death in those over 50 who have accounted for all but ~1200 of the deaths seen in the UK to-date.
The vast majority of these folks have all been vaccinated with the 1st dose, and over 2.5m with both doses, so the risk of NHS being overwhelmed is eliminated, isn't it?
I wish things could be so absolute in relation to a new deadly infectious disease. If nothing changes going forward then yes the risk of the NHS being overwhelmed should have been eliminated. However, the chance that everywhere in the world will be in the relatively safe position that the UK is approaching, with its fantastically successful vaccine role out, in the next couple of years is as close to zero as makes no difference. Consequently there will be a remaining risk that new virus variants able to escape the current vaccine based protection will arrive and the selective pressure on the virus driving the appearance and spread of such variants will be maximised in those countries, such as the UK, whose population have the highest level vaccine based protection. If such variants arise then we are essentially in a foot race between the development and deployment of new vaccines able to combat such variants and the spread of the new variant in the population and this will dictate whether we return to a situation in which the NHS approaches being overwhelmed.
If you want an example of our relative success in such a foot race, you need look no further than influenza virus. At the end of each winter a decision is taken on what new virus variant circulated in the past winter and that variant forms the basis for developing a modified influenza vaccine to be used as a booster vaccine for those of us of advancing years in the autumn to maximise the level of protection against influenza virus based disease in the coming winter. Despite the success of running this foot race we are still faced with 8-10000 influenza virus based deaths in a typical UK winter.
Again, hope this is informative and useful.
Best regards and stay safe.
Malcolm
