

Tesla guarantee their EV batteries for 8 years and re-cycle batteries into their domestic "Power Walls".
There are enough early Tesla Model S vehicles in North America with 200+k miles and 10 years use with batteries that don't yet meet the Tesma definition of "not fit for use" to suggest battery life will be no more of an issue than ICE Engine life.
I don't think EV depreciation will differ from ICE car depreciation.

Watching Jonny Smith on the Late Brake Show and he was opining that one reason that used EV values are holding up so well is that batteries are lasting far longer than anyone predicted. AIUI the end of life criteria for EV batteries is around 75-80% of original capacity. and even then there's plenty of life left in them for grid storage uses.

My LG wall battery is guaranteed to still have 90% capacity after 15 years, and it's basically the same tech as EVs, so I reckon it's going to be entirely feasible to see EVs running around for 20-25 years or more. If our Mini drops to even 50% after 15 years it will still have a range of 50 to 70 miles which would be more than enough for me to tootle into town for the groceries.

There's also the huge demand at the moment, of course, but even in future years once initial demand has died down one can expect the value of used EVs to outstrip ICE vehicles, not only from the longevity and cost of ownership, but also from the spiralling cost and lack of availability of petrol and diesel.

Whilst we talk about the future impact on ICE due to fuel cost and availability, we will also find that the maintenance and spares infrastructure will also start to diminish/disappear as the traditional heavier maintenance requires of ICE with lower future volumes will see servicing requirements demand etc fall and with it the support structure. May not be petrol that kills it off but the lack of spares and skilled people to fit them.........

Agreed.
A bit like Steam Engines...

Good point - although paradoxically this will work in favour of older, simpler, 'classic' vehicles as there are already supplier networks for older stuff and it's easier to get stuff remanufactured. In 10 years time it'll probably be easier to get carb parts for a 1980 Land Rover than injection system components for a 2010 Discovery.

If anyone in this topic is alive in 2070 to see what happened then I'll buy you a beer (if that's allowed oh and I'm here to buy you a beer, if I am at 110 then medical procedures will have advanced somewhat!)

Devil's advocate makes me think the worst things that can impact current generation BEV values would be....

1. New generation batteries cause a step change in pricing/range and existing tech suddenly looks a bit lame.
2. A significant number of the cars suffer fires or troubles that really impact confidence.
3. Charging infrastructure does not get itself sorted (this one seems far less real but remains a risk)

I would guess if someone can get a solid state battery to market, it will create a step change in range and minimise the fire risk which may impact current BEV values.

Almost unbelievable?



https://plasmakinetics.com

Yes pretty amazing. There is hope.