Talk Morgan Forums Community The Malvern Arms Covid-19

There are plenty of ways to evidence breaking a future two week quarantine, aside from neighbours grassing you up.

Such as vehicle monitoring of the car itself, or number plate recognition, mobile phone location, credit card use. I doubt many returnees would be singled out for this but if you get the virus after returning, and someone back chases contacts, evidence like that would be looked at, assuming officials have time.

No way! I'm not falling for that one again

The Police are incapable of policing fraud due to lack of resources and will power, relying on the useless 'Action Fraud' contact centre thus allowing fraud to thrive.

Monitoring hundreds of thousands of returning holiday makers ain't going to happen - it would have to be voluntary. But how could anyone who works have a week away abroad then two further weeks off work? - Unworkable for employees and self employed.

Staycations might be a good boost for the UK economy though.

Will be interesting to see how it pans out.

We have had the returning self isolation for almost two months here and it has worked.

I have not continued to do daily update as it all gets a bit boring after a while. The figures for Italy are continuing to fall and the curves are taking a definite downward trend. I think today may be the first day that there are more people declared cured than there are new cases. The numbers of people currently positive, hospitalised with symptoms, in intensive care and the number deceased all continue to fall day by day. The next phase with a little opening of restrictions will start on the 4th of May. Not a great deal changes but there will be a slight lifting of some restrictions. Everyone is concerned that if too many restrictions are lifted too early the whole thing will start again.

Covid 19 - Data 28 April, at 6 pm

There are 201,505 total cases since the beginning of the pandemic:

105,205 people currently positive
27,359 deceased
68,941 healed

Variations from the previous bulletin:

+2,091 new positive cases
+282 deceased
+2,317 cured

Among the 105,205 currently positive (- 608):

83,619 are in home isolation (+115)
19,723 hospitalised with symptoms (- 630)
1,863 in intensive care (- 93)

There were 1,846,934 (+ 57,272) swabs carried out.

Watching the latest live update from the govt team tonight they are not very keen on loosening the grip on our lockdown mainly due to the scientists apprehension on what is safe . They are reminding us that the virus is here and it isn't going away , the only thing keeping the figures in any sort of control if thats possible is social distancing . So how do we do transport and travel and getting about without coming into contact with everyone going forward into the coming months ?

They are trying to institute a system on public transport where people have to maintain social distance. Given that just like everywhere our trains and buses are normally jam packed in peak hour this promises to be interesting. At the moment on trains they are talking about booked seats only. In anticipation of the possibility to travel to other regions for people to join their families all seats out of Milan in the next few weeks are already booked out. Most likely when then they arrive they will be asked to go into voluntery quarantine.

As for the statistics the curve continues its downward trend.

Covid-19 - Data 29 April, 6 p.m.

There are 203,591 total cases since the beginning of the pandemic:

104,657 people currently positive
27,682 deceased
71,252 healed

Variations from the previous bulletin:

+2086 new positive cases
+323 deceased
+2,311 cured
Among the 104,657 currently positive (-548):

83,652 are in solitary confinement at home (+33)
19,210 hospitalized with symptoms (- 513)
1,795 in intensive care (- 68)

1,910,761 (+ 63,827) swabs were taken.

And a word from Willi over on the excellent German Morgan group on FB, don't forget those employed in the oldest profession in the world

The UK lockdown is starting to unravel.

In Salisbury I see more and more cars on the road, people on the pavement, groups of people chatting, maintaining a "sort of social separation".
Small businesses are returning to work, most building sites are now active.

With B&Q and other DIY stores with garden centres opening in one way or another the population is taking the matter into their hands.
A member of ACPO has said that the Police don't feel able to enforce the unenforceable, it was reported in the Telegraph on April 29th
Remember, unlike most of Europe, the UK is policed by consent, not by imposition. I haven't seen any indication that the Police are out in rural South Wiltshire enforcing the lockdown since it started, and I've been out in one car or another almost every day. It may be different in urban areas.

To be honest, the virus hasn't altered my behavior one bit, other than wearing gloves when shopping and keeping away from the great unwashed in Tesco.
Tesco staff are doing nothing to make people follow the arrows, mainly because those ignoring it are part of the black, Asian and minority ethnic peoples, (BAME) so the staff don't want to be accused of prejudice.

I believe that many businesses are using their advertisements to deal with this virus as a cynical marketing tool, rather than because they really care. I also believe that despite the government support measures there will be massive redundancies in the leisure and hospitality sector, British Airways has just announced that 25% of its staff will have to go, because they see a 5 year recovery of travel, not a quick return. Virgin and Lufthansa are both desperate for Government support, I doubt they will get it.

It is also worth note that it was reported today that the NHS confirms that the virus impacts disproportionately BAME staff, and that they are conducting a risk assessment to see if they should stop BAME staff from working in intensive care areas. As BAME people make up between 20 and 40% of NHS staff this will be difficult. Another analysis stated that if you are over 60, from a BAME background and overweight, with metabolic syndrome should you go into hospital the death rate is worse than Ebola.

The virus is never going completely away, but over the summer it will fade away to a large degree as it doesn't do well when the weather is warm and humid, one reason why New Zealand and much of central america and africa were so little infected. The Southern hemisphere will suffer through their winter, our summer. It is becoming clear that sensitivity to the virus is largely genetically mediated, with the result that elements of the BAME community are disproportionately impacted by the virus. A further kicker is the low level inflammation of an indvidual, cause by air pollution, eating hyper processed foods and certain lifestyle traits. My view is that the global food industry is as much responsible for the deaths as anything else.

It is also interesting that the Swiss have concluded the virus doesn't spread amongst younger, prepubescent children as they lack enough of the cell surface receptors that the virus attached to. So the young can hug grandparents and go back to school. This story was repeated in the Telegraph today 30th April.

There will be a second European phase over this winter, more will die, but not as many as the first cycle as the most sensitive have already died. In the summer of 2021 the virus will fade away again, and for the winter of 2021/2022 there will be effective vaccines.

(If this analysis doesn't fit with your belief that you need to hide, well, I'm sorry: I'm a rational scientist, not a Guardian reader).