Talk Morgan Forums Morgan Sports Cars Morgan Aero 8, 2012< Plus 8, SuperSports, Coupe & Aeromax Morgan Aeromax For Sale

Absolutely true..but that is only part of it.

Yes..though some models are beginning to build up lead times again..and if it continues I imagine (hope) their residuals will rise concurrently.


You are asking me to speculate further? (A dangerous habit!);)

Only basic principles are easy..everything that flows from them gets progressively more complicated. (wry smile) The tenet above relies on supply and demand. Let's examine these two factors with the above.

Many here have stated that Morgans never get junked. Rather they get repaired or restored (often opulently). Ergo, the MMC is not the largest supplier/stocker of Morgans, owners are by far. We create demand (new and used) and contribute to supply (used).

So what are reasons that residuals would drop if owners have a reluctance to sell? There is a simple answer. Only if the same owners have had an even greater reluctance to buy.

After all, they bought with the expectation they could not lose, yet they have seen falling residuals caused by 3 years of "Specials", "Series" cars, Anniversary Cars" and so many changes. Not a good time to sell.

Yet waiting times are rising again for some models and that is the sign the market for these is recovering. Give it another year or two. (Knock on ash)



Later. Better half has arrived. Wine time.

Lorne

P.S. I would be interested to know more of Simon's and Roderich's selling experiences, though I would completely understand if they chose to keep these things to themselves.

Interesting Lorne - the angle you present is one I would not really have considered. Perhaps the Morgan buying fraternity is swayed by 'Special Editions'. Being someone involved in marketing I've always regarded them with healthy derision!

One other thing, which started in the early 90's and continues to this day which I think is probably also having a pronounced effect - the "MX5 effect".

The 90's saw the MX-5 rise triumphant, the MGF become the best selling (I bought one!) roadster in the UK. Toyota, BMW and Mercedes all followed suit with more roadsters. Each is easier to own than a Morgan, more practical and is still fighting for a slice of the same market at the margins of morgan ownership. {There will always be those infatuated with Malvern spirit who want a Morgan becuase its a Morgan and I'm not for a minute suggesting they would defect of course!}

I guess what I'm getting at is back in the 80's, you could buy a caterham, or a TVR, porsche cabrio, ferrari mondial, or a Morgan plus 4/8 - or perhaps if you were feeling really zany a marcos!

Since the MX5 reinvented the roadster worldwide in the 90's roadsters for all budgets have become far more available, practical and easy alternative to car ownership.

For sure - this means there are probably now far more drop top drivers on the road than ever before. A good thing all round I'm sure we all agree.

On the other hand, it's made justifying that purchase of a Traditional British Morgan roadster, with the attendant foibles of a handmade product, just that bit harder for some of the more fairweather types who one would have stomached those issues as they were generally shared by the opposition.

The true extent of the brilliance of the Morgan company, is that unlike Marcos, TVR and many other low volume manufacturers who have gone to the wall since the birth of the mass produced sports car rennaissance, Morgan still has a healthy order book and a strong fan base and is looking forward to the future.

Perhaps it's just me, but I think this has been a pretty profound change in the cars we drive (particualrly in the UK) in the last 20 years, and this must have some impact.

Anyway I'm off for a :drink: cheers!

Tony, your take on "special editions" mirrors my own. They do not help in the medium or long run and sadly effect marque reputation. That being said, the LeMans and Plus 8 Anniversary cars were absolutely key.


Damn! You stole my punchline. That is what I was referring to by the "90's" thing.

I have never fully bought into the story of the Plus 8 "saving the company" in 1968 (though the car was an astonishing coup at the time). The fact was that the 1950-70's Age of the Roadster was dying, leaving Morgan with truncated roadster competition. They reaped big benefits from that for more than two decades. A moggie Golden Age.

As you say, in the 1990s the MX5 (here it was the Miata) ended all that. By the mid-90's, the MMC waiting list was dropping (not common knowledge) and Aeroman (and many others) had his first loss selling a Morgan. There were two solutions proposed to the Board then.


Can't agree entirely. After all, the MMC did lose its legendary asset base from 2002-2006. The waiting list disappeared a few times as well in that period. However, the fan base IS phenomenal, the order book IS filling again and its baby boomer time! BIG challenges in the near future and the old team is back in place.

Lorne

Lorne,

+ 8 from December 1991 - October 1997: 85,000 DM/63,000 DM (= - 25 %)
+8 from April 1997 - November 2001: 105,000 DM/90,000 DM (= - 14 %)
4/4 from February 2002 - November 2006): 45,000 Euro/33,000 Euro (= - 27 %)

Roderich

Hi Rod,

I was looking for the loss on a relatively new car when sold/exchanged within a year.

The figures are above are interesting though. They were all purchased in the post MX-5 era.

Lorne

Hope I'm not going off topic here...interesting views regarding residuals, but why make it sound so complicated, it really is a simple case of supply and demand, hence a question I've posed a while back.. http://www.talkmorgan.com/ubbthreads.php?ubb=showflat&Number=9241#Post9241

Seriously, people buy Morgan with their hearts, I mean who in the right mind would want to spend over £30k for a trad with absolute no safety features/creature comfort to speak of, most people would rather buy a BMW or Porsche instead, and same with Aero8s,upto £70+....first car that I'll be thinking of would be a Porsche or similar, certainly not an Aero, so why did I buy one then? you might ask...because Morgan had a stand in Geneva Motorshow, and it was the first time I see one in the fresh and i instantly fell in love with it , although residuals was important, but it wasn't really a deciding factor.

What I'm trying to say was the more Morgan products being expose to the world/Media/magazines the better, I myself being a good example here,if Morgan didn't have a stand at the show,I would never ever have bought a Morgan.....

If Morgan advertise their cars at every major motoring publications, I'm pretty sure there'll be some new converts into the Morgan communitiy
I know this sounded all very simple, but i really think it is just that! SIMPLE!

my 2 cents, please excuse my grammar, spelling W.H.Y.

When I decided for my first +8 I decided against a Jaguar XK 120 not against a Porsche or BMW. I wanted a traditional but more reliable car than a real old one.

Roderich

This is one of the reasons I bought the Aero 8.

It IS simple and people DO buy Morgans with their hearts. You simply need to have those hearts remain unbroken.

Peter Morgan, either by astounding intelligence or the instincts that come with experience, realized that the company had four great shortcomings.

1. The cars are more hand-made than most and that unavoidably leads to more faults than most. (a new owner turn-off)

2. The company did not have the resources for extensive R&D or plant improvement and technology. It was a big strain simply to keep the cars regulatorily compliant.

3. The dealership (aka support) network is extremely thin.

4. The cars are less performant and more costly than the competition.

HOWEVER, Peter also realized that his buyers (and their SWMBOs) were prepared to forgive all these failings if the residuals showed they couldn't lose. (The logic behind the love.) He kept production limited (dictated by each model's waiting list) and carefully meted the result out to the dealers ensuring as many as possible could survive. Outside of demos, he never laid down a frame without a signed order from a verified buyer in hand.

The old Works never changed and nothing was invested in it. Yet it became a famous tourist attraction because of that and a big selling point. Owners would even wax nostalgic about their "sorting" problems!

He further limited Morgan supply and upped demand by encouraging a vibrant community at every opportunity he could. So when you buy a Morgan you are buying into a social life. It is much harder to switch to another marque when you are leaving your social life behind you. You keep your Morgan or buy another.

So when the waiting list started to shrink in the 90s (with the competition from the new wave of roadsters, Peter Morgan's proposed solution was to hold the line on production and costs, and weather it out again. Of course, this time he was outvoted by the other shareholders and the Harvey-Jones route was chosen instead.

However, the lessons Peter learned and taught are just as pertinent today. Apply them (albeit theoretically) and see.

Lorne

Kin

I agree with you, I also think that it really is a simple case of supply and demand. The supply is regulated by MMC, and the demand depends on the perception of the marque by the public. Most major manufacturers spend vast amounts of money trying to influence that perception, and when I owned a dealership selling cars from a major manufacturer, we had all sorts of programmes to try and improve the brand perception and increase residuals (some of which were even successful ), but Morgan do not have the budget for that kind of thing so it is down to the current owners to do the job for them and try and spread the news .