Talk Morgan Forums Community The Malvern Arms Coronavirus / Corona Virus

Being a boring engineer by training, I am naturally dragged to the numbers.

In the UK, on average 1500 people die from all causes every day and over the last couple of weeks one or 2 of those per day have been as a result of coronavirus being present, but very often with other underlying conditions.

My knuckles are looking like a bare knuckle fighter from washing them and we are trying to be sensible with our behaviour, but every day when they announce that another death has occurred with coronavirus being one of the contributory factors, I am trying to also think about the other 1499 people who have also died that day to maintain a degree of perspective.

It isn't clear to me if the total mortality rate of 1500 per day will increase substantially in the UK as a result of coronavirus or does it shift the cause of death, such that more of the 1500 per day will be attributed to corona virus without a substantial increase in the overall mortality rates ?

Relax unless you are in the USA - entitled "fresh supplies" !

I am staying away from the golf club. I play in the Seniors section twice a week. At 66 I am one of the youngest so they are a vulnerable group with a few in mid 80’s. We have a couple of golf day events soon but no decisions on going ahead yet.
I don’t have Corvid symptoms but do have a sinus flare up that causes a sore throat and cough, no elevated temperature. Definitely not the Corvid symptoms.
Monty is being taken for longer walks than usual in wide open spaces. Thursday we did about 5 miles in Pembrey Forest and very few people seen.
is a retired nurse so some sensible guidance and checks.
As for any other shut downs it is wait and see. We help with the grandchildren on school runs so school closure would extend that depending on the work situation with jnr and SIL. Land Registry and Council Planning/Development.
I also look at the figures and treat them with care. I got annoyed yesterday when the Welsh Health Minister quoted 20,000 deaths in Wales as a worst case scenario. Classic clickbait type comments that many will dwell on. OK...worst case scenario but too many people will home in on that figure and not see the bigger picture or understand the wider stats.

You make a very good point

I wonder if the news reported how many elderly die from complications resulting from seasonal flu every day, how it would change our perspective

One of the father’s best friends in his early 80’s died of flu 4 winters ago. Fit and healthy for his age one day then dies two weeks later after contracting flu

Just added to my post above re stats.
The effect on vulnerable groups should be a huge part in the way the Pandemic is dealt with. I think strong restrictions, monitoring, resource allocation to the vulnerable should be the main core of action applied to these groups. The majority of us just need basic, sensible precautions.
A possible watchpoint is the long term development of the virus itself re mutation, future health issues , recurrence of spread etc.. these we don’t know yet so will the “herd effect” to build antibodies work? Based on historic disease info it is likely to go that way.

The four stage strategy

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nSXIetP5iak

To whom it may concern ! The WHO Sit Rep 53 53

The UK Gov updated me to a case in Antigua.. If we are banned from travel to there or they ban UK citizens then the hotel will allow us to delay the holiday by 6 months.

That's good John, without the constraints of work you are a free agent to pick YOUR time

But Peter, unless you quarantine the whole world until you are 100% certain that no more cases exist then you run the risk that all those who have been locked away to avoid the virus will not have built up any immunity and will therefore be vulnerable again to any hitherto undetected "healthy" carriers and the whole thing starts up again.

This virus has to take it's course and the hope is that the UK can elongate the time span so that the health service will have a better chance of treating those who are vulnerable and do get very ill and thus reduce the mortality rate.

I guess it's just a case of whether we chose to believe the Italian Scientists or the British Scientists.

These are uncharted waters and we will just have to see who gets it right.

As a slight aside, sometimes it is a good idea to adopt different strategies to solve a problem. When you see which one worked best, you can use that accumulated knowledge next time.