Talk Morgan Forums Community The Malvern Arms Coronavirus / Corona Virus

In Lombardia the system was overwhelmed before it could be ramped up to handle the number of cases and tests. In effect, with some exceptions, the only people who were tested were those with severe symptoms and this sowed a mortality rate of over 13%. So from this we basically know that of those hospitalised the mortality rate is around 13% or more.

Other regions have been testing more widely so this has been distorting the figures even internally in Italy. For the last week also Lombardia has been testing anyone who has one or more symptoms, this still leaves all their contacts untested.

There are studies which give a guide to the number of people actually infected (but showing no or only light symptoms) in proportion to those showing severe symptoms. From this mathematicians have been able to extrapolate the number of people actually infected. Ok, in reality it still remains theoretical but is probably not far from the mark. Another group has been gathering the simple statistics of the number of people deceased, whatever the reason, since the beginning of the pandemic and comparing those figures with previous years. The result is a disturbing doubling in the normal mortality rate. If you then compare that with the calculated number of people infected with CoVid-19 they come up with a worrying mortality rate for the virus of 6%.

Since most of us Morgan owners are male and no longer young it also comes out that mortality rate climbs sharply for 65 year olds and on up and even more sharply for men.

Another study seems to indicate that if the virus attaches to a fine particle it can carry for 10 metres or more. This may explain in part the rapid spread of the virus in Lombardia due to the unseasonably dry conditions and high pollution levels at the start of the epidemic.

At least there is more good news in that the new infection rate continues to fall and more people are declared cured. Unfortunately the number of deaths remains fairly constant at the moment.

I only leave the house to take the dog out or, once every couple of days, go to a local shop wearing gloves and a mask.

Take note of the similarity in growth of the figures between the USA and the UK.

Wear masks, wash constantly, and keep your distance from people outside the household, better still, stay at home!

Worldometer numbers don’t seem to stack up. UK has a small number of serious or critical patients with a high death rate - compare to Germany.

Agreed I liked the German date showing doubling time of infection. We desperately need more testing & better KPIs.

As stated previously by Peter J its no good comparing figures between countries , they are all using different methods of extrapolation .

Thankfully, Australia has not made it on the list yet but I think our time will come sadly....

As of this morning (local time) the toll is 28 dead and 5,358 confirmed cases.

For Australia people have had a good deal of advance warning an probably relatively higher temperatures and UV have meant that the virus has not persisted for long in the environment. Most of my friends are taking precautions but the government policy seems to be lagging somewhat. I can't believe that the schools are still open with the risk that children, relatively without symptoms, may carry the virus back to their grandparents who will be the most at risk.

We won't even think about the gross error of letting hundreds of infected passengers off a cruise ship in Sydney before the test results came in.

The problem for Australia is now that the weather is getting cooler and before long the normal flu season will start and therefore the usual seasonal spread of viruses. I worry about my brother who is an ambulance officer and paramedic in northern Sydney.

Take care.

Todays WHO Sit Rep 74 makes very sobering reading for Europe.

Stay safe out there.

The Americans must be very worried. Time wise they are only at the start of the curve and already the numbers are huge.