Talk Morgan Forums Community The Malvern Arms EU ICE Exemption!

We're going to have an abundance of petrol stations around for at least another 20 or 30 years after this change, and the fuel will absolutely be available - but i'm also concerned about the engine situation.
We can only hope to rely on the benevolence of manufacturers like BMW who will still be making enough ICE engines for their PHEVs that the small manufacturers can nab a few, but that's only until 2035.
Who is going to build new ICE engines after 2035?

I worked at Donny power box as a Technician Officer with BR for about three years and lived in Armthorpe.

Well, we're down to just over 8,000 now, the numbers have dropped by over 50% in the last 20 years. More and more people are switching to EVs, (13% increase/year and > 680k BEVs on the road now) and I can't see that having any other than a depressing affect on demand for petrol over the 10 year+ horizon?

I'll start to be concerned when Supermarkets start closing petrol stations.
In Salisbury Shell has just re-developed one of the major petrol stations on the A36. A complete demolish and rebuild: it will host a small Waitrose, petrol and diesel and LPG pumps. BUT NO EV CHARGERS.
Why? The DNO cannot connect it to sufficient power for even 1 fast charger.

In 2020 there were 32.7 million passenger cars on UK roads. 0.68 million EVs are not significant. When there are 6 million EVs I'll take notice.

Yup, I'll begin to take it seriously if and when the Government bans the burning of all solid fuels especially the ubiquitous yuppie must have log burner further reading.

The automobile is a miniscule proportion of this damage, just easy to enforce so it's lazy governing.

"We can only hope to rely on the benevolence of manufacturers like BMW who will still be making enough ICE engines for their PHEVs that the small manufacturers can nab a few, but that's only until 2035.
Who is going to build new ICE engines after 2035?"

Well if the current buying patterns continue it's going to end up like Cuba. Sea's of giant SUV's powered by 1.0L 3cyl PHEV engines clattering along at max chat. That could almost convince me to adopt a duracel daily. Almost.

But PHEV's will no longer be made after 2035 either - that's what i mean, if no one is making internal combustion engines then where are the low volume manufacturers going to source their powerplants?

The fundamental manufacturing change/move from ICE is already happening, most new car adverts are for EV's, there are very few plugging their ICE and 2035 is only 12 years away. Manufacturers will have to start to recoup their massive ongoing investment especially as the move away from adapting ICE chassis(to EV use) to full dedicated EV chassis becomes the norm. Spares for the more recent clean ICE engines will become an issue once they fall outside the manufacturers spares support period, older less complicated engines without engine management systems will continue to have the independent of manufacturer support and spares system they current have . The closer we move to 2030/5 the second hand values of ICE cars will start to fall, making spares plus availability issues etc and the cost of running them less cost effective and they will be scrapped.

I've read that the Government plans to increase the ethanol content up from E10 to possibly E15 in the not too distant future, the recently developed turbo ICE in my SLC surprisingly cannot handle fuel above E10.

Add in to the mix that the various governments across Europe are going to introduce additional taxation of the fossil fuel companies reducing reducing their ability to generate funds internally to invest in oil exploration and exploitation. Most major banks are now as part of their green strategy not investing in new fossil fuel exploration and you start to have a perfect storm of dwindling oil output from existing fields, with resultant oil price hikes. Action is already being taken thru the courts against the hydrocarbon companies for not cleaning up their act.

At some point, the ICE will be directly competing with the plastics industry (the biggest consumer of oil output) for increasingly scant oil resources. We have absolutely no game plan to ween ourselves off plastics, which touch every element of our lives.

So unless some other fuel like hydrogen takes over and current ICE engines can safely and cheaply be converted to its use, I think there is a combination of events that may quite quickly cause oil prices to soar and be beyond the price point that allows current ICE's to be run by a vast majority of the population, availability made worst by the diminishing number of petrol stations in the coming years. The UK government has already indicated it sees green hydrogen being used in public transport and for heavy transport not for the car.

Not meaning to say you are wrong. Is this not a first world luxury issue? 2035 is Europe and engines are made for other parts of the world? Low volume rules would allow someone to import something and fit it to a broad range of things.

Toyota are still making petrol and diesel for other markets quite happily. North America is making all sorts - https://www.cummins.com/engines/pickup-truck 6.7L diesel? They may need some adjustment to make them suitable for our profit minded local gulags but they will not stop making them?

If we take it from the point of view of protecting the Biosphere I would love to know how efficient 1 mile of an average BEV vs Diesel car is on warming. How much energy gets consumed in delivering the power from source to heat generated+pollution+1 mile of movement for 2 people. The efficiency of the production and distribution chain.

I understand why we need to change but someone needs to hold these fools accountable for the cart before horse moment we are facing. If they said it would be based on the availability of solid state batteries, distribution of power points, 800v charging (so time spent on top up was short) and a sensible incentive program I could respect them. Instead we get ready-fire-aim. Nothing to do with forcing additional income on new car replacements given a BEV to ICE match brings a minimum of £10k additional price on which they get VAT, Tax etc? Okay I will admit to being cynical but between soundbytes and the impact this will have on lower income families I feel this needs justification?