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Originally Posted by Peter J
Originally Posted by Neptune
Today it appears that you can get get it twice and the second time it can be worse, this needs far more investigation before proven as fact.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/...-cases-latest-study-vaccine-b990859.html

For the purpose of discussion, let’s assume it’s true. How does herd immunity work if the herd keep getting it and it gets worse each time they contract it eventually the herd dies out.


If it proven to be true then no vaccine will work for long, if at all.

In the UK the Medical Research Council funded the Common Cold Research Unit between 1946 and 1989. Its mission? To find a cure for the common cold, about 10% of colds are caused by a corona virus related to Covid. They failed.
More, here:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Common_Cold_Unit


But we do have a working flu jab that alters as the virus alters to give a high degree of protection to those that receive it, which I thought was the whole point of having so many companies producing different anti Covid inoculations. We will need recurring inoculations on a regular basis, what and when none of us including scientists know. I can see a future when you will only be allowed certain services, flights, access to venues if you can produce an inoculation certificate.

Originally Posted by PeterG
Quite possibly and the alternative is? Stay indoors and we all die of starvation?
Originally Posted by Neptune
Today it appears that you can get get it twice and the second time it can be worse, this needs far more investigation before proven as fact.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/...-cases-latest-study-vaccine-b990859.html

For the purpose of discussion, let’s assume it’s true. How does herd immunity work if the herd keep getting it and it gets worse each time they contract it eventually the herd dies out.


Quite possibly and the alternative is? Stay indoors and we all die of starvation? Or do we just sacrifice the poor to pick our food and deliver it to our doorsteps. Who will pay the taxes to pay the pensions or fund the NHS? Society has some hard choices to make, there is no getting away from the terrible fact that people get ill and die. If we can all try and stick to the social/hygiene guidelines then less will become ill 1st, 2nd or 3rd time around, bit like the flu...


I'm afraid I don't know what the alternative that will resolve all this is, nor do any scientists. My thoughts are that we should have had a two week "circuit breaker" with a fixed start and finish (over the half term break?), with some additional precautions on reopening. For what its worth in my opinion reinforcing social distancing and more mask use should be part of that. We need to find a way to keep the economy going until a vaccine is available but personally I don't think that includes locking down everyone over 60 (from Barrington "Retired people living at home should have groceries and other essentials delivered to their home. When possible, they should meet family members outside rather than inside") whilst risking long term health problems in those that do catch it possibly totally overwhelming the NHS. Barrington also depends on people acting intelligently and responsibly which sadly many people (a minority but still a substantial number) can't be trusted to do.
Originally Posted by Image
Neptune .... we can't read too much into a 1 in 37 million happening (if indeed it is a happening and not an unfortunate sequence of false readings ) .... nature is messy and loves rare and random exceptions .... like rare allergies and conjoined twins .... until it is proven that a statistically significant number of the population get quickly reinfected it's an outlier ..... this virus is under a microscope globally (both literally and metaphorically) so anomalies are more likely to be spotted than in other outbreaks .... doesn't mean it's necessarily something novel and sinister ... just that we never looked hard enough before to spot the anomalies elsewhere.( or they were seen as scientific curiosities rather than something to be blared out by speculative early 21st century media)

K


I agree with you, which is why I put "needs more investigation before proven as fact" and "For the purpose of discussion, lets assume its true"

And finally before I lay down in a darkened room. On the subject of herd immunity:

The projection is a worst case scenario.
This could put the lives of 8.4 million Africans at risk if immunity was to be achieved naturally, Africa CDC added.
Herd immunity is a situation in which a sufficient proportion of a population is immune to an infectious disease through vaccination and/or prior illness to make its spread from person to person unlikely.
Wessam Mankoula, the incident manager for Covid-19 at the Africa CDC, told the BBC that the risk of deliberately giving the virus an avenue to spread will come at a high human cost.
“In a continent of more than 1.2 billion people, this will mean that we will let the infection get to between 720 – 840 million people to reach this herd immunity,” Dr Mankoula said.

As it appears my opinions have irritated so many, I shall bow out and make no further comment.
Cheering commences amongst those gathered smile

Last edited by Neptune; 13/10/20 06:23 PM.