Some of you may have seen this article in the Times:
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/...ener-than-fossil-fuel-vehicles-8hb5m0dm7In which it is claimed that a study has shown that the break even point for EVs is 50K miles before they are greener than ICE. The 'study' copies a study of ONE car and generalizes this to ALL electric vehicles by boldly claiming it takes 78k km (48k miles) before an electric vehicle emits less CO2.
But there are some people who have been doing a bit of digging on the 'facts' presented in this study, to reveal the following:
1. There were no 'researchers' involved in this 'study' and there are no original 'recorded results'. Some lobbyists and a PR firm have produced a brochure for their list of sponsors: a who's who of anti-EV organisations.
2. The report underestimates combustion engine emissions ~50% by substituting reality with laboratory tests and forgetting fuel production. Even the new (WLTP) test is still ~20% lower than reality. And then you have to account for fuel production which adds ~25-30% to combustion engine emissions. So it's not 137.7 g/km average but ~138*1.2*1.25=~207 g/km.
3.The study compares a Polestar electric vehicle with a combustion car from parent company Volvo. But the WLTP emissions from the Volvo XC40 are estimated at 195 g/km when reality is 295 km: 45% more using the EPA rating for the Volvo XC40.
4. Producing the battery of the electric vehicle emits 7 tonnes of CO2 (95 kg CO2/kWh battery) which is normal for a battery currently manufactured in China. But that building the rest of the electric car emits 3 tonnes more is not normal because it's drivetrain is much lighter. Although the Polestar and the XC40 use the same chassis they used the emissions of the factory in Belgium for the XC40 and China for the Polestar.
5. This is an LCA so you must calculate all emissions OVER THE LIFETIME of the vehicle. That also means taking the electricity mix over the lifetime.
(The brochure uses the same approach for biofuels.) Average UK mix over the lifetime is ~100 g/kWh.
Put all this together and we find that the true break even point of this particular car type is actually 25K Km, not 78K. In other words a couple of years of real-world usage.
Caveat Lecter and all that...
