An interesting comment from a statistician.
Back in March-May the volume of testing in the UK was small, only people in hospital or health care workers were able to access tests. But we have no idea what rate of positive tests there were, expressed as a percentage of both tests completed, hospital admissions and deaths. Now in September the number of tests undertaken is enormously greater, but still we don't know the rate of positive tests there were, expressed as a percentage of both tests completed, hospital admissions and deaths.
All we see are more positive cases, and unclear indications that hospital cases are not increasing as the experts predicted.
The report from the independent statistician suggested that if the volume of testing in March-May was at the same level as today we would have seen over 100,000 positive cases per day.
At the moment it is less than 5000, which is why, I believe, why the sickness and death rate isn't increasing at the rate that "Doomster Hancock" was predicting.
Another scientist has commented that the virus is evolving so that it can more efficiently infect us, but doesn't kill us. That is natural selection: I expect that the 3rd wave in the spring, coupled with a vaccine, will be of no real consequence.
COVID 19 will end up like flu, annually culling the old and the frail, but leaving the healthy only slightly unwell.
Remember, in the UK winter Flu kills 10,000 to 15,000 every year.
