Talk Morgan Forums Community The Malvern Arms Covid-19

The UK lockdown is starting to unravel.

In Salisbury I see more and more cars on the road, people on the pavement, groups of people chatting, maintaining a "sort of social separation".
Small businesses are returning to work, most building sites are now active.

With B&Q and other DIY stores with garden centres opening in one way or another the population is taking the matter into their hands.
A member of ACPO has said that the Police don't feel able to enforce the unenforceable, it was reported in the Telegraph on April 29th
Remember, unlike most of Europe, the UK is policed by consent, not by imposition. I haven't seen any indication that the Police are out in rural South Wiltshire enforcing the lockdown since it started, and I've been out in one car or another almost every day. It may be different in urban areas.

To be honest, the virus hasn't altered my behavior one bit, other than wearing gloves when shopping and keeping away from the great unwashed in Tesco.
Tesco staff are doing nothing to make people follow the arrows, mainly because those ignoring it are part of the black, Asian and minority ethnic peoples, (BAME) so the staff don't want to be accused of prejudice.

I believe that many businesses are using their advertisements to deal with this virus as a cynical marketing tool, rather than because they really care. I also believe that despite the government support measures there will be massive redundancies in the leisure and hospitality sector, British Airways has just announced that 25% of its staff will have to go, because they see a 5 year recovery of travel, not a quick return. Virgin and Lufthansa are both desperate for Government support, I doubt they will get it.

It is also worth note that it was reported today that the NHS confirms that the virus impacts disproportionately BAME staff, and that they are conducting a risk assessment to see if they should stop BAME staff from working in intensive care areas. As BAME people make up between 20 and 40% of NHS staff this will be difficult. Another analysis stated that if you are over 60, from a BAME background and overweight, with metabolic syndrome should you go into hospital the death rate is worse than Ebola.

The virus is never going completely away, but over the summer it will fade away to a large degree as it doesn't do well when the weather is warm and humid, one reason why New Zealand and much of central america and africa were so little infected. The Southern hemisphere will suffer through their winter, our summer. It is becoming clear that sensitivity to the virus is largely genetically mediated, with the result that elements of the BAME community are disproportionately impacted by the virus. A further kicker is the low level inflammation of an indvidual, cause by air pollution, eating hyper processed foods and certain lifestyle traits. My view is that the global food industry is as much responsible for the deaths as anything else.

It is also interesting that the Swiss have concluded the virus doesn't spread amongst younger, prepubescent children as they lack enough of the cell surface receptors that the virus attached to. So the young can hug grandparents and go back to school. This story was repeated in the Telegraph today 30th April.

There will be a second European phase over this winter, more will die, but not as many as the first cycle as the most sensitive have already died. In the summer of 2021 the virus will fade away again, and for the winter of 2021/2022 there will be effective vaccines.

(If this analysis doesn't fit with your belief that you need to hide, well, I'm sorry: I'm a rational scientist, not a Guardian reader).