Talk Morgan Forums Community The Malvern Arms Has the bubble burst?

People are prepared to pay to see avatars of ABBA on stage ("Abbatars"), so I'm guessing it won't be long before they'll be going to see digital/holographic "Avacars" (which incidentally use absolutely no fossil fuel).....

Well there must be a cost as the guides cannot be free? Without wanting to disclose personal facts it would be interesting to subtract the cost of staffing for the guides per tour. I would imagine it remains very profitable.

The comment about displacing all the experienced people is disturbing.

Its only good news for buyers when the prices stop falling and reverse !

Yes the issue has affected other markets and products. To sell my Ferrari now, I would have to take a 30k bath because instead of just a couple being for sale as there were when I bought there are maybe a dozen now. The watch market is the same - I had been idly watching Rolex prices and the way that buyers who managed to get one from a dealer could make a quick few thousand profit on the grey market. That has gone and dealers now have stock for sale in the windows. They are having to get used to selling rather than rationing out to their pals..

The cost of finance is a major issue. As someone who has never bought on tick (?) I was astounded to be told by the dealer that 90% of Ferraris were sold on finance.

It makes a change from seeing Rolex watches on display with ''exhibition only not for sale' , more recently there have been waiting lists for the mass produced Datejusts, by comparison to the more limited production Submariners and the rare steel Daytona. The grey market has lead to massive price hikes as Rolex claws back some of those grey prices by hiking its new watch prices. I remember when we bought our first his and hers matching dial Datejusts in the mid 80's for less than £1k, the same watches would cost about £15k now. Those were the days when you could walk into the AD pick your watch from the available stock and swop out the dial if you didn't like it from a stock of spare dials they kept.

It’s no great loss to see that nonsense coming to an end, buying objects just to show off and make a fast buck is tacky and deters buyers with genuine appreciation for the items.

Howard, interesting stats on average Ferrari funding processes...I am not surprised at all. I typed earlier that when I decided buy back into Porsche as a tin top, I did a bit of research and it seems multiple owners over short periods of time is apparently not at all unusual...? It seems easy money financed the ability of folk to "rent" a particular automotive or other experience for a while...some even hoped for the cost of experience to pay for it`s self. if not generate profit.. The Porsche GT3 market perhaps being a prime example..?

While the petrol head part of me agrees with your thinking Ewan there will be many out there who may also be petrol heads, yet part of their financial planning may have depended upon value retention if not profit related to their "Classic" vehicle...?

Seems to me that as ever evolution has played it`s part, and once disposable income appeared on the scene for average households around the early seventies, and with it increasing interest in what up till that time had been considered as little more than old bangers by the man in the street, to the extent that created the appearance of the classic car press on every news stand, all of which caused old bangers to become thought of as classics and thus increased their imagined and thus real value.. It seems any changes in value will ever attract investors, who will dip in and out of a market as it both rises and falls...?

It seems to me that as ever those like myself who were and are primarily petrol heads, will generally be slow to act or react relative to market values, though unless one is spending pocket change or close to it on a classic, a measure of value retention as opposed to profit, may well play a part of one`s thinking at the time of purchase..? Should that be the case then I suspect any large drop in the value of classics will perhaps create a bit of an issue for some..?

Whilst the profiteering on the grey markets was pretty obnoxious to those people who appreciate and enjoy the brand and its core values. The worst aspect of this increased price/value cycle has been to make Rolex a very high profile brand and attracted the criminal element and subsequently increasing occurrence of quite violent watch thefts/muggings have arisen as a result. Sue used to wear her gold Datejust all the time for decades, I had a vintage gold Submariner, plus a steel Daytona I wore amongst other pieces and they are all gone now, we sold them after a close friend was mugged for his watch in London not far from Selfridges in broad daylight by a gang of 5, not long after we had left him that day. He had been in Selfridges Rolex centre and they tagged and followed him from there. I rarely wear a watch now.

IMHO, there are many reasons for the sad Morgan trad residuals today. Many are specific to Morgans and not generic to classic British cars. Other classic cars continue to skyrocket.

One cannot simply look to the wider slump caused by the latest pandemic and the uncertain economic conditions since. Morgan residuals have been relatively languishing for quite some time... Prior to 15 years ago, they were the best fun cars to buy, new or old. You couldn't help but make a profit which mitigated any buying risk. Reactive, easy to maintain, easy to repair, easy-to-find their inexpensive parts. Despite their rarity and thin (outside of the UK) support network, we all KNEW we couldn't go wrong. And we were reassured that the MMC certainly didn't follow the crowd, unless forced to screaming and kicking by government regs, which are no longer a factor.

One reason for the change, there are many and I only address one in this post and it is not in order of importance, was the change in thrust of the automobile sports car sector. After the great days of the 1960/70s, interest in sports cars waned. It was a specialist drivers market. It was a sport requiring skill to master. After a long lull. (Morgan was largely unaffected) the sector ballooned again when Mazda and then others realized that they could increase the size of the buying sector by designing sports cars/roadsters that were capable of being driven by more people of lesser skills. That became the direction of the entire industry and has continued as technology is used to reduce the labor content in manufacture. Morgans resisted.

Trads are harder to drive than cars, including other current sports cars. To drive them as they should be (as a sport) far more skill is required. So Morgans even less mainstream. So a new vision was adopted by the Factory to compete with the wider market. Retail prices, cars and parts, aggressively spiked to cover the development of other more technologically based models. You see, the new target market compared the other sports cars and they insisted on the same elaborate skill-saving technology found elsewhere. That increased costs and caused teething issues which small production companies cannot afford. Technology and teething issues, (with no economies of scale) is VERY costly rather than being an immense cost saver as it is with larger production companies. Production became outsourced rather than bespoke.

Be proud of yourself if you own a trad and can drive it well. You are different.

l.

P.S. Were you aware that trads are a favorite fun car choice for F1 drivers?

I do see your point and agree with much of it but my observation would be that it does not include a more significant factor in the situation - pool of prospective customers?

If we look at it in the form of people with cash and how they make decisions. It is a living company that needs to move forward and make money in a changing world?

I believe your comments are totally right for the people who love Trads and the traditional MMC? As you outline the driving experience, individuality, honesty of the Trad cannot really be compared to anything available commercially. I was certainly surprised when the CX cars appeared and replaced the Trad as well as the Aero models. I don't think the Aero was a commercial success even if I love mine to bits.

I think the issue is that over the years and especially in recent (10) years the prospective customer pool has changed. Cars have become rotatable every 2-3 years and not something you considered as your second biggest investment. Today, desire in the eyes of the younger customer brings images of eco driven battery cool. Manufacturers have been legislated towards BEV, so they have dumped their marketing budget into making it as cool as they can to win the next wave. Or be whacked by the Chinese, Nio, Geely, BYD, GWM, etc etc

The tacit acceptance of subscription based "ownership" through PCP, monthly rental (Jaguar Pivotal, Volvo Subscription) giving access to better cars for a given budget in a changing world. Our sad disposable approach to life. Want to have a child next year, need to cut that monthly bill?

More importantly the values, interests and fashion driven lifestyles that a younger generation are drawn to through the sochul medier lead them to different decisions. Dare I say it but fashion has replaced quality/culture/taste/select your chosen word. Perhaps best indicated by the recent InIn/MMC advert with cultural influencer Challenge Sophie. Maybe they could have done this 15 years ago but hindsight is a swine and maybe they had higher priorities and limited budgets at that time. A car has definitely become part of the vanity culture that social media drives towards us. All the influencer sponsorship frankly makes my stomach turn and I pity the youth suffering it. Peer pressure is horrible.

The regulatory environment in motoring has also gone from headlamp and bumper height to a frightening level of intrusion on driving. Actually I don't think driving has anything to do with it which is horrible. When I see a hedgehog my natural instinct is not to pick it up as I know this will hurt. The same could be said of not aiming a car at a tree, you should not need to be told it's a dumb move. But is seems we do, along with "cup maybe hot, drink may be hot" on a coffee cup. Natural selection has failed us? Yet most of the things being done to cars now seem to be about removing the drivers involvement, self drive, lane collision avoidance, automatic emergency braking. They are now part of of the mandatory test values that go to a car's design goals. Should I just wear a cotton wool onesie as well. Hang on there is probably a sign for that on the sun visor. I suspect that is also the reason the Trad remains popular among a certain profile on the board, quite rightly.

The challenges in front of Morgan remain significant. Look at the loss of Alpina, a true home of petrolheads. They even had BMW make most of the car for them. Worse, look at the recent release by BMW M, the XM. Sorry I was a little sick in my mouth.

Maybe the customer has become very different. Sir John HJ was not a stupid man.

(I aspire to achieve Luddite level posts)

You really have arrived at George level Alistair