Talk Morgan Forums Community The Malvern Arms Covid-19

Peter - I do hope that your country is now on the road to normality - So sad to see so many deaths and such hardship - thankfully, here in rural Ireland things have not been anything like as bad as the North of Italy

Gods blessing to you all and stay safe

Cheers!

There seems to be some thinking around Vitamin D being of some use, perhaps more so for those with dark skin..?

https://drmalcolmkendrick.org/2020/04/28/covid-update-focus-on-vitamin-d/#comments

I read with regret that the UK today surpassed the Covid death rate of Italy.

Stay safe!

I think we should be looking more at percentages of the population rather than out right numbers.

Depends what countries put on the death certificate. Here anyone who tests positive and dies is considered to have died of the virus . Every country is assessing reason for death differently so its not looking straightforward to compare deaths with other countries .Also are all countries including care home deaths in their figures as they weren't included by even us till recently and France wasn't . So its a can of worms .

here you are: mortality figures per 100.000



Hoping for you it's fake news only

Death figures for the virus ? Or death figures ? Again its not clear to compare .......

As Hannes says stay safe out there, I learnt today of the death of an active English Morganist with Covid !!

The first I have heard of and I hope the last.

We aren't comparing apples with apples at the moment ..... I'm not sure this will be unravelled for years (if ever) .... maybe once a vaccine (or mutation to harmless or community immunity) comes along .... then excess deaths over an average will give some sort of level playing field set of figures for how different strategies played out holistically .

It may be unfashionable but I have a strong feeling the whole testing thing will prove to be of minor importance ...there will be environmental, cultural and demographic factors that are overwhelmingly more important. It's hard to explain how countries with minimal testing and health facilities have virtually no deaths but others with high levels of testing and world-leading medical systems have tens of thousands .... more going on than we're seeing when it comes to risk factors.

K

The only way to truly understand this is to have access to the mean death figures (for any reason) over a period of years and then compare that the same figures since January this year. It is not unreasonable to think that at least those above the high range for the same period are Covid related. The results will show a much higher rate for every country than the official figures declare. Many researchers believe that there is a large number of elderly people particularly that have passed away at home, in care facilities, and certainly initially in hospitals, that have never been registered as Covid victims.

The UK has a population of 66.65 million (2019) and Italy 60.36 million (2019). So the UK is pretty close to Italy with about 10% more people. The UK has had 29,427 deaths and Italy, as at today 29,315. As far as I can see the registration system is the same for both countries, or at least near enough that a comparison is valid.

If you look at the graphs further down the page the tale is told.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/

In Italy the new infection rate is falling whereas in the UK it has only levelled out. The daily deaths are falling in both countries but more steeply in Italy. We just have to wait and see what the next week will bring. I very much fer that with Phase 2 of the lockdown we may see a the fall in new cases pick up again. We will have to wait 2 to 3 weeks to really understand something.