Talk Morgan Forums Community The Malvern Arms Petrol and diesel car ban 2030

Excellent terminus names!

I used to ride the Belfast ones. Unfortunately all gone by 1969.

Final Stop in Swedish is Slutstopp.

Some of you may have seen this article in the Times:

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/...ener-than-fossil-fuel-vehicles-8hb5m0dm7

In which it is claimed that a study has shown that the break even point for EVs is 50K miles before they are greener than ICE. The 'study' copies a study of ONE car and generalizes this to ALL electric vehicles by boldly claiming it takes 78k km (48k miles) before an electric vehicle emits less CO2.

But there are some people who have been doing a bit of digging on the 'facts' presented in this study, to reveal the following:

1. There were no 'researchers' involved in this 'study' and there are no original 'recorded results'. Some lobbyists and a PR firm have produced a brochure for their list of sponsors: a who's who of anti-EV organisations.

2. The report underestimates combustion engine emissions ~50% by substituting reality with laboratory tests and forgetting fuel production. Even the new (WLTP) test is still ~20% lower than reality. And then you have to account for fuel production which adds ~25-30% to combustion engine emissions. So it's not 137.7 g/km average but ~138*1.2*1.25=~207 g/km.

3.The study compares a Polestar electric vehicle with a combustion car from parent company Volvo. But the WLTP emissions from the Volvo XC40 are estimated at 195 g/km when reality is 295 km: 45% more using the EPA rating for the Volvo XC40.

4. Producing the battery of the electric vehicle emits 7 tonnes of CO2 (95 kg CO2/kWh battery) which is normal for a battery currently manufactured in China. But that building the rest of the electric car emits 3 tonnes more is not normal because it's drivetrain is much lighter. Although the Polestar and the XC40 use the same chassis they used the emissions of the factory in Belgium for the XC40 and China for the Polestar.

5. This is an LCA so you must calculate all emissions OVER THE LIFETIME of the vehicle. That also means taking the electricity mix over the lifetime.
(The brochure uses the same approach for biofuels.) Average UK mix over the lifetime is ~100 g/kWh.

Put all this together and we find that the true break even point of this particular car type is actually 25K Km, not 78K. In other words a couple of years of real-world usage.

Caveat Lecter and all that...

Great rebuttal. If I recall there was some (Dutch? Belgian?) prof who did a similar study ... and made similar mistakes, but at least published a revised version.

PS: for point 4 the Chinese believe the extra CO2 for an EV car manufacture (incl battery) is only ~4.5t! https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1876610217309049

Auke Hoekstra of the Technical University of Eindhoven is the chap who did the rebuttal I was referring to.

https://neonresearch.nl

Article in the Guardian about a couple in their Porsche Taycan.
They set off on a 260 mile return trip to Bournemouth from their home in Kent.
Due to issues of finding a fast charging point (broken or occupied); their return journey took 9 hours!

Bud
4/4 - Stanley

They needed a portable petrol generator in the boot.

This would work....

Near to my home in East Devon is a large farm shop, Darts Farm.
It has 4 Tesla charging points. However it is also just 2 or 3 miles from Exeter Services, on the M5.
Most days, there is a near constant queue of Tesla cars waiting to recharge.
I imagine they have been directed there, having found no chargers free at the Services.
Very few show local registration plates.

Bud
4/4 - Stanley