Provisioning has always been based on a combination of statistical analysis and common sense. There will never be the capacity to cater for a worst case scenario. The electricity network is based on provisioning rules that worked very well until now.
Precisely. National Grid and the supply companies have got many decades of experience at modelling demand, projecting it into the future, and planning the necessary network and generation capacity to support it.
Whilst I was consulting with EDF over the last 12 years or so I had the privilege to meet and work with teams of analysts and innovators who were all astonishingly knowledgeable about all aspects of the work and in whom I had complete confidence. They all shared the same level of cautious optimism about the industry's ability to cope with the projected rise in EV usage. People are already able to take advantage of cheaper electricity supply deals if they tailor their consumption patterns to suit patterns of demand.
It's certainly true that if everyone in the UK went out tomorrow, bought an EV and expected to use it to the same levels of high-mileage patterns we saw in the 20th century then the network would be unable to cope. But that's not what's going to happen. EV takeup is accelerating, but so are other reductions in electricity consumption (the move to LEDs has made a massive difference, just to name one example). The other big thing is the huge growth we are seeing in remote and teleworking, which is also having a big impact in terms of private mileage.
And don't forget (let's face it, I'm always banging on about it so how could you?) the refining of petroleum uses absolutely massive amounts of electricity which won't be needed as we cut our fossil fuel usage.
ICE cars will be around for years to come, and will always be available for those rich enough to be able to afford to run them. But it's not only cost that will turn most people away from ICE vehicles, the social pressures are already growing. In 15 years time petrolheads will be viewed like smokers or drug users are today.
