Originally Posted by TBM
This is a good article about how the number of cases in schools are already escalating: Covid in School

On the plus side, the vast majority of kids are asymptomatic. They have 10 days at home, and then come back in.

On the minus side, it all adds to the figure, so may affect potential 'release dates' for lockdown, and they go home to infect family members.

Can't offer any solutions - I much prefer having the kids in school, and teaching face to face (or is it mask to mask wink )



As you say although thankfully the vast majority of young people infected by SARS-Cov2 have an asymptomatic infection they do contribute to overall numbers, the major downside of which is raising the risk of a new virus variant that shows reduced sensitivity to the immunity induced by current vaccines arising thereby increasing the possibility of both increased levels of Covid19 based hospitalisation and death in those over 50 who have accounted for all but ~1200 of the deaths seen in the UK to-date. It is important to remember that whilst current vaccines have very good levels of efficacy it is not 100% and it is still not clear the precise degree to which a fully vaccinated person is protected from being infected as opposed to being protected from disease. This means that as the fantastically successful vaccination programme in the UK reaches its conclusion any spread of infection from asymptomatic children will be into vaccinated adults where the major selective pressure on the virus will be for virus variants able to escape the immunity induced by the vaccines in the current vaccines.

It is also important to remember that all of the current licensed vaccines induce immunity against a single virion protein, the external peplomer or spike protein, using a variety of technologies that have in some cases only become available in the last few years (<5). This contrasts with traditional vaccine development strategies of the type used in Jenner's original smallpox vaccine or current poliovirus vaccines, where immunization is with whole virions, either live attenuated (Sabin's oral polio vaccine) or chemically inactivated (Salk's original polio vaccine). Whilst the new technologies used have crucial advantages in terms of speed and simplicity of modification and there is strong evidence from earlier work on both the original SARS-1 virus, MERS and some animal coronaviruses (eg: feline perotinitis virus) that spike is the predominant target that induces a protective immune response (what is often referred to in vaccine literature as the correlate of protection); it is also true that if you broaden the spectrum of viral proteins used in a vaccine formulation then you have a better chance that the broader immunity induced will be able to continue to provide protective immunity particularly if it transpires that some of the protective immunity generated by infection is directed against viral proteins other than spike protein. This is particularly true when detailed characterisation of the protective immune response to SARS-Cov2 infection has not yet been completed.

Finally with daily new infections seemingly having stabilised under current levels of lock-down at ~5000 a day, it is almost certainly unrealistic to expect any track/trace/isolate, much less the still only partially effective UK system, to be able to contain the spread of a new vaccine resistant virus variant if and when it is generated. Hence the importance of sticking to the 'slow and steady' roadmap for relaxation of restrictions.

Hope you find this information from a retired virologist useful.

Keep calm and stay safe.

Malcolm

smile smile