Talk Morgan Forums Community The Malvern Arms Measures to control virus a step too far ?

The effect on the Country of these extreme measures now and potentially for how many weeks , is it going to be 2 months , and the effect on individual finances and social effects of laying of millions of people looks like being very difficult to recover from . How many people would actually die if they got the virus ? Don't we all need to get it anyway to become imune ? Methods of avoidence seem to be worse than the virus itself .

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/im...AJJXBKedIP86_2KT6qGWB7d-mg7_wqvkfRTgCc_I

My (admittedly non expert) view is either

a. you do nothing and allow most of the population to be infected, at which point transmission falls to a low value - but that would mean many hundreds of thousands would die, in bad circumstances, since at best we have 10000 beds approx. to support the very ill. A vaccine might arrive in 9 -12 months (that's just a guess), but it will be too late.

b. you isolate as many people as possible and slow the transmission as much as possible, and hold the number of infected people at a sufficiently low number so that less than 10000 need hospitalisation at any one time (some for many weeks). My guess is that you don't want more than 100000 people infected at any one time in any 2 week period. So that means isolation for many months even so many hundreds of people will die a week. Eventually a vaccine will be available and can be used to end the isolation.

The government/NHS have the extraordinary difficult job of finding a way of reducing transmission, without bringing the country to its knees. Every decision made will potentially save lives or end them.

No.
And it will be longer than two months.
Speaking as someone who retired in Dec on the basis my Super was big enough, it’s now being savaged. But I would rather stay alive.
How many would die if everyone got it ? Assuming a Uk population of 64m then best case 1.2m worst case 3.84m
Ie quite a few

The issue isn't whether individuals will get the virus or not, 80% probably will at some point. The issue is the capacity of the health service to deal with the numbers involved and the knock on effect of this. The predictions are that the number of critical cases requiring intensive care, if nothing is done, will completely outstrip the capacity of hospitals to deal with it )provide beds, staff etc.). On top of that, healthcare and other key workers will become infected, taking them out of the system and lowering its capacity even more. The scenario of bodies piled up and people dying in their thousands with healthcare staff having to take impossible decisions on who to save, is not one that any government, or society, can reasonably accept.

The current measures are drastic but necessary - remember, it's not about the individual in this case, it is about protecting society. There are measures the government can take to mitigate the damage and from what I can see, apart from the buffoon of a Prime Minister who has been caught out for the incompetent chancer he is, they are doing well given the circumstances and the bumbling vacillating leadership of their PM.

I guess we don't know Steve. Time will tell. I think the bigger issue is that the virus will keep coming back so this is not 12 weeks more like 18 months.
Plus the devastation to the 3rd world & resulting migration towards a richer Europe.

Interesting that people in general just don’t get it. (Not on this forum) just been to lidles in Clacton. Me trying to leave a few feet in front of me. Person behind standing as close as they could get. Woman in other cue dry coughing almost continuously and not once did I see her cover her mouth. No wonder ukgov are considering a enforced lock down.

Damned if you do, damned if you dont!

Look at the clamour to close schools, they announce that they are then it's all waily waily over qualifications and child cares vs going to work.

Whatever decision is taken will be met with anger or dispair.

People need to sit down for a bit of introspection as to what is actually important.

Liberty vs life for instance.

It's okay no matter what you do you can always blame the government.

People criticise the gov just giving advice on behaviour at the moment, wait for the outcry when they force pubs etc to close.

Think about the poor sods in essential roles, pressure on those workers to keep things going their fears need addressing and supporting.

Just like the phoney war experienced at the start of WW2, until April 1940 that is! Without nationwide testing we simply don't know the scale of what's happening in the background now, much like then.

Agreed

SOD IT today is the start of spring its sunny outside we should be having a roll in the hay, now now cool down taking the dog for a walk or should I say him taking me for a walk or getting your hands on the thing you love YES THATS IT THE MOG so get out there and enjoy yourself .