Tim,
I changed my post and included in from UK Government sources the 2018 UK Overall energy consumption and importation stats, unfortunately whilst you were responding. It amplifies in a common value energy consumption in TWh. All the sources I use are from either Government or Hansards. This isn't just electricity supply but all energy forms.
regards
OK, IF we were to try to replace 881TWh/year of gas consumption with centrally-generated electricity we would need a shedload more generation capacity than we currently have, but I don't know of any strategy document that is actually proposing that.
To my understanding the bulk of the replacement is planned to come from conversion to hydrogen, and other non-traditional gases like Biomethane. There is also usage reduction, heat pumps and localised CHP that are growing as alternatives.
This is a really useful overview of the current strategy in this area:
https://www.nationalgrid.com/sites/...trategy%20For%20Consultation%20Final.pdfInterestingly, this document also touches on the potential to replace petrol/diesel used in transport with lower-carbon gas alternatives.
I'm not accusing you of this, but it does seem that there are some people out there loudly declaring that our climate target can never be met and that it's somehow nonsensical to try, whilst at the same time there are loads and loads of highly skilled and talented engineers in the energy industry who are quite happily figuring out and implementing ways of achieving it.
My particular involvement was in helping to design the new business models needed to support concepts like virtual power plants so that individual micro-generators can take an active part in the supply market through leveraging their investment in home solar, batteries, and EVs.
I can't help thinking that the fossil fuel lobby is responsible for peddling a lot of this negative spinning, I can't think who else's interests would be served by briefing against the truly innovative work being done by our energy scientists and engineers.
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