I may have posted this before so apologies.
Dealing with Covid19 is about risk management. Balancing actions versus effectiveness.
The virus is not going anywhere so any and all measures that contribute to a package that restricts spread or deals with localised flare ups will vary, be brought in and relaxed. The three basics of mask+social distancing+ hand washing each contribute increments that add together. Removing one increases the risk.
The initial lockdown was promoted as “save the nhs” to avoid meltdown due to massive case increases. It looks like it worked as the Nightingale centres were largely little used. Unfortunately there were gaps, notably care homes where particularly vulnerable people were left behind.
So, if/when a vaccine is developed then the risk of relaxing lockdown is eased. It compares to flu in many ways. We accept the risk and take up flu jabs if in identified vulnerable categories.
The handling (read mishandling) of informing people is appalling. Too many politicians using political bluster. Too many “health experts” doing similar. The clearly ridiculous claim of getting a world beating track and trace system is a disgrace. The late climbdown after the uproar over 10.00pm pub closure over closing the bar in Westminster shows the arrogance and elitism of politicians. The lack of nationwide standard measures has added to confusion. Wales/Scotland/NI governments have been clearer than Westminster...but only just. Westminster seems to be relaxing faster, accepting greater risk than the 3 devolved areas. If all are listening to the science then how many versions are there to create differences?
Enough....I have a book to read!
As you imply, its a statistical game. Even if only 50% of the pop follow the guidlines its still better than zero. Same with the tracking and trace where significant numbers give false contact details and others refuse to isolate - but many do behave responsibly. We need to recognise that managing this epidemic isnt about the medical issues. Those are well known. Its about managing the population, getting people who are used to doing just what they want into doing what the medics want as much as possible. And this is where the nefgativity and cynicism spread by the media is really damaging. The virus is a war issue, not a military one but a health one. And spreading alarm and despondency a la BBC ought to be a criminal offence IMO.
As for the communications I part agree. The "save the NHS" line wasnt about the NHS but an attempt to get a public response using the lever of an institution that the public value.They were always more likely to stick to the rules to save the NHS than to do so because the government asked them to do so. But the rest of the communications has been dire. Instead of having just one spokesman the government has passed the buck around every minister who fancied a TV spot. Inevitably, media trying to cause problems could focus on ministers saying slightly different things from each other. Then instead of keeping the m,essage and rules simple and clear, the government allowed academic medics to complicate things, no doubt after long working committee meetings when the conclusions are tailored to give every member something he things is his contribution. Put it another way - in battle you dont have a committee of commanders all giving different strategies.
In the final analysis, we are neither doing much better or much worse than other similar countries in tackling an issue for which there currently is no viable solution. As in a war we are going to have casualties.
