Talk Morgan Forums Community The Malvern Arms Russia

We had Nazi propaganda from 1933 to 1939 (and until 1945), so 6 years until the war many people were unfortenutaly brainwashed. Russians have been listening to Putin's demagogy for 23 years now which is an unimaginably long time, or 1.5 generations. One does not know what momentum Russia has taken, but the fascist state will not end with Putin's death. It could get worse, although that is an inconceivable prognosis given all the criminal atrocities under his name that are contrary to human rights. There is no energetic and organized opposition. Critics are 99% runaways and 1% in Russian prison camps.

That is in no way to say that I don't want to go against Putin. I can puke when I see how Scholz and the German SPD squirm and hesitate to finally deliver effective weapons. I personally believe that the SPD is chewed by the Russians, with the long arm of ex-Chancellor Schröder, Putin's crony. Many EU and NATO countries would rather give their Leopard tanks to Ukraine sooner than later, but they are not allowed to do so because it is a German weapon. If I continue to get upset, this thread actually belongs in the soap box...

No it doesn't Heinz.

Our opinions, and that of millions of others in democratic nations, need to be out in the open.
The only weapon that ordinary people have is our opinion, and ultimately our vote. Public opinion and self interest are the only things which can influence most politicians to do the right thing.
Just my humble opinion

You are actually very right, Peter. I wanted to be careful, but maybe now is not the right time.
To stay on topic, why do you think the Ukrainian Ambassador to Germany Melnyk had to go. He was not diplomatic in the best sense but openly clear and plain, as is fitting when you are a country to be wiped out by an evil aggressor. Perhaps he knew too much about the German government and its venality or blackmail by the Russians. Sorry it's just my guesses and it's my common sense. I may be wrong. If the wax soft Macron now even delivers little old tanks, If Biden probably would have delivered Abrahams long ago (if the technology was not so different) then I can hope that Scholz comes under enormous pressure to finally help. In Germany, many people think like me, but there are also some who still live under the cuddly blanket where Germany had settled in pacifism. Only...this cuddle time was perhaps in the past an understandable reaction to deal with the guilt of the Nazi era, but we make ourselves guilty again if we do not show now a clear edge. I didn't want to hijack the thread but just to contribute how I see our role as Germans. To get back to the core of the thread, we (all) have to deal with it and develop strategies how to deal with Russia...with or without Putin. We also have to keep in mind what alliances the Russians can forge with Iran. How China will behave in the end is also far from clear. Perhaps it will be uncomfortable for the West, even if China may be less psychotic than Russia. Putin said two weeks ago that he feels closer to Islam than to (western) Christianity. That is the only comment from him that I believe.

Heinz,

Unfortunately this may become a stalemate, an unwinnable war going on for decades, in which Ukrainian territory may pass between the two sides with no outright victory the Ukrainians seek, especially if they want understandably the Crimea back.

I think European resolve will falter over time and a new form of moving cold war with bouts of military activity will be come the new norm protect the status quo, across Europe. More worrying will be the signals the Chinese take from the West resolve to protect the status quo and whether the intentions in India, Taiwan , the Coral Sea become intensified.

On the surface of it Melnyk had to go because he visited the grave of Stepan Bandera, a rather controversial figure of Ukrainian nationalism before and during the Second World War. This was not viewed in a good light by the German government.
The Ukrainian history in the last few hundred years is a complex story of domination by the Russian Empire and Poland, followed by the Soviet Union. Bandera did side with the Nazis in an effort to gain Ukrainian independence and was also anti-polish (understandably) and anti-semitic but there is no evidence that he approved of, or even was aware of, the massacres that took place in Ukraine at that time. In fact he was in a German concentration camp at the time. He has been demonised, largely by Russian propaganda, as a Nazi but honoured by most Ukrainians as a fighter for independence. In the South and Southeast of Ukraine, which has a greater population of Russian speakers, Bandera is more likely to be viewed as a Nazi. For the Russians, and Putin's propaganda machine, Ukrainian nationalism is associated with Bandera, and therefore Nazism. Given the whipped up racist anti-ukranian sentiments in Russia and desire for domination and annihilation it is easy to see where the Nazi label belongs.
Worth noting that Bandera was one of so many anti-soviets assassinated by the KGB, in his case by a cyanide spray. The means used now are even more deadly and dangerous but the practice continues. (I wonder just how many anti-Putin, or "inconvenient", people have been assassinated since Putin came to power.)
It is worth reading https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stepan_Bandera

My take on this is that the USA will happily donate all the weapons and materiel the Ukrainians need to kick the Russians out and re-establish Ukraine as a sovereign territory on the 1991 borders.

Why?

1. It's a perfect testing ground for their military equipment, allowing them to get rid of loads of old stock/2nd tier equipment. This enables the military industrial complex to continue to justify their trillions of dollars of government spending, creates a demand for new first-tier kit, and supports loads of domestic industries and jobs.

2. It's going to put Russia out of the threat league for decades. When Putin goes either through illness or defenestration, Russia will break up into loads of factions and internecine conflict and the US wants to ensure there's as little decent military equipment as possible available to them. As the economy further collapses and whatever money is left is stolen by the kleptocrats, there won't be anything left to maintain the nuclear weapons and they will quickly become unusable. That's a huge threat off the table.

3. At a time when China is eyeing up its chances over Taiwan, it's a perfect practical demonstration of what US military muscle can achieve even when using second-tier equipment and non-American armed forces. Taiwan is vastly more important to the US strategically than eastern Europe, so it's a very powerful message to China "If we're prepared to do this to protect Ukraine, just imagine what we'll do to protect Taiwan"

And all this at no cost to American lives and remarkably little in budgetary terms. They have sent the equivalent of about $50bn in aid in 2022, or 6% of their 2023 military budget of £782Bn. In terms of what they will gain from Russia's defeat, it's a complete bargain.

As for how long this will take? It might drag on for another year, but when the end comes it will come very quickly. It's in America's interest for this to end decisively and enable them to focus on the Chinese threat.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Suspicious_deaths_of_elites_during_the_Russian_invasion_of_Ukraine_2022%E2%80%932023

Peter and Tim, as completely different as the contents of your last posts are, I agree with both posts. Peter, yes, the Bandera story is complex and it was certainly very unfortunate of Melnyk to talk about it, even if Melnyk does not see Bandera only negatively, it is much too hot iron. Whether there were, as I wrote, other reasons why he had to go is only my guess.
Tim, I also see the role of the Americans as you do (and for this whole far-sighted strategy you need more brains than Trump ever had to comb his hair). Let's put it this way, the Americans have their own interests but that is not to the detriment of extensive military aid to Ukraine.
John, yes I'm afraid too, it might take longer, but maybe the Russian military will be worn out faster than we could have imagined. However, in the event that it does become longer and more grueling, it will be more difficult to convince our public not to "gift" Putin the status quo by jumping the gun.

As a former Military Strategist operating in Eastern Europe particularly Russia during the Cold War I have my opinions (probably not accurate) on the current conflict and the various scenarios that could play out. However, the current play is way too fluid with very complex political, military and social moves for all players involved for any of us to project a long term outcome. I see far too many armchair Generals/Experts selling their wares on nightly news channels or on Social Media getting their 15 minutes of fame. Some of them are interesting to listen too and not wrong in their assessment but focused in a fairly narrow field of view of their expertise. I have listened to some Harvard professors and political experts who talk a good talk and clearly have very eloquently presented opinions, but how their stories have changed over the last 9 months, which is why the intelligence services don't listen to them. I have never understood why Germany sold their soul to the Devil and didn't expect a Faustus scenario in the future. I will say that the Russian people have never forgiven the West at the end of WWII and even the younger generations resent the West's view that without America the war would have been lost with no mention of the sacrifice of Russia and how they defeated Germany. As I say it is very complex.

It will be interesting to see how far and how fast the new 'impetus' to resolve the Wests potential exposed supply chains to energy and conflicts brought front and centre stage by Covid and now the Ukraine conflict and how quickly key commodities now under Chinese control can be sourced elsewhere. The recent US inflation legislation is having the potential to penalise European manufacturing thru increased tariffs etc., that may for a time weaken Europe whilst it introduces its own strand of protectionism, effectively reducing the amount/level of globalisation of supply lines that benefits China's exports and therefore economic wellbeing and in effect funding their more aggressive posturing.

Already with China's recent zero tolerance of Covid, has harmed their economic activity and possibly delayed by a further decade or so their predicted 'eventual' overtaking over the USA GDP. The more Europe and the US reverse their previous industrial offshoring, the greater the possibility that China may economically contract and may be contained without resorting to conflict. Who knows for certain how this is all going to play out, but the location of future economic activity may be key in all of this.