Well the EU will do what it is going to do.
Already UK and EU trade has fallen both ways in the 2021 1st Quarter, yet imports from the ROW have gone up. Not surprising as UK:EU trade was always overstated by what is known as the Rotterdam effect, that is UK ROW trade that was consolidated for shipment to/from Rotterdam was treated as an UK:EU movement not a UK:ROW movement. So now to avoid border crossings that via Rotterdam trade is now increasingly coming direct to/from the UK.
Increasingly, from what I read the Financial Services sector is developing a global approach, not waiting for EU playing silly buggers over equivalence. The real threat apparently going forward to London is not the EU but HK and Singapore, whilst we may lose some trade to the EU, already there are reports that they cannot recruit locally the skill sets necessary in Frankfurt and Paris.
Covid has changed priorities and apparently eg many NY bankers have now moved to Florida during the lockdown for better quality of life.....a trend being experienced around the world that may undermine traditional finance centres.
We do have a long way to go and its more than just the EU, but the increasing advancement of AI and automation which is expected to replace upto 40% of the current jobs within a decade. Add to that the work mobility caused by WFH will lead to migration of work to the lowest cost base.........
Last edited by JohnHarris; 13/05/21 12:28 PM.
