[PaulV .... I agree with a lot of what you say .... however not point 1
...The idea that the sort of energy useage from petroleum (grey line) could be accommodated by 'winding back' the slight recent decine in electricty consumption (orange line) seems optimistic ...... replacing fossil fuels for transport would wipe out our current total electricity generating capacity from all sources more than twice over .... and our electricity is already fully utilised running stuff like industry, hospitals and people's homes, so the required increase in capacity in the short (in the context of major infrastructure projects) timescales seems somewhat challenging
K
Interesting, but I think the report you are quoting covers transportation in general not just cars.
From
https://www.autocar.co.uk/car-news/advice/how-national-grid-will-work-electric-cars First off, energy demand is lower now than it has been for years. The highest demand in the last couple of decades peaked in 2002 at 62GW and has now fallen to just over 50GW thanks to improvements in efficiency. National Grid estimates that even if there was an overnight switch to EVs, the increase in overall demand would only amount to 10 percent. This year, due to Covid measures, demand has fallen by another five percent and National Grid ESO (Electricity System Operator) predicts 44.7GW peak demand this winter.The UK capacity has also been closed down, all coal fired power stations are now being mothballed early. Recently we have a spell of calm windless weather and we had an acute shortage of electricity generation, leaving us scrambling for electricity supply. We are still reliant on the French supplying electricity via the The National Grid and its French counterpart, RTE, already own a 2GW interconnector between the two countries which has been in use since 1986.
Its cable provide a valuable source of energy at a time when coal-fired stations were being closed down and planned new gas and nuclear installations were yet to be built. However, we may see some capacity free up when the Irish interconnector (uses upto 10% of UK total capacity) is switched off as the Irish look to France with their new interconnector.
The UK is far from being self sufficient on electricity generation and leaves us exposed to becalmed weather, disputes and price hikes with our continental neighbours. Last projection I noted was that electricity demand would double by 2050.
In 2018 the UK remained a net importer of energy (all types, gas, electricity, oil and coal) at 36 per cent, down marginally from 2017. In 2018 the UK was a net importer of all main fuel types, we only produced 64% of our total energy needs.
To put 2018 energy consumption into context using a similar value ......for natural gas and electricity
Natural gas demand increased by 0.9 per cent to 881 TWh compared with 2017. In contrast, gas demand for transformation, including electricity and heat generation, was down 4.2 per cent on 2017.
Main electricity generation and supply statistics:
• There was a 0.3 per cent drop in the total supply of electricity in the UK in 2018, to 352 TWh, as demand fell. Indigenous electricity supply fell 1.6 per cent while net imports of electricity rose by 29 per cent, to 19.1 TWh, with a return to more typical imports from France following interconnector damage and a price spike in 2017. The UK remained a net importer of electricity in 2018.
• Final consumption of electricity was stable at 300 TWh, remaining at its lowest level
So to replace the natural gas with electricity for heating, electricity generation etc we have to generate an extra 881 TWh of electricty and in 2018 we produced domestically electricity generation of about 330 TWh,
That doesn't take into account the and not to mention the electricity to replace oil for transport.
If electricity has to replace the energy consumed from other sources eg oil, gas ,this is not resolved yet by any stretch of the imagination and lead in times for such major projects are not conducive to early resolution anytime soon..
