Talk Morgan Forums Community The Malvern Arms Covid-19

For all the hindsight armchair experts out there, I'd love to know what they'd be saying now if the UK was put into lockdown in January? Or if we'd had more punitive fines to control people here? People and media grumbling about the NHS app moaning about privacy, who'd be happier and more trusting of two private American companies with no feedback to the health system.

No matter what decisions were took, every bod on the street would know better and they'd be the wrong decisions

So the UK government (finally) decides to treat airport travellers as a possible source of infection dispersion. Wow. Talk about stable doors and bolting horses... in Feb that could have made a big difference. Now it will just be a welcome difference.

On testing: there are 2 types. The current NHS staff testing is for current infection. Does not say if you have *had* COVID19 (and therefore at least somewhat resistant to reinfection). The antibody testing is for past infection. Until there is widespread use of both everyone is shooting in the dark in terms of % with / had COVID in the general population...

On lockdown vs economy: its an interesting moral debate. Measuring deaths is for example an emotional metric (ie we all die - just a matter of when). Maybe a better metric would be something like "missed years" x "quality of life". So yes, the death of a care home resident with a 1 year life expectancy cannot be compared to a 45yr old otherwise-healthy mother of 3... not to mention those poor souls being kept alive without dignity and against their wishes costing huge / scarce healthcare resources until their "do not resuscitate" wishes come into play.

Recent information shows that if you are not a white caucasian your risk of death from COVID is 1.5 to 4 times higher than the 80.4% of the UK population that is white.
The reasons for this difference will keep research scientists busy for years, but it is suspected it is a genetic difference that results in body cells being easier for the virus to get inside.

In the USA the white caucasians are only 60% of the population. Assuming that the same genetic factors apply then the USA is going to have a far higher death rate than we have, even adjusted for population size.

Sobering.

Exactly. He has cost this country a fortune over the last 20 years as a result of his, with the benefit of hindsight, laughably excessive predictions. More recently he predicted up to 100,000 dead in Sweden if they didn't follow his advice. They ignored him, their death rate, adjusted for population size, is much the same as in the UK. I wouldn't trust him to organise a Pi**up in a Brewery.

And there is more if you can be bothered to look into the back history of his department and its "professional relationship" with other peer departments. There are, in my view, two issues. One is the rather rudimentary software code used and the logic gates in it, and possibly worse, the monumental ego of the man, linked to his socio-political background: his play girl is reported to be a hard left publicist for Momentum. I doubt she would be enthralled by a hard right capitalist, so we have to assume he is more a Corbynista than a fan of Boris.

If this is a key issue for you, then I assume you would also support the resignation of Boris Johnson, since he flouted the lockdown rules by travelling with his girlfriend to Chequers?

I doubt he had any say in the matter. Likewise the various members of the active Royal Family.
Also, he was acting on medical advice, rather than lust.

I care much less about Ferguson breaking the lockdown than his record of modelling pandemics .. I just don’t understand why he is still held in high regard despite his mediocre track record

Nor do I.

The Spectator article is interesting for being embarassing to the Spectator, not Prof Ferguson. If you have ever dealt with the press, you know they try and sensationalise what ever you have to say. So he when said "up to X million" could die, the dumb ass reporter tries to make this out as a prediction that "X million will die". Duh. Perhaps the reporter should be sacked? I also laughed at the complaint about "13 year old undocumented computer code". I'm impressed - I thought they would use Excel whose code base in parts probably dates back to the 1980s!

Meanwhile I also agree with the Prof in that IF you have COVID-19 antibodies THEN you are unlikely to be a risk / at risk regardless of "lockdown" or not. The real reason for lockdown is that the general population doesnt know / has not been tested, and cannot be trusted to act accordingly...