Beg to disagree, M3W55.
Whilst you are right, when people were allowed to mix in the past the numbers shot up this time there is a massive difference: As of 24 Feb almost 16m people have been vaccinated once and 0.5m twice. Evidence from vaccinations in December and January shows clearly the protective effect of a single vaccination, with over 85% reduction in hospitalisations in the group vaccinated, against the previously experienced levels. More data is arriving from PHE next week that will extend the sample to include February.
The second vaccination is "belt and braces and may not add much protection.
In my local area infection rates have fallen to a level that PHE doesn't report them, hospital admissions are falling like a stone and likewise deaths.
The BIG test will be the impact of school return. If there is no subsequent spike and the rates continue to drop through April and May then the Governments June target is sensible.
But if there is a spike after the schools return we are going to have to wait until everyone over 18 is vaccinated. The vaccines may be approved for 16 to 18 year olds, but it will not be tried on younger children under the existing plans.
COVID will never be over, just as Influenza will never be over. Er will have booster COVID vaccinations every year, covering any new, emerging strains. Like Flu, it will kill 5,000 to 20,000 per year. We just have to learn to live (and die) with it.
